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| Preface | |
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| Introduction: What This Book Is About | |
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| It's the Economy, Stupid | |
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| A Theory of Voting Behavior | |
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| The Data | |
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| On to the Tools | |
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| The Tools in Seven Easy Lessons | |
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| (Monday) Lesson 1: Begin with a Theory | |
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| (Tuesday) Lesson 2: Collect Data | |
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| (Wednesday) Lesson 3: Fit the Data | |
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| (Thursday) Lesson 4: Test | |
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| (Friday) Lesson 5: Think About Pitfalls | |
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| (Saturday) Lesson 6: Examine the Results | |
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| (Sunday) Lesson 7: Predict | |
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| Adding More Variables | |
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| Testing for Other Variables | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Presidential Elections | |
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| A Theory of Voting Behavior | |
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| The Data | |
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| Fit and Test and Examine | |
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| Possible Pitfalls | |
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| What About the Electoral College? | |
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| Do Campaigns Matter? | |
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| Manipulating the Economy to Increase Votes | |
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| Does Congress Matter? | |
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| Do Voters Really Know the Growth Rate and Inflation Numbers? | |
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| Real Time Predictions of the Eight Elections | |
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| Between 1980 and 2008 | |
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| Predictions of the 2012 Election | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Congressional Elections | |
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| A Theory of Voting Behavior | |
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| The Data | |
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| Fit and Test and Examine | |
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| Possible Pitfalls | |
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| Real Time Predictions of the Elections of 2008 and 2010 | |
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| Real Time Predictions for 2012 | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Extramarital Affairs | |
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| A Theory of Extramarital Affairs | |
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| The Data | |
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| Fit and Test | |
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| Possible Pitfalls | |
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| Examine the Results and Predict | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Wine Quality | |
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| Theory and Data | |
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| Fit the Data | |
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| Possible Pitfalls | |
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| Predict | |
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| Can One Make Money? | |
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| College Grades and Class Attendance | |
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| Theory and Data | |
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| Fit and Test and Examine the Results | |
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| Possible Pitfalls | |
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| Predict | |
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| Marathon Times | |
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| A Theory of the Decline Rate | |
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| The Data | |
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| Fit and Examine and Possible Pitfalls | |
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| Use the Results | |
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| Other Events | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Aging and Baseball | |
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| A Theory of Aging Effects in Baseball | |
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| The Data | |
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| Fit the Data | |
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| The Results | |
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| Possible Pitfalls | |
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| Ageless Wonders or Steroids? | |
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| Are Older Players Overpaid? | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Predicting College Football Games | |
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| Background and Theory | |
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| The Data | |
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| The Results | |
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| Possible Pitfalls | |
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| Use the Best Combination | |
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| Betting Markets | |
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| Interest Rates | |
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| A Theory of Fed Behavior | |
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| The Data | |
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| Fit and Test | |
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| Possible Pitfalls | |
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| Examine the Results | |
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| Predict Future Fed Behavior | |
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| Inflation | |
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| A Theory of Price Setting Behavior | |
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| The Data | |
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| Fit and Test | |
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| Possible Pitfalls | |
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| Examine the Results and Predict | |
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| Inflation and the Fed | |
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| More Things | |
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| Chapter Notes | |
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| Glossary | |
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| Poetry Credits | |
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| Index | |