Prediction Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature

ISBN-10: 1559637765

ISBN-13: 9781559637763

Edition: 2nd 2000

List price: $42.50
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Based upon ten case studies, Prediction explores how science-based predictions guide policy making and what this means in terms of global warming, biogenetically modifying organisms and polluting the environment with chemicals.
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Book details

List price: $42.50
Edition: 2nd
Copyright year: 2000
Publisher: Island Press
Publication date: 4/1/2000
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 400
Size: 6.00" wide x 8.75" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.232
Language: English

Roberta Brandes Gratzis an award-winning journalist, urban critic, and author of the acclaimed bookThe Living City. Her articles have appeared in theWall Street Journal,New York Times Magazine,The Nation,Tikkun,Planning Magazine, and theDaily News, among others. She lives in New York City.Roger Pielke, Jr., is a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado. The author ofThe Honest Broker, he lives in Boulder, Colorado.

List of Figures
List of Tables and Boxes
Introduction: Death, Taxes, and Environmental Policy
Prediction as a Problem
Prediction in Science and Policy
Why Predict? Historical Perspectives on Prediction in Earth Science
Uncertainty, Judgment, and Error in Prediction
Disasters Waiting to Happen: Predicting Natural Hazards
Short-Term Weather Prediction: An Orchestra in Need of a Conductor
Flood Prediction: Immersed in the Quagmire of National Flood Mitigation Strategy
The Asteroid/Comet Impact Hazard: Homo Sapiens as Dinosaur?
Predicting Earthquakes: Science, Pseudoscience, and Public Policy Paradox
Foreordained Conclusions: Prediction and Politics
What You Know Can Hurt You: Predicting the Behavior of Nourished Beaches
Is This Number to Your Liking? Water Quality Predictions in Mining Impact Studies
From Tin Roof to Torn Wet Blanket: Predicting and Observing Groundwater Movement at a Proposed Nuclear Waste Site
Cascades of Uncertainty: Prediction and Policy
Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal: Diminishing Reserves, Increasing Supplies
Predictive Modeling of Acid Rain: Obstacles to Generating Useful Information
Prediction and Other Approaches to Climate Change Policy
Prediction in Perspective
Alternatives to Prediction
Prediction in Society
Prediction and Characteristic Times
A Decision Framework for Prediction in Environmental Policy
Decision Making and the Future of Nature: Understanding and Using Predictions
About the Contributors
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