Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition

ISBN-10: 0804760497

ISBN-13: 9780804760492

Edition: 2nd 2011

Authors: Ray Fair

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Book details

List price: $29.95
Edition: 2nd
Copyright year: 2011
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Publication date: 12/14/2011
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 232
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.25" long x 0.50" tall
Weight: 0.968
Language: English

Ray C. Fair is Professor of Economics, Yale University.

Preface
Introduction: What This Book Is About
It's the Economy, Stupid
A Theory of Voting Behavior
The Data
On to the Tools
The Tools in Seven Easy Lessons
(Monday) Lesson 1: Begin with a Theory
(Tuesday) Lesson 2: Collect Data
(Wednesday) Lesson 3: Fit the Data
(Thursday) Lesson 4: Test
(Friday) Lesson 5: Think About Pitfalls
(Saturday) Lesson 6: Examine the Results
(Sunday) Lesson 7: Predict
Adding More Variables
Testing for Other Variables
Conclusion
Presidential Elections
A Theory of Voting Behavior
The Data
Fit and Test and Examine
Possible Pitfalls
What About the Electoral College?
Do Campaigns Matter?
Manipulating the Economy to Increase Votes
Does Congress Matter?
Do Voters Really Know the Growth Rate and Inflation Numbers?
Real Time Predictions of the Eight Elections
Between 1980 and 2008
Predictions of the 2012 Election
Conclusion
Congressional Elections
A Theory of Voting Behavior
The Data
Fit and Test and Examine
Possible Pitfalls
Real Time Predictions of the Elections of 2008 and 2010
Real Time Predictions for 2012
Conclusion
Extramarital Affairs
A Theory of Extramarital Affairs
The Data
Fit and Test
Possible Pitfalls
Examine the Results and Predict
Conclusion
Wine Quality
Theory and Data
Fit the Data
Possible Pitfalls
Predict
Can One Make Money?
College Grades and Class Attendance
Theory and Data
Fit and Test and Examine the Results
Possible Pitfalls
Predict
Marathon Times
A Theory of the Decline Rate
The Data
Fit and Examine and Possible Pitfalls
Use the Results
Other Events
Conclusion
Aging and Baseball
A Theory of Aging Effects in Baseball
The Data
Fit the Data
The Results
Possible Pitfalls
Ageless Wonders or Steroids?
Are Older Players Overpaid?
Conclusion
Predicting College Football Games
Background and Theory
The Data
The Results
Possible Pitfalls
Use the Best Combination
Betting Markets
Interest Rates
A Theory of Fed Behavior
The Data
Fit and Test
Possible Pitfalls
Examine the Results
Predict Future Fed Behavior
Inflation
A Theory of Price Setting Behavior
The Data
Fit and Test
Possible Pitfalls
Examine the Results and Predict
Inflation and the Fed
More Things
Chapter Notes
Glossary
Poetry Credits
Index
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