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| Preface | |
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| Acknowledgments | |
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| Introduction | |
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| A Brief History of Economic Dominance | |
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| Systemic Manifestations of US Economic Dominance | |
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| Defining Dominance and Power | |
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| Quantification and Validation of Economic Dominance | |
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| Identifying the Potential Attributes of Economic Dominance | |
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| Occam Razorization: Narrowing the List | |
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| Measuring the Three Determinants | |
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| Validating Economic Dominance | |
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| Weighting and Constructing the Index of Economic Dominance | |
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| Results: Economic Dominance in the Past | |
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| Quantifying Currency Dominance | |
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| Definition | |
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| Benefits and Costs to the Country Issuing the Reserve Currency | |
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| Short History | |
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| What Determines Reserve Currency Status? | |
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| A Regression Analysis of Reserve Currency Status | |
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| Forces Driving Dominance: Convergence and Gravity | |
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| Convergence of the Previously Poor | |
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| Convergence of the Populous, Previously Poor | |
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| Projecting Numbers: Background Analytics | |
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| Results | |
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| Caveat | |
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| Back to History: Economics Catches Up with Demographics | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Projecting GDP Growth Based on Purchasing Power Parity and Market Exchange Rates | |
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| Trade Projections Based on the Gravity Model | |
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| Projecting Economic and Currency Dominance | |
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| Economic Dominance in the Future | |
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| The Future of the Dollar and the Renminbi | |
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| The Renminbi When the Chips Are Down | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Robustness of the Index of Economic Dominance | |
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| A Historical Perspective on China's Distinctive Dominance | |
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| Precocious or Premature: Can a Not-the-Puchest China Be Dominant? | |
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| China's Trade and Openness Outcomes in Historical Power Perspective | |
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| Chinese Mercantilism in Historical Perspective | |
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| Guarding Against Rash Prophesying | |
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| China's Growth: Repeating Mistakes? | |
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| Looking Back | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Economic Cooperation with a Rising China | |
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| How Many Country Groupings Are There in 2011? Historical Parallels | |
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| Prospects for Cooperation Leading Up to Chinese Hegemony | |
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| China is the New Raison d'�tre for Reviving Multilateralism | |
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| Limits to the Efficacy of Trade Reciprocity with a Dominant China | |
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| Alternative Approaches: Promiscuous and Hostile Bilateralism | |
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| Asian-Centered Regionalism as a Medium | |
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| Impediments ro Revived Multilateralism | |
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| A "China Round" for Tethering China | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Postscript America Resurgent or America Vulnerable? | |
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| References | |
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| Index | |
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| Tables | |
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| Roles of an international currency | |
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| Determinants of reserves, 1899-2009 | |
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| Convergence and growth rates over time, 1870-2008 | |
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| Growth projections in a convergence scenario, 2010-30 | |
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| Economic weight in 2010 and 2030 under the convergence scenario | |
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| Relative rankings of countries under the convergence scenario with GDP measured in purchasing power parity dollars | |
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| Relative rankings of countries under the convergence scenario with GDP measured in dollars | |
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| "Share of world trade under the convergence scenario, selected countries, 2010 and 2030 | |
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| Exports between countries as a share of total world exports, 2008 and 2030 | |
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| Demographic and economic weight of the populous poor, 1500-2030 | |
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| UK, US, Chinese, and European shares of world GDP measured in purchasing power parity dollars, 1870-2030 | |
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| UK, US, Chinese, and European shares of world trade, 1870-2030 | |
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| UK, US, Chinese, and European shares of world net capital exports, 1870-2030 | |
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| UK, US, Chinese, and European GDP per capita, 1870,1950, and 2030 | |
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| Trade patterns of economically dominant powers in history | |
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| Comparing mercantilist outcomes and instruments of economic powers in history | |
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| Twenty-year growth rate of selected economies after reaching 25 percent of US GDP per capita | |
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| Long-run growth rates of economies before and after reaching 25 percent of US GDP per capita | |
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| Who is in charge? 1870-2030 | |