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Ecological Modeling A Common-Sense Approach to Theory and Practice

ISBN-10: 140516168X
ISBN-13: 9781405161688
Edition: 2008
List price: $68.95 Buy it from $32.80
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Description: Ecological Modeling:A Commonsense Approach to Theory and Practice explores how simulation modeling and its new ecological applications can offer solutions to complex natural resource management problems. This is a practical guide for students,  More...

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Book details

List price: $68.95
Copyright year: 2008
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
Publication date: 12/26/2007
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 176
Size: 6.82" wide x 9.80" long x 0.33" tall
Weight: 0.682

Ecological Modeling:A Commonsense Approach to Theory and Practice explores how simulation modeling and its new ecological applications can offer solutions to complex natural resource management problems. This is a practical guide for students, teachers, and professional ecologists. Examines four phases of the modeling process: conceptual model formulation, quantitative model specification, model evaluation, and model use Provides useful building blocks for constructing systems simulation models Includes a format for reporting the development and use of simulation models Offers an integrated systems perspective for students, faculty, and professionals Features helpful insights from the author, gained over 30 years of university teaching

Preface
Acknowledgments
Introduction
Common-sense solutions: three exercises
Modeling theory
Modeling practice
Theory, practice, and common sense
Intended use of this book
Common-sense solutions: three exercises
Common-sense solutions
Three problems
Harvesting food for the winter
Estimating the probability of population extinction
Managing the Commons
The systems approach to problem solving
The conceptual model (Phase I)
The quantitative model (Phase II)
Model evaluation (Phase III)
Model application (Phase IV)
The three problems revisited: the systems approach in theory and practice
Modeling theory
Theory I: the conceptual model
State the model objectives (I[subscript a])
Bound the system-of-interest (I[subscript b])
Categorize the components within the system-of-interest (I[subscript c])
State variables
Material transfers
Sources and sinks
Information transfers
Driving variables
Constants
Auxiliary variables
Identify the relationships among the components that are of interest (I[subscript d])
Submodels
Represent the conceptual model (I[subscript e])
Conceptual-model diagrams
Describe the expected patterns of model behavior (I[subscript f])
Theory II: the quantitative model
Select the general quantitative structure for the model (II[subscript a])
Choose the basic time unit for the simulations (II[subscript b])
Identify the functional forms of the model equations (II[subscript c])
Information on which to base the choice of functional forms
Selecting types of equations to represent the chosen functional forms
Estimate the parameters of the model equations (II[subscript d])
Statistical analyses within the context of simulation model parameterization
Quantifying qualitative information
Deterministic- versus stochastic-model parameterization
Execute the baseline simulation (II[subscript e])
Baseline simulations for stochastic models
Theory III: model evaluation
Assess the reasonableness of the model structure and the interpretability of functional relationships within the model (III[subscript a])
Evaluate the correspondence between model behavior and the expected patterns of model behavior (III[subscript b])
Examine the correspondence between model projections and the data from the real system (III[subscript c])
Quantitative versus qualitative model evaluation
Determine the sensitivity of model projections to changes in the values of important parameters (III[subscript d])
Interpreting sensitivity analysis within a model evaluation framework
Theory IV: model application
Develop and execute the experimental design for the simulations (IV[subscript a])
Analyze and interpret the simulation results (IV[subscript b])
Communicate the simulation results (IV[subscript c])
Modeling practice
Some common pitfalls
Phase I pitfalls: the conceptual model
Phase II pitfalls: the quantitative model
Phase III pitfalls: model evaluation
Phase IV pitfalls: model application
The modeling process in practice
Preliminary conceptual model (CM)
How to begin
Adding new components to the model
Describing expected patterns
Describing the plan of attack
Intermediate developmental models (IDM[subscript i])
Evaluate-adjust cycle for each developmental model
Sensitivity analysis of the last developmental model
Final model (FM)
Theory, practice, and common sense
The common-sense problems revisted
Harvesting food for the winter
The preliminary conceptual model (CM)
The last (only) intermediate development model (IDM[subscript last])
The final model (FM)
Estimating the probability of population extinction
The preliminary conceptual model (CM)
The intermediate development models (IDM[subscript i])
The final model (FM)
Managing the Commons
The preliminary conceptual model (CM)
The intermediate development models (IDM[subscript i])
The final model (FM)
Reflections
The systems approach as a complement to other methods of problem solving
Ecological modeling as a problem-solving process
Expectations for ecological models
A final thought
References
Introduction to the ecological modeling literature
Scientific reports for the examples in Chapter 2
Effect of deforestation on rate of food harvest
Effect of hurricane frequency on probability of population extinction
Effect of stocking rate on forage and animal production
Index

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