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How Terrorism Ends Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns

ISBN-10: 069115239X
ISBN-13: 9780691152394
Edition: 2009
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Description: Amid the fear following 9/11 and other recent terror attacks, it is easy to forget the most important fact about terrorist campaigns: they always come to an end--and often far more quickly than expected. Contrary to what many assume, when it comes  More...

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Book details

Copyright year: 2009
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Publication date: 8/28/2011
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 336
Size: 6.25" wide x 9.50" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.254
Language: English

Amid the fear following 9/11 and other recent terror attacks, it is easy to forget the most important fact about terrorist campaigns: they always come to an end--and often far more quickly than expected. Contrary to what many assume, when it comes to dealing with terrorism it may be more important to understand how it ends than how it begins. Only by understanding the common ways in which terrorist movements have died out or been eradicated in the past can we hope to figure out how to speed the decline of today's terrorist groups, while avoiding unnecessary fears and costly overreactions. InHow Terrorism Ends, Audrey Kurth Cronin examines how terrorist campaigns have met their demise over the past two centuries, and applies these enduring lessons to outline a new strategy against al-Qaeda.This book answers questions such as: How long do terrorist campaigns last? When does targeting the leadership finish a group? When do negotiations lead to the end? Under what conditions do groups transition to other forms of violence, such as insurgency or civil war? How and when do they succeed or fail, and then disappear? Examining a wide range of historical examples--including the anti-tsarist Narodnaya Volya, the Provisional IRA, Peru's Shining Path, Japan's Aum Shinrikyo, and various Palestinian groups--Cronin identifies the ways in which almost all terrorist groups die out, including decapitation (catching or killing the leader), negotiation, repression, and implosion.How Terrorism Endsis the only comprehensive book on its subject and a rarity among all the books on terrorism--at once practical, optimistic, rigorous, and historical.

Audrey Kurth Cronin is professor of strategy at the U.S. National War College in Washington, DC, and senior associate in the Changing Character of War program at the University of Oxford. She is the author of "Ending Terrorism: Lessons for Defeating al-Qaeda" and the coauthor of "Attacking Terrorism: Elements of a Grand Strategy".

Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
Introduction
The Evolution of Terrorism as a Strategic Threat
A Word About Scope and Terms
The Conceptual Framework
Case Selection
Overview of Chapters
Decapitation: Catching or Killing the Leader
what decapitation Means
The Arrest of Top Leaders
Abimael Guzman and Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path)
Abdullah Ocalan and the Kurdistan Workers' Party
Mickey McKevitt and the Real Irish Republican Army
Shoko Asahara and Aum Shinrikyo
Assassination or "Targeted Killing"
The Philippines' Abu Sayyaf
Russia and Chechen Leaders
Israel's "Targeted Killings"
How Decapitation Ends Terrorism
Negotiations: Transition toward a Legitimate Political Process
why Government Negotiate
Why Groups Negotiate
Case Studies of Negotiations
The Northern Ireland Peace Process
Analysis of the Agreement
The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process
Terrorism and the Talks
The LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or Tamil Tigers)
Analysis of the Failure
Promising and Unpromising Circumstances for Negotiation
Stalemate
Strong Leadership
Sponsors
Suicide Campaigns
Splintering
Spoilers
Setting and Story
How Negotiations End Terrorism
Success: Achieving the Objective
What Does "Success" Mean?
Survival
Achievement of Objectives
Perpetuating Terrorism: Tactical or "Process" Goals
Ending Terrorism: Strategic or"Outcome" Goals
Cases of Success
Irgun Zvai Le'umi (Irgun or IZL)
The African National Congress and Umkhonto
Other Notable Cases
How Success Ends Terrorism
Conclusion
Failure: Imploding, Provoking a Backlash, or Becoming Marginalized
Implosion: Mistakes, Burnout, and Collapse
Failure to Pass the Cause to the Next Generation
Generational Patterns: Left-Wing Groups In The 1970S
Generational Patterns: Right-Wing Groups In The 1990S
Infighting and Fractionalization
Loss of Operational Control
Accepting an Exit
Marginalization: Diminishing Popular Support
The Ideology Becomes Irrelevant
Loss of Contact with "the People"
Targeting Errors and Backlash
How Failure Ends Terrorism
Repression: Crushing Terrorism with Force
Analyzing The Strategies of Terrorism
Case Studies of Repression
Russia and Narodnaya Volya
Peru and Sendero Luminoso
Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party
Uruguay and the Tupamaros
Russia and Chechnya
Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood, 1928-1966
How Repression Ends Terrorism
Reorientation: Transitioning to Another Modus Operandi
Criminality and Terrorism
Colombia and the FARC
The Philippines and Abu Sayyaf
Insurgency and Terrorism
Algeria and the G1A
Terrorism as a Catalyst for Major War
India, Pakistan, and the Kashmiri Separatist Groups
Outdates Paradigms, Practical Implications
How War Ends Terrorism
How Al-Qaeda Ends: The Relevance and Irrelevance of History
Is Al-Qaeda Unique?
Resilient Structure
Methods of Radicalization and Recruitment
Means of Support
Means of Communication
The Relevance and Irrelevance of History for Al-Qaeda: Applying the Framework
Decapitation:Capturing or Killing the Leaders
Negotiations: Talking to Al-Qaeda or Its Associates
Success: Achieving Al-Qaeda's Objectives
Failure through Implosion
Failure through Diminishment of Popular Support
Repression: Crushing Al-Qaeda with Force
Reorientation: Transitioning to Other Means
Al-Qaeda's Decline and Demise
Conclusion
Understanding How Terrorism Ends
Appendix: Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Campaigns
Notes
Selected Bibliography
Index

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