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Eclipse Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance

ISBN-10: 0881326062
ISBN-13: 9780881326062
Edition: 2011
List price: $21.95 Buy it from $6.75
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Book details

List price: $21.95
Copyright year: 2011
Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Publication date: 9/15/2011
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 236
Size: 6.10" wide x 9.02" long x 0.52" tall
Weight: 0.990
Language: English

Preface
Acknowledgments
Introduction
A Brief History of Economic Dominance
Systemic Manifestations of US Economic Dominance
Defining Dominance and Power
Quantification and Validation of Economic Dominance
Identifying the Potential Attributes of Economic Dominance
Occam Razorization: Narrowing the List
Measuring the Three Determinants
Validating Economic Dominance
Weighting and Constructing the Index of Economic Dominance
Results: Economic Dominance in the Past
Quantifying Currency Dominance
Definition
Benefits and Costs to the Country Issuing the Reserve Currency
Short History
What Determines Reserve Currency Status?
A Regression Analysis of Reserve Currency Status
Forces Driving Dominance: Convergence and Gravity
Convergence of the Previously Poor
Convergence of the Populous, Previously Poor
Projecting Numbers: Background Analytics
Results
Caveat
Back to History: Economics Catches Up with Demographics
Conclusion
Projecting GDP Growth Based on Purchasing Power Parity and Market Exchange Rates
Trade Projections Based on the Gravity Model
Projecting Economic and Currency Dominance
Economic Dominance in the Future
The Future of the Dollar and the Renminbi
The Renminbi When the Chips Are Down
Conclusion
Robustness of the Index of Economic Dominance
A Historical Perspective on China's Distinctive Dominance
Precocious or Premature: Can a Not-the-Puchest China Be Dominant?
China's Trade and Openness Outcomes in Historical Power Perspective
Chinese Mercantilism in Historical Perspective
Guarding Against Rash Prophesying
China's Growth: Repeating Mistakes?
Looking Back
Conclusion
Economic Cooperation with a Rising China
How Many Country Groupings Are There in 2011? Historical Parallels
Prospects for Cooperation Leading Up to Chinese Hegemony
China is the New Raison d'�tre for Reviving Multilateralism
Limits to the Efficacy of Trade Reciprocity with a Dominant China
Alternative Approaches: Promiscuous and Hostile Bilateralism
Asian-Centered Regionalism as a Medium
Impediments ro Revived Multilateralism
A "China Round" for Tethering China
Conclusion
Postscript America Resurgent or America Vulnerable?
References
Index
Tables
Roles of an international currency
Determinants of reserves, 1899-2009
Convergence and growth rates over time, 1870-2008
Growth projections in a convergence scenario, 2010-30
Economic weight in 2010 and 2030 under the convergence scenario
Relative rankings of countries under the convergence scenario with GDP measured in purchasing power parity dollars
Relative rankings of countries under the convergence scenario with GDP measured in dollars
"Share of world trade under the convergence scenario, selected countries, 2010 and 2030
Exports between countries as a share of total world exports, 2008 and 2030
Demographic and economic weight of the populous poor, 1500-2030
UK, US, Chinese, and European shares of world GDP measured in purchasing power parity dollars, 1870-2030
UK, US, Chinese, and European shares of world trade, 1870-2030
UK, US, Chinese, and European shares of world net capital exports, 1870-2030
UK, US, Chinese, and European GDP per capita, 1870,1950, and 2030
Trade patterns of economically dominant powers in history
Comparing mercantilist outcomes and instruments of economic powers in history
Twenty-year growth rate of selected economies after reaching 25 percent of US GDP per capita
Long-run growth rates of economies before and after reaching 25 percent of US GDP per capita
Who is in charge? 1870-2030

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