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| List of Figures and Tables | |
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| Acknowledgments | |
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| Preface | |
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| Introduction and Overview | |
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| Chinese Investment Cycles and the World Economy | |
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| Models of China | |
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| Truth from Facts | |
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| An Overview of the Book | |
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| Investment with Chinese Characteristics | |
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| Investment in the Chinese Economy: A Long Look Back at Theory and Practice | |
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| The Meaning of Public Ownership | |
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| State-Owned Inputs: Land, Credit, and Public Goods | |
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| The State as Investor | |
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| Controlling the Commanding Heights | |
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| Wither the Private Sector? | |
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| Freewheeling Socialism | |
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| Socialist Booms and Busts | |
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| Models of the Cycle | |
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| Keynes' Animal Spirits Model | |
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| The Marxist Model | |
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| The Accelerator/Multiplier Model | |
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| The Austrian Model | |
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| The Lucas Imperfect Information Model | |
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| The Real Business-Cycle Model | |
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| Obstacles to Central Planning | |
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| Booms and Busts under Socialism | |
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| Investment Fluctuations in Pre-reform China (1949-1977) | |
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| Small-Scale Industry and Decentralized Planning | |
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| Self-sufficiency as Mercantilism | |
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| Reestablishing Central Control | |
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| Socialist Animal Spirits | |
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| A History of the Cycle | |
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| Leaping Outward and Pulling Back (1978-1983) | |
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| Clambering Out of the Plan (1984-1992) | |
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| From Southern Tour to Long Landing (1993-2002) | |
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| Overheating and Magic Weapons (2003-2008) | |
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| Growth at Any Cost (2009) | |
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| Investment as an Engine of Growth | |
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| Warped Incentives and "Second-Best" Efficiency | |
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| Tax-Revenue Maximization and "Track-Record" Building | |
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| Redundant Capacity and Inefficient Investment | |
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| Competing for Investment | |
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| Investment as a Vehicle for Corruption | |
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| A "Second-Best" Case for Intervention | |
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| Banking and Finance Run Amok | |
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| Policy-Driven Lending | |
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| The Failure of Governance Reform | |
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| Lax Due Diligence and Speculative Investment | |
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| Collusion, Risk Management, and Prudential Supervision | |
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| Money as a Creature of the State | |
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| Taking Away the Ladle | |
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| Interest Rate Dilemmas | |
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| Sterilizing Hot Money | |
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| Differential Liquidity Management | |
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| Controlling Credit by Fiat | |
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| The Future of Chinese Monetary Policy | |
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| Suppressing "Blind" Investment | |
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| Industrial Policy: Beijing's Paper Tiger | |
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| Real Estate: Treating the Symptoms | |
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| Political Competition: A Substitute for Market Forces | |
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| The Limits of Direct Intervention | |
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| Scientific Development: Master Plan or Myth? | |
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| Indigenous Innovation and Intensive Growth | |
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| Getting the Incentives Wrong | |
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| Income Inequality and Consumption | |
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| Chinese and Soviet Precedents: A History of Failure | |
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| "Fifth Generation" Computers: A Japanese Precedent | |
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| Theories of Intensive Growth | |
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| Unscientific Socialism | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Politics in Command | |
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| Development Without Freedom | |
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| Notes | |
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| Bibliography | |
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| Index | |