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| Foreword | |
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| Preface | |
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| Acknowledgments | |
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| About the Author | |
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| Demystifying Forecasting: Myths versus Reality | |
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| Data Collection, Storage, and Processing Reality | |
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| Art-of-Forecasting Myth | |
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| End-Cap Display Dilemma | |
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| Reality of Judgmental Overrides | |
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| Oven Cleaner Connection | |
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| More Is Not Necessarily Better | |
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| Reality of Unconstrained Forecasts, Constrained Forecasts, and Plans | |
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| Northeast Regional Sales Composite Forecast | |
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| Hold-and-Roll Myth | |
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| The Plan that Was Not Good Enough | |
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| Package to Order versus Make to Order | |
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| "Do You Want Fries with That?" | |
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| Summary | |
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| Notes | |
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| What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting? | |
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| Transitioning from Traditional Demand Forecasting | |
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| What's Wrong with The Demand-Generation Picture? | |
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| Fundamental Flaw with Traditional Demand Generation | |
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| Relying Solely on a Supply-Driven Strategy Is Not the Solution | |
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| What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting? | |
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| What Is Demand Sensing and Shaping? | |
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| Changing the Demand Management Process Is Essential | |
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| Communication Is Key | |
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| Measuring Demand Management Success | |
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| Benefits of a Demand-Driven Forecasting Process | |
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| Key Steps to Improve the Demand Management Process | |
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| Why Haven't Companies Embraced the Concept of Demand-Driven? | |
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| Summary | |
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| Notes | |
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| Overview of Forecasting Methods | |
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| Underlying Methodology | |
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| Different Categories of Methods | |
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| How Predictable Is the Future? | |
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| Some Causes of Forecast Error | |
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| Segmenting Your Products to Choose the Appropriate Forecasting Method | |
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| Summary | |
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| Note | |
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| Measuring Forecast Performance | |
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| "We Overachieved Our Forecast, So Let's Party!" | |
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| Purposes for Measuring Forecasting Performance | |
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| Standard Statistical Error Terms | |
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| Specific Measures of Forecast Error | |
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| Out-of-Sample Measurement | |
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| Forecast Value Added | |
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| Summary | |
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| Notes | |
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| Quantitative Forecasting Methods Using Time Series Data | |
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| Understanding the Model-Fitting Process | |
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| Introduction to Quantitative Time Series Methods | |
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| Quantitative Time Series Methods | |
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| Moving Averaging | |
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| Exponential Smoothing | |
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| Single Exponential Smoothing | |
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| Holt's Two-Parameter Method | |
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| Holt's-Winters' Method | |
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| Winters' Additive Seasonality | |
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| Summary | |
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| Notes | |
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| Regression Analysis | |
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| Regression Methods | |
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| Simple Regression | |
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| Correlation Coefficient | |
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| Coefficient of Determination | |
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| Multiple Regression | |
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| Data Visualization Using Scatter Plots and Line Graphs | |
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| Correlation Matrix | |
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| Multicollinearity | |
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| Analysis of Variance | |
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| F-test | |
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| Adjusted R<sup>2</sup> | |
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| Parameter Coefficients | |
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| t-test | |
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| P-values | |
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| Variance Inflation Factor | |
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| Durbin-Watson Statistic | |
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| Intervention Variables (or Dummy Variables) | |
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| Regression Model Results | |
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| Key Activities in Building a Multiple Regression Model | |
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| Cautions about Regression Models | |
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| Summary | |
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| Notes | |
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| ARIMA Models | |
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| Identifying the Tentative Model | |
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| Estimating and Diagnosing the Model Parameter Coefficients | |
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| Creating a Forecast | |
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| Seasonal ARIMA Models | |
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| Box-Jenkins Overview | |
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| Extending ARIMA Models to Include Explanatory Variables | |
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| Transfer Functions | |
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| Numerators and Denominators | |
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| Rational Transfer Functions | |
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| ARIMA Model Results | |
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| Summary | |
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| Notes | |
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| Weighted Combined Forecasting Methods | |
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| What Is Weighted Combined Forecasting? | |
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| Developing a Variance Weighted Combined Forecast | |
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| Guidelines for the Use of Weighted Combined Forecasts | |
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| Summary | |
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| Notes | |
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| Sensing, Shaping, and Linking Demand to Supply: A Case Study Using MTCA | |
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| Linking Demand to Supply Using Multi-Tiered Causal Analysis | |
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| Case Study: The Carbonated Soft Drink Story | |
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| Summary | |
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| Consumer Packaged Goods Terminology | |
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| Adstock Transformations for Advertising GRP/TRPs | |
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| Notes | |
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| New Product Forecasting: Using Structured Judgment | |
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| Differences between Evolutionary and Revolutionary New Products | |
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| General Feeling about New Product Forecasting | |
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| New Product Forecasting Overview | |
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| What Is a Candidate Product? | |
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| New Product Forecasting Process | |
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| Structured Judgment Analysis | |
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| Structured Process Steps | |
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| Statistical Filter Step | |
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| Model Step | |
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| Forecast Step | |
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| Summary | |
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| Notes | |
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| Strategic Value Assessment: Assessing the Readiness of Your Demand Forecasting Process | |
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| Strategic Value Assessment Framework | |
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| Strategic Value Assessment Process | |
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| SVA Case Study: XYZ Company | |
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| Summary | |
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| Suggested Reading | |
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| Notes | |
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| Index | |