Preface | p. xiii |
Empower Yourself with Information! | p. 1 |
Measure Your Bungee Cord! | p. 1 |
The Focus of the Book | p. 2 |
The Four-Step DCF Approach to Valuation | p. 3 |
The DCF Stock Valuation Process | p. 4 |
Some Helpful Definitions Relating to Valuation | p. 5 |
Your Mortgage: An Analogy for Valuation | p. 6 |
Stock Valuation--Art, Science, or Hocus-Pocus? | p. 8 |
Stock Valuation Approaches: Where Does DCF Fit? | p. 9 |
Fundamental Analysis | p. 10 |
Technical Analysis | p. 13 |
Modern Portfolio Theory | p. 14 |
Our Valuation Philosophy | p. 14 |
Where Do We Go from Here? | p. 16 |
How to Value a Stock | p. 19 |
Valuation Insights or Stock "Tips" | p. 19 |
What Do We Mean by Returns to Stockholders? | p. 20 |
Calculation of Return to Stockholders | p. 20 |
Investor Expectations Regarding Stock Market Returns | p. 20 |
Investor Expectations Regarding Returns of a Stock | p. 22 |
Is a Stock Fairly Valued? | p. 24 |
Stock Value versus Stock Price | p. 25 |
The DCF Approach: Microsoft--A Simplified Valuation Example | p. 28 |
Forecast Expected Cash Flow | p. 29 |
Estimate the Discount Rate--The WACC | p. 31 |
Calculate Value of the Corporation | p. 34 |
Calculate the Intrinsic Stock Value | p. 35 |
The Next Step | p. 35 |
The Importance of Cash Flow | p. 39 |
The Spirit of Cash Flow Yet to Come | p. 39 |
Corporate Revenue, Expense, and Net Operating Profit Margin | p. 39 |
Coporate Free Cash Flow | p. 41 |
The Investment Rule for Corporate Management | p. 42 |
The Free Cash Flow to the Firm Philosophy | p. 43 |
Free Cash Flow--Share Repurchase Programs versus Dividends | p. 44 |
Free Cash Flow--The Corporation's Investment Decision | p. 44 |
The FCFF Approach--Where Does It Work? | p. 45 |
The Discounted FCFF Valuation Approach | p. 45 |
The Four-Step Process | p. 45 |
The Excess Return Period and Competitive Advantage | p. 47 |
The Three Valuation Categories | p. 49 |
Why DCF and Not EPS? | p. 51 |
Valuation--Growth Versus Value, Large Cap versus Small Cap | p. 52 |
Valuation--The Next Step | p. 55 |
The Five Most Important Cash Flow Measures | p. 55 |
Forecasting Expected Cash Flows | p. 55 |
Revenue Growth Rate and the Excess Return Period | p. 56 |
Microsoft's Revenue Growth Rate | p. 57 |
McDonald's Revenue Growth Rate | p. 60 |
McDonald's Excess Return Period | p. 62 |
Valuation Inputs Relating to Revenue Growth and Excess Return Period | p. 63 |
Net Operating Profit Margin and NOP | p. 64 |
Valuation Input Relating to NOPM | p. 65 |
Income Tax Rate and Adjusted Taxes | p. 66 |
Valuation Input Relating to Tax Rate | p. 67 |
Net Investment | p. 68 |
Valuation Inputs Relating to Net Investment | p. 71 |
Incremental Working Capital | p. 72 |
Valuation Input Relating to Incremental Working Capital | p. 74 |
Free Cash Flow to the Firm--The Next Step | p. 75 |
Valuation Exercise: Estimating Free Cash Flow for McDonald's | p. 75 |
"Don't Count Until You Discount!" | p. 81 |
Estimating the Cost of Capital | p. 81 |
The WACC as a Portfolio Return | p. 82 |
How to Measure the Cost of Capital | p. 83 |
Interest Rates, the Company's WACC, and Stock Values | p. 83 |
Calculating the WACC and Market Capitalization | p. 85 |
Market Value Versus Book Value | p. 85 |
Estimating McDonald's WACC | p. 87 |
Valuation Inputs Relating to Cost of Capital and Market Capitalization | p. 87 |
The Cost of Common Equity and Shares Outstanding | p. 88 |
The Risk-Free Rate and Expected Returns | p. 89 |
The Return Relating to Common Stock in General | p. 89 |
The Return Relating to an Individual Stock | p. 90 |
Expected Return and the Capital Asset Pricing Model | p. 91 |
The Amount of Stock Outstanding--The Problem with Options | p. 91 |
The After-Tax Cost of Debt and Debt Outstanding | p. 93 |
The Spread to Treasuries--A Measure of Default Risk | p. 93 |
The After-Tax Cost of Debt | p. 94 |
The Cost of Preferred Stock and Stock Outstanding | p. 95 |
After the Cost of Capital--The Next Step | p. 97 |
Valuation Exercise: Estimating the WACC for McDonald's | p. 97 |
Where and How to Obtain Information for Valuations | p. 101 |
Show Me the Info! | p. 101 |
The Hard Way | p. 101 |
The Easy Way | p. 102 |
The Internet and the World Wide Web for Investor Information | p. 103 |
Corporate Web Sites | p. 103 |
Web Sites Devoted to Investment Information | p. 105 |
Corporate Valuation--Easy-to-Find Inputs | p. 106 |
Income Statement Information | p. 106 |
Balance Sheet Information | p. 106 |
Cash Flow Statement Information | p. 107 |
Valuation Inputs Requiring Estimation | p. 109 |
Valuation Inputs for Cost of Capital | p. 112 |
Current Stock Price and Shares Outstanding | p. 113 |
30-Year Treasury Bond Yield | p. 114 |
Company Bond Yield Spread to Treasury | p. 115 |
Company Preferred Stock Yield | p. 115 |
The Equity Risk Premium | p. 116 |
Company-Specific Beta | p. 116 |
Value of Debt and Preferred Stock Outstanding | p. 117 |
Custom Valuations--The Next Step | p. 117 |
Valuation Exercise: McDonald's | p. 118 |
Valuations in Action | p. 121 |
Overview | p. 121 |
Valuation of Microsoft | p. 122 |
General Description of Microsoft--The Quintessential Growth Company | p. 122 |
Baseline Valuation of Microsoft--August 27, 1998 | p. 123 |
Microsoft Valuation--Two-Stage Growth | p. 131 |
Valuation of Intel | p. 133 |
General Description of Intel--A "Great" Growth Company | p. 133 |
Baseline Valuation of Intel--August 28, 1998 | p. 134 |
Intel Valuation--What If There Are Lower NOPMs and Lower Growth Rates? | p. 143 |
Valuation of Consolidated Edison | p. 145 |
General Description of ConEd--A "Decent" Utility | p. 145 |
Baseline Valuation of ConEd--August 31, 1998 | p. 148 |
ConEd Valuation--What Growth Rate Is Needed to Justify $47.31 per Share? | p. 156 |
ConEd Valuation--What If There Are Higher Interest Rates and WACCs? | p. 156 |
Valuation of ATandT | p. 158 |
General Description of ATandT--A "Good" Value Company | p. 158 |
Baseline Valuation of ATandT--August 31, 1998 | p. 159 |
ATandT Valuation--What If There Are Increased NOPMs? | p. 166 |
Valuation of McDonald's | p. 166 |
Baseline Valuation of McDonald's--September 1, 1998 | p. 168 |
McDonald's Valuation--What If There Are Increased NOPMs? | p. 170 |
Where Do We Go from Here? | p. 174 |
A Spreadsheet Valuation Approach | p. 175 |
Layout of the Model | p. 176 |
General Input Screen | p. 176 |
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Screen | p. 177 |
General Pro Forma Screen | p. 181 |
Custom Valuation Screens | p. 183 |
How to Find the ValuePro Program | p. 185 |
Web Site Addresses | p. 187 |
Stock Market Efficiency | p. 189 |
Investors' Required Return on Stocks | p. 203 |
Glossary | p. 215 |
List of Acronyms | p. 225 |
Index | p. 227 |
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