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| About the Author | |
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| About the Contributors | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Acknowledgments | |
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| Philosophy of Technical Analysis | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Philosophy or Rationale | |
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| Technical versus Fundamental Forecasting | |
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| Analysis versus Timing | |
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| Flexibility and Adaptability of Technical Analysis | |
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| Technical Analysis Applied to Different Trading Mediums | |
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| Technical Analysis Applied to Different Time Dimensions | |
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| Economic Forecasting | |
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| Technician or Chartist? | |
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| A Brief Comparison of Technical Analysis in Stocks and Futures | |
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| Less Reliance on Market Averages and Indicators | |
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| Some Criticisms of the Technical Approach | |
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| Random Walk Theory | |
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| Universal Principles | |
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| Dow Theory | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Basic Tenets | |
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| The Use of Closing Prices and the Presence of Lines | |
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| Some Criticisms of Dow Theory | |
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| Stocks as Economic Indicators | |
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| Dow Theory Applied to Futures Trading | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Chart Construction | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Types of Charts Available | |
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| Candlesticks | |
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| Arithmetic versus Logarithmic Scale | |
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| Construction of the Daily Bar Chart | |
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| Volume | |
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| Futures Open Interest | |
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| Weekly and Monthly Bar Charts | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Basic Concepts of Trend | |
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| Definition of Trend | |
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| Trend Has Three Directions | |
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| Trend Has Three Classifications | |
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| Support and Resistance | |
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| Trendlines | |
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| The Fan Principle | |
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| The Importance of the Number Three | |
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| The Relative Steepness of the Trendline | |
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| The Channel Line | |
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| Percentage Retracements | |
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| Speed Resistance Lines | |
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| Gann and Fibonacci Fan Lines | |
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| Internal Trendlines | |
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| Reversal Days | |
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| Price Gaps | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Major Reversal Patterns | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Price Patterns | |
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| Two Types of Patterns: Reversal and Continuation | |
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| The Head and Shoulders Reversal Pattern | |
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| The Importance of Volume | |
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| Finding a Price Objective | |
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| The Inverse Head and Shoulders | |
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| Complex Head and Shoulders | |
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| Triple Tops and Bottoms | |
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| Double Tops and Bottoms | |
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| Variations from the Ideal Pattern | |
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| Saucers and Spikes | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Continuation Patterns | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Triangles | |
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| The Symmetrical Triangle | |
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| The Ascending Triangle | |
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| The Descending Triangle | |
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| The Broadening Formation | |
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| Flags and Pennants | |
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| The Wedge Formation | |
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| The Rectangle Formation | |
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| The Measured Move | |
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| The Continuation Head and Shoulders Pattern | |
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| Confirmation and Divergence | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Volume and Open Interest | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Volume and Open Interest as Secondary Indicators | |
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| Interpretation of Volume for All Markets | |
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| Interpretation of Open Interest in Futures | |
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| Summary of Volume and Open Interest Rules | |
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| Blowoffs and Selling Climaxes | |
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| Commitments of Traders Report | |
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| Watch the Commercials | |
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| Net Trader Positions | |
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| Open Interest In Options | |
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| Put/Call Ratios | |
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| Combine Option Sentiment With Technicals | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Long Term Charts | |
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| Introduction | |
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| The Importance of Longer Range Perspective | |
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| Construction of Continuation Charts for Futures | |
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| The Perpetual Contract | |
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| Long Term Trends Dispute Randomness | |
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| Patterns on Charts: Weekly and Monthly Reversals | |
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| Long Term to Short Term Charts | |
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| Why Should Long Range Charts Be Adjusted for Inflation? | |
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| Long Term Charts Not Intended for Trading Purposes | |
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| Examples of Long Term Charts | |
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| Moving Averages | |
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| Introduction | |
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| The Moving Average: A Smoothing Device with a Time Lag | |
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| Moving Average Envelopes | |
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| Bollinger Bands | |
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| Using Bollinger Bands as Targets | |
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| Band Width Measures Volatility | |
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| Moving Averages Tied to Cycles | |
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| Fibonacci Numbers Used as Moving Averages | |
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| Moving Averages Applied to Long Term Charts | |
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| The Weekly Rule | |
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| To Optimize or Not | |
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| Summary | |
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| The Adaptive Moving Average | |
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| Alternatives to the Moving Average | |
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| Oscillators and Contrary Opinion | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Oscillator Usage in Conjunction with Trend | |
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| Measuring Momentum | |
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| Measuring Rate of Change (ROC) | |
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| Constructing an Oscillator Using Two Moving Averages | |
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| Commodity Channel Index | |
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| The Relative Strength Index (RSI) | |
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| Using the 70 and 30 Lines to Generate Signals | |
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| Stochastics (K%D) | |
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| Larry Williams %R | |
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| The Importance of Trend | |
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| When Oscillators are Most Useful | |
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| Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) | |
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| MACD Histogram | |
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| Combine Weeklies and Dailies | |
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| The Principle of Contrary Opinion in Futures | |
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| Investor Sentiment Readings | |
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| Investors Intelligence Numbers | |
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| Point and Figure Charting | |
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| Introduction | |
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| The Point and Figure Versus the Bar Chart | |
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| Construction of the Intraday Point and Figure Chart | |
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| The Horizontal Count | |
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| Price Patterns | |
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| 3 Box Reversal Point and Figure Charting | |
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| Construction of the 3 Point Reversal Chart | |
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| The Drawing of Trendlines | |
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| Measuring Techniques | |
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| Trading Tactics | |
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| Advantages of Point and Figure Charts | |
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| PandF Technical Indicators | |
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| Computerized PandF Charting | |
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| PandF Moving Averages | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Japanese Candlesticks | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Candlestick Charting | |
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| Basic Candlesticks | |
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| Candle Pattern Analysis | |
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| Filtered Candle Patterns | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Candle Patterns | |
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| Elliott Wave Theory | |
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| Historical Background | |
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| The Basic Tenets of the Elliott Wave Principle | |
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| Connection Between Elliott Wave and Dow Theory | |
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| Corrective Waves | |
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| The Rule of Alternation | |
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| Channeling | |
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| Wave 4 as a Support Area | |
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| Fibonacci Numbers as the Basis of the Wave Principle | |
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| Fibonacci Ratios and Retracements | |
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| Fibonacci Time Targets | |
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| Combining All Three Aspects of Wave Theory | |
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| Elliott Wave Applied to Stocks Versus Commodities | |
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| Summary and Conclusions | |
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| Reference Material | |
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| Time Cycles | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Cycles | |
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| How Cyclic Concepts Help Explain Charting Techniques | |
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| Dominant Cycles | |
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| Combining Cycle Lengths | |
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| The Importance of Trend | |
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| Left and Right Translation | |
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| How to Isolate Cycles | |
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| Seasonal Cycles | |
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| Stock Market Cycles | |
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| The January Barometer | |
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| The Presidential Cycle | |
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| Combining Cycles with Other Technical Tools | |
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| Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis | |
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| Cycle Reading and Software | |
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| Computers and Trading Systems | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Some Computer Needs | |
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| Grouping Tools and Indicators | |
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| Using the Tools and Indicators | |
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| Welles Wilder's Parabolic and Directional Movement Systems | |
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| Pros and Cons of System Trading | |
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| Need Expert Help? | |
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| Test Systems or Create Your Own | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Money Management and Trading Tactics | |
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| Introduction | |
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| The Three Elements of Successful Trading | |
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| Money Management | |
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| Reward to Risk Ratios | |
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| Trading Multiple Positions: Trending versus Trading Units | |
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| What to Do After Periods of Success and Adversity | |
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| Trading Tactics | |
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| Combining Technical Factors and Money Management | |
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| Types of Trading Orders | |
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| From Daily Charts to Intraday Price Charts | |
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| The Use of Intraday Pivot Points | |
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| Summary of Money Management and Trading Guidelines | |
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| Application to Stocks | |
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| Asset Allocation | |
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| Managed Accounts and Mutual Funds | |
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| Market Profile | |
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| The Link Between Stocks and Futures: Intermarket Analysis | |
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| Intermarket Analysis | |
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| Program Trading: The Ultimate Link | |
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| The Link Between Bonds and Stocks | |
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| The Link Between Bonds and Commodities | |
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| The Link Between Commodities and the Dollar | |
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| Stock Sectors and Industry Groups | |
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| The Dollar and Large Caps | |
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| Intermarket Analysis and Mutual Funds | |
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| Relative Strength Analysis | |
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| Relative Strength and Sectors | |
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| Relative Strength and Individual Stocks | |
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| Top-Down Market Approach | |
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| Deflation Scenario | |
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| Intermarket Correlation | |
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| Intermarket Neural Network Software | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Stock Market Indicators | |
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| Measuring Market Breadth | |
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| Sample Data | |
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| Comparing Market Averages | |
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| The Advance-Decline Line | |
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| AD Divergence | |
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| Daily Versus Weekly AD Lines | |
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| Variations in AD Line | |
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| McClellan Oscillator | |
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| McClellan Summation Index | |
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| New Highs Versus New Lows | |
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| New High-New Low Index | |
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| Upside Versus Downside Volume | |
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| The Arms Index | |
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| TRIN Versus TICK | |
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| Smoothing the Arms Index | |
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| Open Arms | |
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| Equivolume Charting | |
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| Candlepower | |
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| Comparing Market Averages | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Pulling It All Together--A Checklist | |
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| Technical Checklist | |
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| How to Coordinate Technical and Fundamental Analysis | |
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| Chartered Market Technician (CMT) | |
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| Market Technicians Association (MTA) | |
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| The Global Reach of Technical Analysis | |
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| Technical Analysis by Any Name | |
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| Federal Reserve Finally Approves | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Advanced Technical Indicators | |
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| Demand Index (DI) | |
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| Herrick Payoff Index (HPI) | |
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| Starc Bands and Keltner Channels | |
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| Formula for Demand Index | |
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| Market Profile | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Market Profile Graphic | |
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| Market Structure | |
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| Market Profile Organizing Principles | |
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| Range Development and Profile Patterns | |
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| Tracking Longer Term Market Activity | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| The Essentials of Building a Trading System | |
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| 5-Step Plan | |
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| Start with a Concept (an Idea) | |
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| Turn Your Idea into a Set of Objective Rules | |
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| Visually Check It Out on the Charts | |
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| Formally Test It with a Computer | |
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| Evaluate Results | |
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| Money Management | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Continuous Futures Contracts | |
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| Nearest Contract | |
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| Next Contract | |
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| Gann Contract | |
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| Continuous Contracts | |
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| Constant Forward Continuous Contracts | |
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| Glossary | |
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| Selected Bibliography | |
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| Selected Resources | |
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| Index | |