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| Foreword | |
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| Preface to the Second Edition | |
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| Acknowledgments | |
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| A Note About the Book's Format | |
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| The Processes of Clinical Reasoning | |
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| Overview | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Diagnosis is an Inferential Process | |
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| Problem-Solving Strategies | |
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| Diagnosis Based on Hypothesis Generation and Testing | |
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| Alternate Concepts of Diagnostic Strategies | |
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| Therapeutic Principles | |
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| Linking Diagnosis and Treatment | |
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| Diagnostic Hypothesis Generation | |
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| Hypotheses and Cues | |
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| The Cognitive Basis of Hypothesis Generation | |
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| Hypotheses as a Context | |
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| Expertise and Error | |
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| Refinement of Diagnostic Hypotheses | |
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| Where Refinement Begins and Ends | |
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| Context and Diagnostic Classification | |
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| Hypothesis Evolution | |
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| Sequence of Data Collection | |
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| Reducing Diagnostic Uncertainty | |
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| The Differential Diagnosis | |
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| Relation to Formal Probabilistic Approach | |
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| Use and Interpretation of Diagnostic Tests | |
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| The Function of Tests | |
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| Quantifying Testing Decisions | |
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| Sensitivity and Specificity | |
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| Bayes' Rule | |
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| Testing Principles | |
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| Bayesian Revision for Multiple Results | |
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| Bayesian Revision for Multiple Diseases With Multiple Attributes | |
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| Pragmatic Considerations in the Probabilistic Approach | |
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| Interpreting Results | |
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| When to Test | |
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| The Threshold Concept | |
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| The Therapeutic Threshold | |
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| Testing Thresholds | |
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| Causal Reasoning | |
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| Definition | |
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| Using a Causal Model | |
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| Where in the Diagnostic Process Does Causal Reasoning Fit? | |
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| Explaining Relations Between Variables | |
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| Diagnostic Verification | |
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| Definition | |
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| Criteria of Validity | |
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| Premature Closure | |
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| The Penultimate Result: A Working Diagnosis | |
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| Therapeutic Decision Making | |
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| Principles | |
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| Treatment Under Conditions of Uncertainty | |
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| When the Value of Therapeutic Choices is Close | |
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| Incommensurate Options | |
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| Quantitative Therapeutic Decision Making | |
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| Examining Evidence | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Evidence-Based Medicine | |
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| Asking Questions | |
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| Searching for Evidence | |
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| Summarizing and Appraising Evidence | |
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| Applying the Evidence | |
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| Practice Guidelines | |
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| Cognitive Errors | |
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| Scope | |
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| Classification | |
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| Some Errors may have a Psychological Origin | |
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| The Nature of Cognitive Errors | |
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| Cognitive Biases in the Laboratory | |
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| Consequences of Cognitive Biases | |
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| Strategies for Avoiding Cognitive Errors | |
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| Some Cognitive Concepts | |
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| Cognitive Science | |
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| Studying Mental Processes | |
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| The Structure of Memory | |
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| Search Strategies | |
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| Characteristics of Expertise | |
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| Learning Clinical Problem Solving | |
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| Facts Versus Process | |
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| Pedagogic Principles | |
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| A Specific Example | |
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| The Goal Should Determine the Format | |
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| Learning by Instantiation | |
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| Learning Clinical Problem Solving Versus Problem-Based Learning | |
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| Cognition at the Bedside: A Set of Examples | |
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| Introduction to the Cases | |
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| Diagnostic Hypothesis Generation | |
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| Generation of Diagnostic Hypotheses | |
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| Hypothesis Triggering by an Expert | |
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| A Diagnostic Coup | |
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| A Quick and Accurate Solution | |
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| Better Late Than Never | |
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| A Hit After a Miss | |
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| The Critical Role of Context in the Diagnostic Process | |
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| A Masked Marauder | |
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| A Serious Lack of Focus | |
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| Refinement of Diagnostic Hypotheses | |
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| What is a Differential Diagnosis? | |
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| An Orderly, Sequential Approach | |
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| Weak Reasoning: Diagnosis by Drug Reaction | |
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| Narrowing Down the Diagnostic Options | |
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| A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words | |
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| Strategies of Information Gathering | |
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| A Fatal Flaw in Sutton's Law | |
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| How to Disregard Red Herrings | |
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| Discrimination: The Problem of Look-Alikes | |
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| Location, Location, Location | |
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| Use and Interpretation of Diagnostic Tests | |
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| Interpreting a Negative Test Result | |
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| Diagnosis and the Risks of the Primrose Path | |
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| Searching for a Pony | |
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| Interpreting Hoofbeats: Can Bayes Help Clear the Haze? | |
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| Short-Circuiting the Diagnostic Process | |
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| The Bypass on the Way to the Bypass | |
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| It is What You Believe That Counts | |
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| Renal Rescue by Reverend Bayes | |
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| A Diagnostic Fluke | |
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| Surprise! | |
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| Tripping Over Technology | |
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| The Probability of a Probability | |
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| Causal Reasoning | |
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| Judging Causality | |
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| Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc | |
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| The Case for Causal Reasoning | |
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| The Tricky Task of Attributing Causation | |
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| The Right Answer for the Wrong Reason | |
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| Diagnostic Verification | |
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| A Point-By-Point Dissection of Clinical Reasoning | |
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| Leaving No Stone Unturned | |
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| Verification | |
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| A Meticulous Approach | |
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| A Diagnostic Quandary | |
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| Diagnosis by Fiat | |
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| Iron Pyrite and Diagnostic Confirmation | |
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| Therapeutic Decision Making | |
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| The Surgeon Opts to Operate: Why? | |
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| Treat or Keep Testing? | |
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| Watch and Wait, or Operate? | |
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| An Apple or an Orange? | |
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| Examining Evidence | |
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| A Difficult Tradeoff | |
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| Making Judgments When the Evidence is Not Definitive | |
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| Using and Citing Published Evidence | |
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| A Little Math Makes the Medicine Go Down | |
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| A Rewarding Pursuit of Certainty | |
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| Treating Before Knowing | |
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| Cognitive Errors | |
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| A Defective Detective | |
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| Remedies for Faulty Hypothesis Generation | |
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| A Disaster Averted | |
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| Derailed by the Availability Heuristic | |
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| Wrong Diagnosis, Wrong Tests, Wrong Treatment | |
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| Reconsidering Failures of Therapy | |
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| The Cheetah and the Snail | |
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| A Collection of Cognitive Diagnostic Errors | |
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| Some Cognitive Concepts | |
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| A Message about Methods | |
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| Memory: How We Overcome its Limitations | |
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| Diagnosis and the Structure of Memory; Disease Polymorphism and Mental Models | |
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| Intuitive and Inspirational, or Inductive and Incremental? | |
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| Knowledge and Clinical Expertise | |
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| Learning Clinical Problem Solving | |
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| Learning Clinical Reasoning from Examples | |
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| Making a Silk Purse out of a Sow's Ear | |
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| Optimizing Case Discussions | |
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| Glossary | |
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| Bibliography | |
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| Index | |