This Time Is Different Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

ISBN-10: 0691142165
ISBN-13: 9780691142166
Edition: 2009
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Book details

List price: $24.95
Copyright year: 2009
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Publication date: 10/1/2009
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 512
Size: 6.50" wide x 9.25" long x 1.75" tall
Weight: 2.2
Language: English

List of Tables
List of Figures
List of Boxes
Preface
Acknowledgments
Preamble: Some Initial Intuitions on Financial Fragility and The Fickle Nature of Confidence
Financial Crises: An Operational Primer
Varieties of Crises and Their Dates
Crises Defined by Quantitative Thresholds: Inflation, Currency Crashes, and Debasement
Crises Defined by Events: Banking Crises and External and Domestic Default
Other Key Concepts
Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default
Debt Thresholds
Measuring Vulnerability
Clubs and Regions
Reflections on Debt Intolerance
A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View
Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP
Government Finances and National Accounts
Public Debt and Its Composition
Global Variables
Country Coverage
Sovereign External Debt Crises
A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises
Sovereign Lending
Illiquidity versus Insolvency
Partial Default and Rescheduling
Odious Debt
Domestic Public Debt
Conclusions
Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt
Recurring Patterns
Default and Banking Crises
Default and Inflation
Global Factors and Cycles of Global External Default
The Duration of Default Episodes
External Default through History
The Early History of Serial Default: Emerging Europe, 1300--1799
Capital Inflows and Default: An "Old World" Story
External Sovereign Default after 1800: A Global Picture
The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default
The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default
Domestic and External Debt
Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition
Episodes of Domestic Default
Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt
Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation
Understanding the Debt Intolerance Puzzle
Domestic Debt on the Eve and in the Aftermath of External Default
The Literature on Inflation and the "Inflation Tax"
Defining the Tax Base: Domestic Debt or the Monetary Base?
The "Temptation to Inflate" Revisited
Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior?
Real GDP in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults
Inflation in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults
The Incidence of Default on Debts Owed to External and Domestic Creditors
Summary and Discussion of Selected Issues
Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes
Banking Crises
A Preamble on the Theory of Banking Crises
Banking Crises: An Equal-Opportunity Menace
Banking Crises, Capital Mobility, and Financial Liberalization
Capital Flow Bonanzas, Credit Cycles, and Asset Prices
Overcapacity Bubbles in the Financial Industry?
The Fiscal Legacy of Financial Crises Revisited
Living with the Wreckage: Some Observations
Default through Debasement: An "Old World Favorite"
Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes
An Early History of Inflation Crises
Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons
Currency Crashes
The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses
Undoing Domestic Dollarization
The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction
The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison
A Global Historical View of the Subprime Crisis and Its Aftermath
The This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome and the Run-up to the Subprime Crisis
Risks Posed by Sustained U.S. Borrowing from the Rest of the World: The Debate before the Crisis
The Episodes of Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crisis
A Comparison of the Subprime Crisis with Past Crises in Advanced Economies
Summary
The Aftermath of Financial Crises
Historical Episodes Revisited
The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration
The Fiscal Legacy of Crises
Sovereign Risk
Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930s
Concluding Remarks
The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis: The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals?
Concepts of Contagion
Selected Earlier Episodes
Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction
Are More Spillovers Under Way?
Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil
Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index
Defining a Global Financial Crisis
The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype
Summary
What Have We Learned?
Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and the Foibles of Human Nature
On Early Warnings of Crises
The Role of International Institutions
Graduation
Some Observations on Policy Responses
The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome
Data Appendixes
Macroeconomic Time Series
Public Debt
Dates of Banking Crises
Historical Summaries of Banking Crises
Notes
References
Name Index
Subject Index

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