Risk Analysis in Engineering Techniques, Tools, and Trends

ISBN-10: 1574447947
ISBN-13: 9781574447941
Edition: 2006
List price: $167.95
30 day, 100% satisfaction guarantee

If an item you ordered from TextbookRush does not meet your expectations due to an error on our part, simply fill out a return request and then return it by mail within 30 days of ordering it for a full refund of item cost.

Learn more about our returns policy

Description: Based on the author's 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques  More...

what's this?
Rush Rewards U
Members Receive:
coins
coins
You have reached 400 XP and carrot coins. That is the daily max!
You could win $10,000

Get an entry for every item you buy, rent, or sell.

Study Briefs

Limited time offer: Get the first one free! (?)

All the information you need in one place! Each Study Brief is a summary of one specific subject; facts, figures, and explanations to help you learn faster.

Add to cart
Study Briefs
History of Western Art Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
History of World Philosophies Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
American History Volume 1 Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
History of Western Music Online content $4.95 $1.99

Customers also bought

Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading

Book details

List price: $167.95
Copyright year: 2006
Publisher: CRC Press LLC
Publication date: 1/13/2006
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 424
Size: 7.25" wide x 10.00" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.980
Language: English

Based on the author's 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of risk analysis on the part of the student and provides the necessary mathematical and engineering foundations. The text relies heavily on, but is not limited to, examples from the nuclear industry, because that is where PRA techniques were first developed. Since PRA provides a best-estimate approach, the author pays special attention to explaining uncertainty characterization.The book begins with a description of the basic definitions and principles of risk, safety, and performance and presents the elements of risk analysis and their applications in engineering. After highlighting the methods for performing PRAs, the author describes how to assess and measure performance of the building blocks of PRAs, such as reliability of hardware subsystems, structures, components, human actions, and software. He covers methods of characterizing uncertainties and methods for propagating them through the PRA model to estimate uncertainties of the results. The book explores how to identify and rank important and sensitive contributors to the estimated risk using the PRA and performance assessment models. It also includes a description of risk acceptance criteria and the formal methods for making decisions related to risk management options and strategies. The book concludes with a brief review of the main aspects, issues, and methods of risk communication.Drawing on notes, homework problems, and exams from courses he has taught as well as feedback from his students, Professor Modarres provides a from-the-trenches method for teaching risk assessment for engineers. This is a textbook that is easy to use for students and professors alike.

Introduction and Basic Definitions
Introduction
Importance of Risk Analysis
Complexity and Characteristics of Engineering Systems and their Models
Demand for Risk Analysis
Emergence of Formal Risk Analysis for Managing and Regulating Risks
Categories of Risk
Trends in the Use of Risk Analysis Methods in Engineering
Elements and Types of Risk Analysis
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Qualitative Risk Analysis
Mixed Qualitative-Quantitative Analysis
Risk Assessment
Identification of Hazards
Identification of System Barriers
Identification of Challenges to Barriers
Estimation of Frequency or Probability of a Hazard Exposure
Consequences Evaluation
Risk Management
Risk Communication
The Nature of the Risk
The Nature of the Benefits
Uncertainties in Risk Assessment
Risk Management Options
References
Elements of Risk Assessment
Types of Risk Assessment
Risk, Hazard, Performance, and Engineering Risk Assessment
Risk and Hazard
Engineering Risk Assessment
Performance and Performance Assessment
Elements of a Formal Risk Assessment
Qualitative Risk Assessment
Quantitative Risk Assessment
References
Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Introduction
Steps in Conducting a PRA
Objectives and Methodology Definition
Familiarization and Information Assembly
Identification of Initiating Events
Sequence or Scenario Development
Logic Modeling
Failure Data Collection, Analysis, and Performance Assessment
Quantification and Integration
Uncertainty Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
Risk Ranking and Importance Analysis
Interpretation of Results
Strength of PRA
Scenario and Logic Modeling, Development, and Quantification
Fault Tree Method
Evaluation of Logic Trees
Event Trees Method
Master Logic Diagram
Modeling of Dependent Failures in Risk Assessment
Multiple Greek Letter Model
[alpha]-Factor Model
Binomial Failure Rate Model
Assessment of Parameters of CCF Models
A Simple Example of PRA
References
Performance Assessment: Data and Modeling
Introduction
Active Hardware Performance Assessment
Basic Random Processes Used in PRA
Homogeneous Poisson Process
Renewal Process
Analysis of Less than Perfect Repair: Generalized Renewal Process
Statistical Data Analysis for Hardware Items
Parameter Estimation for the HPP Using Complete Data
Parameter Estimation for NHPP Using Complete Data
Availability as a Measure of Performance for Repairable Hardware Items
Instantaneous (Point) Availability
Limiting Point Availability
Average Availability
Classical Parameter Estimation of Distribution Models for Performance Assessment of Hardware
Estimation of Parameters of Exponential Distribution Model (Based on Complete Data)
Estimation of Parameters of Lognormal Distribution Model (Based on Complete Data)
Estimation of Parameters of Weibull Distribution Model (Based on Complete and Censored Data)
Estimation of Parameters of Binomial Distribution Model
Estimation of Parameters of Exponential, Lognormal, and Weibull Models when Dealing with Incomplete (Censored) Data
Bayesian Parameters Estimation of Distribution Models for Performance Assessment of Hardware
Bayesian Estimation of the Parameter of Exponential Distribution Model
Bayesian Estimation of the Parameter of Binomial Distribution Model
A Comparison of Classical Parameter Estimation and Bayesian Parameter Estimation Methods: Advantages and Disadvantages
Performance of Passive and Some Active Hazard Barriers Through Physics and Engineering of Failure Modeling
Stress-Strength Models
Damage-Endurance Models
Software Performance Assessment
Software Reliability Models
Human Reliability Analysis
Human Reliability Analysis Process
Human Reliability Analysis Models
Human Reliability Data
Expert Opinion in Risk Assessment and Performance Assessment
Geometric Averaging Technique
Bayesian Approach
Statistical Evidence on the Accuracy of Expert Estimates
References
Uncertainty Analysis
Introduction
Types of Uncertainty
Model Uncertainty
Parameter Uncertainty
Measures of Uncertainty
Uncertainty Propagation Methods
Method of Moments
Probabilistic Methods (Monte Carlo Methods)
The Response Surface Method
Comparison of Uncertainty Propagation Methods
Monte Carlo Method
Differential Analysis (Method of Moments)
Response surface methodology
Graphic Representation of Uncertainty
References
Identifying, Ranking, and Predicting Contributors to Risk
Introduction
Importance Ranking in Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Birnbaum
Fussell-Vesely
Risk Reduction Worth (RRW)
Risk Achievement Worth (RAW)
Differential Importance Measure (DIM)
Importance Measures in Success Space
A Comprehensive Example of Importance Measure Application
Importance Measures in Failure and Success Domains
Consideration of Uncertainties in Importance Measures used for Risk-Based Ranking
Ranking Order Uncertainty
Uncertainty Associated with the Importance Measures
Illustrative Example
Relative Ranking Based on Uncertain Importance Measures
Absolute Ranking Based on Uncertain Importance Measures
Uncertainty Importance Measures
Precursor Analysis
Basic Methodology
Categorization and Selection of Precursor Events
Properties of Precursor Estimator for the Occurrence Rate of Hazard Exposure Events and their Interpretation
Applications of Precursor Analysis
Differences between Precursor Analysis and Probabilistic Risk Assessments
References
Representation of Risk Values and Risk Acceptance Criteria
Introduction
Representation of Risk Results
Health and Safety Risk Acceptance Criteria
Individual Risk Acceptance Criteria
Societal Risk Acceptance Criteria (Exposure, Consequence, Precursor)
Economic Risk and Performance Acceptance Criteria
Other Risk Acceptance Criteria in Form of Figures of Merit
Acceptable Risk Levels Based on Changes in Figures of Merit
Using Figures of Merit in Single Event Risk
Instantaneous Absolute Value Limits
Risk Acceptance Based on Importance Measures
Risk Acceptance Based on Value of Human Life
References
Decision Making Techniques Using Risk Information
Introduction
Economic Methods in Risk Analysis
Benefit-Cost Analysis
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
Risk-Effectiveness Analysis
Noneconomic Techniques
Probability of Exceedance Method
Structured Value Analysis
Analytical Hierarchy Process
Decision Tree Analysis
References
Risk Communication
Introduction
Forms of Communication
Some Basic Rules of Risk Communication
Elements of Effective Risk Communication
Characteristics of an Effective Risk Communication
Risk Perception
References
Basic Reliability Mathematics: Review of Probability and Statistics
Introduction
Elements of Probability
Sets and Boolean Algebra
Basic Laws of Probability
Bayes' Theorem
Probability Distributions
Random Variable
Some Basic Discrete Distributions
Some Basic Continuous Distributions
Joint and Marginal Distributions
Basic Characteristics of Random Variables
Estimation and Hypothesis Testing
Point Estimation
Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing
Frequency Tables and Histograms
Goodness-of-Fit Tests
Chi-Square Test
Kolmogorov Test
Regression Analysis
Simple Linear Regression
References
Appendix B
Index

×
Free shipping on orders over $35*

*A minimum purchase of $35 is required. Shipping is provided via FedEx SmartPost® and FedEx Express Saver®. Average delivery time is 1 – 5 business days, but is not guaranteed in that timeframe. Also allow 1 - 2 days for processing. Free shipping is eligible only in the continental United States and excludes Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico. FedEx service marks used by permission."Marketplace" orders are not eligible for free or discounted shipping.

Learn more about the TextbookRush Marketplace.

×