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Business Cycles Theory, History, Indications, and Forecasting

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ISBN-10: 0226978907

ISBN-13: 9780226978901

Edition: 1992

Authors: Victor Zarnowitz

List price: $153.00
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Description:

This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
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Book details

List price: $153.00
Copyright year: 1992
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Publication date: 6/15/1992
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 614
Size: 6.25" wide x 9.25" long x 1.50" tall
Weight: 2.244
Language: English

Acknowledgments
Preface
Theories and Evidence
Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview
Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective
Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations
Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements
Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau
History and Measurement
How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction
Business Cycles and Growth
The Regularity of Business Cycles
Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy
Indicators
Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses
Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators
Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes
Forecasting
On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions
An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts
The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts
Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction
The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting
References
Author Index
Subject Index