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| Acknowledgments | |
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| Introduction | |
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| The Expanding Role of Technical Analysis | |
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| Convergence of Trading Styles in Stocks and Futures | |
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| A Line in the Sand Between Fundamentals and Technical Analysis | |
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| Professional and Amateur | |
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| Random Walk | |
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| Deciding on a Trading Style | |
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| Measuring Noise | |
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| Maturing Markets and Globalization | |
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| Background Material | |
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| Research Guidelines | |
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| Objectives of This Book | |
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| Profile of a Trading System | |
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| A Word About the Notation Used in This Book | |
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| And finally… | |
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| Basic Concepts and Calculations | |
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| About Data And Averaging | |
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| On Average | |
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| Price Distribution | |
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| Moments Of The Distribution: Variance, Skewness, And Kurtosis | |
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| Standardizing Risk And Return | |
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| The Index | |
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| Standard Measurements Of Performance | |
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| Probability | |
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| Supply and Demand | |
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| Charting | |
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| Finding Consistent Patterns | |
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| What Causes the Major Price Moves and Trends? | |
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| The Bar Chart and Its Interpretation by Charles Dow | |
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| Chart FormationsTrendlines | |
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| One-Day Patterns | |
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| Continuation Patterns | |
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| Basic Concepts in Chart Trading | |
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| Accumulation and Distribution—Bottoms and Tops | |
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| Episodic Patterns | |
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| Price Objectives for Bar Charting | |
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| Implied Strategies in Candlestick Charts | |
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| Practical Use of the Bar Chart | |
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| Evolution in Price Patterns | |
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| Charting Systems and Techniques | |
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| Dunnigan and the Thrust Method | |
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| Nofri’s Congestion-Phase System | |
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| Outside Days with an Outside Close | |
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| Inside Days | |
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| Pivot Points | |
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| Action and Reaction | |
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| Channel Breakout | |
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| Moving Channels | |
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| Commodity Channel Index | |
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| Wyckoff’s Combined Techniques | |
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| Complex Patterns | |
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| A Study of Charting Patterns | |
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| Bulkowski’s Chart Pattern Rankings | |
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| Event-Driven Trends | |
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| Swing Trading | |
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| Constructing a Swing Chart Using a Swing Filter | |
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| Point-And-Figure Charting | |
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| The N -Day Breakout | |
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| Regression Analysis | |
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| Components of a Time Series | |
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| Characteristics of the Price Data | |
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| Linear Regression | |
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| Linear Correlation | |
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| Nonlinear Approximations for Two Variables | |
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| Transforming Nonlinear to Linear | |
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| Evaluation of Two-Variable Techniques | |
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| Multivariate Approximations | |
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| ARIMA | |
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| Basic Trading Signals Using a Linear Regression Model | |
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| Measuring Market Strength | |
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| Time-Based Trend Calculations | |
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| Forecasting and Following | |
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| Price Change Over Time | |
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| The Moving Average | |
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| Geometric Moving Average | |
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| Accumulative Average | |
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| Reset Accumulative Average | |
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| Drop-off Effect | |
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| Exponential Smoothing | |
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| Plotting Lags and Leads | |
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| Trend Systems | |
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| Why Trend Systems Work | |
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| Basic Buy and Sell Signals | |
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| Bands and Channels | |
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| Applications of a Single Trend | |
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| Comparison of Major Trend Systems | |
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| Techniques Using Two Trendlines | |
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| Multiple Trends and Common Sense | |
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| Comprehensive Studies | |
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| Selecting the Right Trend Method and Speed | |
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| Moving Average Sequences: Signal Progression | |
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| Early Exits from a Trend | |
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| Moving Average Projected Crossovers | |
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| Momentum and Oscillators | |
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| Momentum | |
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| Divergence Index | |
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| Oscillators | |
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| Double-Smoothed Momentum | |
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| Velocity and Acceleration | |
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| Hybrid Momentum Techniques | |
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| Momentum Divergence | |
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| Some Final Comments on Momentum | |
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| Seasonality and Calendar Patterns | |
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| A Consistent Factor | |
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| The Seasonal Pattern | |
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| Popular Methods for Calculating Seasonality | |
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| Seasonal Filters | |
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| Seasonality and the Stock Market | |
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| Common Sense and Seasonality | |
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| Cycle Analysis | |
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| Cycle Basics | |
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| Uncovering the Cycle | |
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| Maximum Entropy | |
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| Cycle Channel Index | |
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| Short Cycle Indicator | |
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| Phasing | |
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| Volume, Open Interest, and Breadth | |
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| A Special Case for Futures Volume | |
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| Variations from the Normal Patterns | |
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| Standard Interpretation | |
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| Volume Indicators | |
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| Breadth Indicators | |
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| Interpreting Volume and Breadth Systematically | |
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| Breadth as a Counter-Trend Indicator | |
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| An Integrated Probability Model | |
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| Intraday Volume Patterns | |
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| Filtering Low Volume | |
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| Market Facilitation Index | |
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| Spreads and Arbitrage | |
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| Dynamics of Futures Intramarket Spreads | |
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| Carrying Charges | |
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| Spreads in Stocks | |
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| Spread and Arbitrage Relationships | |
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| Risk Reduction in Spreads | |
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| Arbitrage | |
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| The Carry Trade | |
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| Changing Spread Relationships | |
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| Intermarket Spreads | |
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| Behavioral Techniques | |
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| Measuring the News | |
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| Event Trading | |
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| Commitment of Traders Report | |
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| Opinion and Contrary Opinion | |
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| Fibonacci and Human Behavior | |
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| Elliott’s Wave Principle | |
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| Price Target Constructions Using The Fibonacci Ratio | |
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| Fischer’s Golden Section Compass System | |
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| W. D. Gann—Time And Space | |
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| Financial Astrology | |
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| Pattern Recognition | |
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| Projecting Daily Highs And Lows | |
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| Time Of Day | |
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| Opening Gaps | |
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| Weekday, Weekend, And Reversal Patterns | |
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| Computer-Based Pattern Recognition | |
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| Artificial Intelligence Methods | |
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| Day Trading | |
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| Impact Of Transaction Costs | |
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| Key Elements Of Day Trading | |
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| Trading Using Price Patterns | |
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| Intraday Breakout Systems | |
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| Intraday Volume Patterns | |
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| Intraday Price Shocks | |
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| Adaptive Techniques | |
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| Adaptive Trend Calculations | |
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| Adaptive Variations | |
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| Other Adaptive Momentum Calculations | |
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| Adaptive Intraday Breakout System | |
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| An Adaptive Process | |
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| Considering Adaptive Methods | |
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| Price Distribution Systems | |
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| Measuring Distribution | |
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| Use Of Price Distributions And Patterns To Anticipate Moves | |
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| Distribution Of Prices | |
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| Steidlmayer’s Market Profile | |
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| Using Daily Distributions to Identify Support and Resistance | |
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| Multiple Time Frames | |
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| Tuning Two Time Frames To Work Together | |
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| Elder’s Triple-Screen Trading System | |
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| Robert Krausz’s Multiple Time Frames | |
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| Martin Pring’s | |
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| Kst System | |
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| Advanced Techniques | |
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| Measuring Volatility | |
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| Using Volatility For Trading | |
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| Trade Selection Using Volatility | |
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| Liquidity | |
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| Trends And Price Noise | |
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| Trends And Interest Rate Carry | |
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| Expert Systems | |
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| Fuzzy Logic | |
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| Fractals, Chaos, And Entropy | |
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| Neural Networks | |
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| Genetic Algorithms | |
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| Replication Of Hedge Funds | |
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| System Testing | |
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| Expectations | |
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| Identifying The Parameters | |
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| Selecting The Test Data | |
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| Testing Integrity | |
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| Searching For The Best Result | |
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| Visualizing And Interpreting Test Results | |
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| Large-Scale Testing | |
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| Refining The Strategy Rules | |
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| Arriving At Valid Test Results | |
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| Comparing The Results Of Two Systems | |
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| Profiting From The Worst Results | |
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| Retesting For Changing Parameters | |
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| Testing Across A Wide Range Of Markets | |
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| Price Shocks | |
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| Anatomy Of An Optimization | |
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| Summarizing Robustness | |
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| Practical Considerations | |
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| Use And Abuse Of The Computer | |
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| Extreme Events | |
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| Gambling Techniques—The Theory Of Runs | |
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| Selective Trading | |
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| System Trade-Offs | |
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| Trading Limits And Disconnected Markets | |
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| Silver And Nasdaq—Too Good To Be True | |
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| Similarity Of Systematic Trading Signals | |
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| Risk Control | |
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| Mistaking Luck For Skill | |
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| Risk Aversion | |
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| Liquidity | |
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| Measuring Return And Risk | |
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| Leverage | |
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| Leverage Based On Exposure | |
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| Individual Trade Risk | |
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| Position Sizing | |
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| Kaufman On Stops And Profit-Taking | |
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| Ranking Of Markets For Selection | |
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| Probability Of Success And Ruin | |
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| Entering A Position | |
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| Compounding A Position | |
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| Equity Trends | |
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| Investing And Reinvesting: | |
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| Optimal F | |
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| Comparing Expected And Actual Results | |
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| Diversification and Portfolio Allocation | |
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| Diversification | |
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| Changing Correlations | |
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| Types Of Portfolio Models | |
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| Classic Portfolio Allocation Calculations | |
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| Finding Optimal Portfolio Allocation Using Excel’s Solver | |
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| Kaufman’s Genetic Algorithm Solution To Portfolio Allocation (GASP) | |
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| Volatility Stabilization | |
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| Statistical Tables | |
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| Matrix Solution to Linear Equations and Markov Chains | |
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| Trigonometric Regression for Finding Cycles | |
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| Construction of a Pentagon | |
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| Bibliography | |
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| About the Companion Website | |
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| Index | |