2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

ISBN-10: 1603584218
ISBN-13: 9781603584210
Edition: 2012
Authors: Jorgen Randers
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Description: Forty years ago,The Limits to Growthstudy addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth. It predicted that during the first half of the 21st century the ongoing growth in the human ecological  More...

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Book details

List price: $24.95
Copyright year: 2012
Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing
Publication date: 6/13/2012
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 416
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.00" long x 1.23" tall
Weight: 1.166

Forty years ago,The Limits to Growthstudy addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth. It predicted that during the first half of the 21st century the ongoing growth in the human ecological footprint would stop-either through catastrophic "overshoot and collapse"-or through well-managed "peak and decline."So, where are we now? And what does our future look like? In the book2052, Jorgen Randers, one of the co-authors ofLimits to Growth, issues a progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty years. To do this, he asked dozens of experts to weigh in with their best predictions on how our economies, energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food, fisheries, militaries, political divisions, cities, psyches, and more will take shape in the coming decades. He then synthesized those scenarios into a global forecast of life as we will most likely know it in the years ahead.The good news: we will see impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But this change might not come as we expect. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens. Runaway global warming, too, is likely.So, how do we prepare for the years ahead? With heart, fact, and wisdom, Randers guides us along a realistic path into the future and discusses what readers can do to ensure a better life for themselves and their children during the increasing turmoil of the next forty years.

J�rgen Randers was born in 1945 in Norway. He is the professor of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, and practitioner in the field of future studies. Randers received an undergraduate degree at the University of Oslo in 1968, and a PhD at the MIT Sloan School of Management in 1973. From 1981 to 1989 he served as president of the BI Norwegian Business School, and from 1994 to 1999 as deputy director general of the World Wildlife Fund International in Switzerland. In the year 2005-06 he led the Norwegian Commission on Low Emissions, which "presented a report demonstrating how Norway could reduce her greenhouse gas emissions by 2050". Randers is professor of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School. His research interests are on climate issues, scenario planning and system dynamics, especially on the topics of sustainable development, climate change and global warming mitigation. His titles include The Limits to Growth, Elements of the System Dynamics Methods, and 2052 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years.

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