Expert Political Judgment How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

ISBN-10: 0691128715
ISBN-13: 9780691128719
Edition: 2005
List price: $35.00 Buy it from $31.63
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Description: Clearly written and well researched, this text will help fill a void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert  More...

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Book details

List price: $35.00
Copyright year: 2005
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Publication date: 8/20/2006
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 352
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.25" long x 0.75" tall
Weight: 0.924
Language: English

Clearly written and well researched, this text will help fill a void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

Acknowledgments
Preface
Quantifying the Unquantifiable
The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism
Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs
Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs
Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios
The Hedgehogs Strike Back
Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness?
Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability
Methodological Appendix
Technical Appendix
Index

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