| |
| |
Preface | |
| |
| |
| |
Getting Started | |
| |
| |
| |
A Day in the Life | |
| |
| |
Talking the Talk | |
| |
| |
Doing the Work | |
| |
| |
Taking a Position | |
| |
| |
Equity Analysis and Objectivity | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Fundamentals of Equity Valuation | |
| |
| |
GAAP-Based Financial Accounting | |
| |
| |
The Problems with GAPP Accounting | |
| |
| |
The Primacy of Return on Capital: High Times at Consolidated Imports Ltd. | |
| |
| |
Competitive Equilibrium: Troubles for Consolidated Imports Ltd. | |
| |
| |
Growth and Value: Hope Rises from the Ashes at Consolidated Imports Ltd. | |
| |
| |
Transitory Earnings: An Unexpected 10 Percent Price Increase at Consolidated Imports Ltd. | |
| |
| |
The Equivalence of Growth and Investment | |
| |
| |
Growth in Perpetuity | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Strategy and Competition I: The Firm's External Environment | |
| |
| |
Good Companies = Good Stocks? | |
| |
| |
Market Efficiency and Competitive Impediments | |
| |
| |
SWOT, Nature, and Nurture | |
| |
| |
The Generic Opportunities: Emerging to Mature Industries | |
| |
| |
Beyond Porter | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Strategy and Competition II: The Firm's Internal Competitive Resources | |
| |
| |
The Porter Approach: Cost Leadership, Differentiation, and Focus | |
| |
| |
The Resource View: What about Internal Resources? | |
| |
| |
Sustaining Resource Heterogeneity | |
| |
| |
Operational Effectiveness Is Not Strategy | |
| |
| |
The VRIO System | |
| |
| |
A Dynamic View: Renewal and Erosion of Advantage | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Fundamentals of Stock Behavior | |
| |
| |
A Thought Experiment: The Haugen Methodology | |
| |
| |
The Evidence Suggests Market Bias Is Real, Maybe | |
| |
| |
Implications for Investment Styles | |
| |
| |
Efficient and Inefficient Markets | |
| |
| |
If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? | |
| |
| |
Maybe Keynes Was Right | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
The Basic Tools | |
| |
| |
| |
Reading a Financial Statement: The Accuracy, Sustainability, and Predictability of Financial Information | |
| |
| |
Financial Misreporting: The Seven Shenanigans | |
| |
| |
Facing Reality: Earnings Surprises and Analytic Inertia | |
| |
| |
Predicting performance: Nonrecurring Items | |
| |
| |
An NRI Analysis of Gateway | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
Financial Statements | |
| |
| |
| |
Gateway Financial Statements | |
| |
| |
| |
Reading a Financial Statement: The Composition of Returns | |
| |
| |
The Focus of Ratio Analysis Is ROE | |
| |
| |
Margins Reveal Operational Decisions | |
| |
| |
Turnovers Describe Investment Decisions | |
| |
| |
Leverage Is the Return Amplifier | |
| |
| |
Some Other Ratio Issues | |
| |
| |
Connecting Strategy to Value | |
| |
| |
The Composition of Returns | |
| |
| |
Gateway Time Series Analysis | |
| |
| |
Dell Computer in Its Industry Context | |
| |
| |
Direct Sellers Have the Edge | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Comparative Financial Analysis: Personal Computer Industry | |
| |
| |
| |
Reading a Financial Statement: Early-Stage Companies and Investment Capacity | |
| |
| |
Stages of Company Development | |
| |
| |
Startup: The Company Defines Itself | |
| |
| |
Emerging Growth: The Battle Is Joined | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Reading a Financial Statement: Later-Stage Companies and the Transition to Maturity | |
| |
| |
Established Growth: Past the Shakeout | |
| |
| |
The Transition to Maturity: Maximum Analytic Risk | |
| |
| |
Mature Companies: The Old--But Good--Economy | |
| |
| |
Declining Companies: Demand Shrinks | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Economic Value Added: An Alternative to Traditional Analysis Techniques | |
| |
| |
The Foundations of EVA | |
| |
| |
The Firm As a Savings Account | |
| |
| |
NOPAT Is the Pool of Profits | |
| |
| |
Gateway: EVA in Practice | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Gateway's Cost of Capital | |
| |
| |
Cost of Equity | |
| |
| |
Weighted-Average Cost of Capital | |
| |
| |
| |
Financial Models | |
| |
| |
| |
Financial Modeling: Base Case Assumptions and Model Design | |
| |
| |
Consistency and Continuity in Financial Models | |
| |
| |
Those Pesky Quarterly Earnings Forecasts | |
| |
| |
The Laws of Economics and Other Disappointments | |
| |
| |
Financial Model Design: Tricks and Traps | |
| |
| |
Starting a Financial Model: Dell Computer | |
| |
| |
A Partial Reality Check | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Dell Computer Corporation Consolidated Statement of Income | |
| |
| |
| |
Financial Modeling: The Income Statement and Balance Sheet | |
| |
| |
The Income Statement: The Equity Analyst's Lodestone | |
| |
| |
The Balance Sheet: Overcoming Circularity | |
| |
| |
Closing the Balance Sheet: Avoiding Circularity | |
| |
| |
Alternative Balance Sheet Closers | |
| |
| |
Other Financial Model Features | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Financial Modeling: The Statement of Cash Flows | |
| |
| |
The Origins of the SOCF | |
| |
| |
The Direct SOCF Format | |
| |
| |
Total Cash Flow Format | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Equity Valuation | |
| |
| |
| |
Valuation: Foundations and Fundamentals | |
| |
| |
Combat Finance | |
| |
| |
Accounting Is Sometimes Annoying, But It Is Not Fatally Flawed | |
| |
| |
Discounted-Cash-Flow Valuation | |
| |
| |
Terminal Values Are a Big Deal | |
| |
| |
Dell Computer | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Combat Finance: Relative Methods and Companion Variable Models | |
| |
| |
The Theory, As Usual | |
| |
| |
The Computer Industry | |
| |
| |
Other Industry Valuation Models | |
| |
| |
Cheap Stocks | |
| |
| |
Companion Variables and Target Prices | |
| |
| |
Times Series Models | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Hybrid Valuation Techniques | |
| |
| |
An Equity Reformation | |
| |
| |
Self-Correcting Valuations | |
| |
| |
The Growth Content of Stock Prices | |
| |
| |
The Complete Specification of Valuation Multiples | |
| |
| |
Valuation Multiples and Company Performance | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
The Quirky Price/Earnings Ratio | |
| |
| |
The Drivers of the P/E Multiple | |
| |
| |
Gordon Growth and the P/E Ratio | |
| |
| |
The P/E-to-Growth Ratio: Another Casualty | |
| |
| |
P/E and the Franchise Factor | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Valuation of Speculative Stocks | |
| |
| |
Reverse Engineering Speculative Stocks | |
| |
| |
Amazon.com | |
| |
| |
The Calculation | |
| |
| |
Dell Computer | |
| |
| |
Relative Valuation Techniques Falter | |
| |
| |
Another Rule of Thumb: Hope Springs Eternal | |
| |
| |
High Growth Stocks: The Siegel Calculator | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Equity Analysis and Business Combinations | |
| |
| |
The Unfortunate Value Story | |
| |
| |
Deals Happen Anyway | |
| |
| |
Earnings Accretion and Value Addition | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
| |
Getting It Down on Paper | |
| |
| |
| |
Financial Writing: Don't Bury the Lead | |
| |
| |
The Structure of an Analytic Report | |
| |
| |
Giving the Reader a Break | |
| |
| |
Style and Its Abuse | |
| |
| |
The Chained-Logic Trap | |
| |
| |
Notes | |
| |
| |
Bibliography | |
| |
| |
Index | |