Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterprise Systems

ISBN-10: 1439826145

ISBN-13: 9781439826140

Edition: 2013

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Description: Presenting a series of advanced topics in modern risk analysis, this work highlights the modeling, analysis, and management of risk in todaya (TM)s complex engineering enterprise systems. Extending far beyond the scope common to traditional systems, it provides a detailed investigation of extreme events, including the risks of extreme events in complex queuing systems. Chapters cover elements of risk and decision theory, analytical framework, risk co-relationships, functional dependency network analysis, decision-theoretic algorithms, prioritization systems, and complex queuing systems. Exercises are provided at the end of each chapter.

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Book details

Copyright year: 2013
Publisher: CRC Press LLC
Publication date: 10/8/2012
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 464
Size: 6.50" wide x 9.50" long x 1.25" tall
Weight: 1.738
Language: English

Preface
Acknowledgments
Authors
Engineering Risk Management
Introduction
Boston's Central Artery/Tunnel Project
Objectives and Practices
New Challenges
Questions and Exercises
Perspectives on Theories of Systems and Risk
Introduction
General Systems Theory
Complex Systems, Systems-of-Systems, and Enterprise Systems
Risk and Decision Theory
Engineering Risk Management
Questions and Exercises
Foundations of Risk and Decision Theory
Introduction
Elements of Probability Theory
The Value Function
Risk and Utility Functions
vNM Utility Theory
Utility Functions
Multiattribute Utility-The Power Additive Utility Function
The Power-Additive Utility Function
Applying the Power-Additive Utility Function
Applications to Engineering Risk Management
Value Theory to Measure Risk
Utility Theory to Compare Designs
Questions and Exercises
A Risk Analysis Framework in Engineering Enterprise Systems
Introduction
Perspectives on Engineering Enterprise Systems
A Framework for Measuring Enterprise Capability Risk
A Risk Analysis Algebra
Information Needs for Portfolio Risk Analysis
The "Cutting Edge"
Questions and Exercises
An Index to Measure Risk Corelationships
Introduction
RCR Postulates, Definitions, and Theory
Computing the RCR Index
Applying the RCR Index: A Resource Allocation Example
Summary
Questions and Exercises
Functional Dependency Network Analysis
Introduction
FDNA Fundamentals
Weakest Link Formulations
FDNA (�, �) Weakest Link Rule
Network Operability and Tolerance Analyses
Critical Node Analysis and Degradation Index
Degradation Tolerance Level
Special Topics
Operability Function Regulation
Constituent Nodes
Addressing Cycle Dependencies
Summary
Questions and Exercises
A Decision-Theoretic Algorithm for Ranking Risk Criticality
Introduction
A Prioritization Algorithm
Linear Additive Model
Compromise Models
Criteria Weights
Illustration
Questions and Exercises
A Model for Measuring Risk in Engineering Enterprise Systems
A Unifying Risk Analytic Framework and Process
A Traditional Process with Nontraditional Methods
A Model Formulation for Measuring Risk in Engineering Enterprise Systems
Summary
Questions and Exercises
Random Processes and Queuing Theory
Introduction
Deterministic Process
Mathematical Determinism
Philosophical Determinism
Random Process
Concept of Uncertainity
Uncertainty, Randomness, and Probability
Causality and Uncertainty
Necessary and Sufficient Causes
Causalities and Risk Scenario Identification
Probabilistic Causation
Markov Process
Birth and Death Process
Queuing Theory
Characteristic of Queuing Systems
Poisson Process and Distribution
Exponential Distribution
Basic Queuing Models
Single-Server Model
Probability of an Empty Queuing System
Probability That There are Exactly N Entities Inside the Queuing Systems
Mean Number of Entities in the Queuing System
Mean Number of Waiting Entities
Average Latency Time of Entities
Average Time of an Entity Waiting to Be Served
Applications to Engineering Systems
Summary
Questions and Exercises
Extreme Event Theory
Introduction to Extreme and Rare Events
Extreme and Rare Events and Engineering Systems
Traditional Data Analysis
Extreme Value Analysis
Extreme Event Probability Distributions
Independent Single-Order Statistic
Limit Distributions
Determining Domain of Attraction Using Inverse Function
Determining Domain of Attraction Using Graphical Method
Steps in Visual Analysis of Empirical Data
Estimating Parameters of GEVD
Complex Systems and Extreme and Rare Events
Extreme and Rare Events in a Complex System
Complexity and Causality
Complexity and Correlation
Final Words on Causation
Summary
Questions and Exercises
Prioritization Systems in Highly Networked Environments
Introduction
Priority Systems
PS Notation
Types of Priority Systems
Static Priority Systems
Dynamic Priority Systems
State-Dependent DPS
Time-Dependent DPS
Summary
Questions and Exercises
Questions
Risks of Extreme Events in Complex Queuing Systems
Introduction
Risk of Extreme Latency
Methodology for Measurement of Risk
Conditions for Unbounded Latency
Saturated PS
Conditions for Bounded Latency
Bounded Latency Times in Saturated Static PS
Bounded Latency Times in a Saturated SDPS
Combinations of Gumbel Types
Derived Performance Measures
Tolerance Level for Risk
Degree of Deficit
Relative Risks
Differentation Tolerance Level
Cost Functions
Optimization of PS
Cost Function Minimization
Bounds on Waiting Line
Pessimistic and Optimistic Decisions in Extremes
Summary
Questions and Exercises
Bernoulli Utility and the St. Petersburg Paradox
The St. Petersburg Paradox
Use Expected Utility, Not Expected Value
Questions and Exercises
References
Index
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