Demand-Driven Forecasting A Structured Approach to Forecasting

ISBN-10: 1118669398

ISBN-13: 9781118669396

Edition: 2nd 2013

Authors: Charles W. Chase
List price: $90.00
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Description: This is a practitioner based book that provides readers with real proven processes, methodologies, and performance metrics that can be applied immediately with significant improvement in forecast accuracy. It will be filled with real life examples and case studies to illustrate both best-in-class approaches as well as initial start-up approaches.   This new edition provides case studies on why Excel is not a forecasting tool and package to order versus make to order. In addition, alternative methods for creating weights using new SAS Weighted Combined methods. The tentative contents is:  (1) Demystifying Forecasting: Myths versus Reality; (2) What Is Demand Driven Forecasting?; (3) Overview of Forecasting Methods; (4) Measuring Forecast Performance; (5) Quantitative Forecasting Methods Using Time Series Data; (6) Quantitative Forecasting Methods Using Causal Data; (7) Weighted Combined Forecasting Methods; (8) Sensing, Shaping, and Linking Demand to Supply: A Case Study Using MTCA; and (9) Strategic Value Assessment: Assessing the Readiness of Your Demand Forecasting Process.

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Book details

List price: $90.00
Edition: 2nd
Copyright year: 2013
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Canada, Limited
Publication date: 8/19/2013
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 384
Size: 6.50" wide x 9.50" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.562
Language: English

About the Author
Demystifying Forecasting: Myths versus Reality
Data Collection, Storage, and Processing Reality
Art-of-Forecasting Myth
End-Cap Display Dilemma
Reality of Judgmental Overrides
Oven Cleaner Connection
More Is Not Necessarily Better
Reality of Unconstrained Forecasts, Constrained Forecasts, and Plans
Northeast Regional Sales Composite Forecast
Hold-and-Roll Myth
The Plan that Was Not Good Enough
Package to Order versus Make to Order
"Do You Want Fries with That?"
What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting?
Transitioning from Traditional Demand Forecasting
What's Wrong with The Demand-Generation Picture?
Fundamental Flaw with Traditional Demand Generation
Relying Solely on a Supply-Driven Strategy Is Not the Solution
What Is Demand-Driven Forecasting?
What Is Demand Sensing and Shaping?
Changing the Demand Management Process Is Essential
Communication Is Key
Measuring Demand Management Success
Benefits of a Demand-Driven Forecasting Process
Key Steps to Improve the Demand Management Process
Why Haven't Companies Embraced the Concept of Demand-Driven?
Overview of Forecasting Methods
Underlying Methodology
Different Categories of Methods
How Predictable Is the Future?
Some Causes of Forecast Error
Segmenting Your Products to Choose the Appropriate Forecasting Method
Measuring Forecast Performance
"We Overachieved Our Forecast, So Let's Party!"
Purposes for Measuring Forecasting Performance
Standard Statistical Error Terms
Specific Measures of Forecast Error
Out-of-Sample Measurement
Forecast Value Added
Quantitative Forecasting Methods Using Time Series Data
Understanding the Model-Fitting Process
Introduction to Quantitative Time Series Methods
Quantitative Time Series Methods
Moving Averaging
Exponential Smoothing
Single Exponential Smoothing
Holt's Two-Parameter Method
Holt's-Winters' Method
Winters' Additive Seasonality
Regression Analysis
Regression Methods
Simple Regression
Correlation Coefficient
Coefficient of Determination
Multiple Regression
Data Visualization Using Scatter Plots and Line Graphs
Correlation Matrix
Analysis of Variance
Adjusted R<sup>2</sup>
Parameter Coefficients
Variance Inflation Factor
Durbin-Watson Statistic
Intervention Variables (or Dummy Variables)
Regression Model Results
Key Activities in Building a Multiple Regression Model
Cautions about Regression Models
ARIMA Models
Identifying the Tentative Model
Estimating and Diagnosing the Model Parameter Coefficients
Creating a Forecast
Seasonal ARIMA Models
Box-Jenkins Overview
Extending ARIMA Models to Include Explanatory Variables
Transfer Functions
Numerators and Denominators
Rational Transfer Functions
ARIMA Model Results
Weighted Combined Forecasting Methods
What Is Weighted Combined Forecasting?
Developing a Variance Weighted Combined Forecast
Guidelines for the Use of Weighted Combined Forecasts
Sensing, Shaping, and Linking Demand to Supply: A Case Study Using MTCA
Linking Demand to Supply Using Multi-Tiered Causal Analysis
Case Study: The Carbonated Soft Drink Story
Consumer Packaged Goods Terminology
Adstock Transformations for Advertising GRP/TRPs
New Product Forecasting: Using Structured Judgment
Differences between Evolutionary and Revolutionary New Products
General Feeling about New Product Forecasting
New Product Forecasting Overview
What Is a Candidate Product?
New Product Forecasting Process
Structured Judgment Analysis
Structured Process Steps
Statistical Filter Step
Model Step
Forecast Step
Strategic Value Assessment: Assessing the Readiness of Your Demand Forecasting Process
Strategic Value Assessment Framework
Strategic Value Assessment Process
SVA Case Study: XYZ Company
Suggested Reading
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