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Map and the Territory Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting

ISBN-10: 1594204810
ISBN-13: 9781594204814
Edition: N/A
Authors: Alan Greenspan
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Description: Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in  More...

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Book details

List price: $36.00
Publisher: Penguin Publishing Group
Publication date: 10/22/2013
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 400
Size: 6.50" wide x 9.75" long x 1.25" tall
Weight: 1.430
Language: English

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we're conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we're steering by out-of-date maps, when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control.The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid using twenty-first-century technologies. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author's own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can't. The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to our competition with China to natural disasters in an age of global warming.No map is the territory, but Greenspan's approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.

Introduction
Animal Spirits
The Crisis Begins, Intensifies, and Abates
The Roots of Crisis
Stock Prices and Equity Stimulus
Finance and Regulation
Schooner Intelligence and then Some
Uncertainty Undermines Investment
Productivity: The Ultimate Measure of Economic Success
Productivity and the Age of Entitlements
Culture
The Onset of Globalization, Income Inequality, and the Rise of the Gini and the Crony
Money and Inflation
Buffers
The Bottom Line
Acknowledgments
Appendices
Notes
Index

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