Expert Political Judgment How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Name: Expert Political Judgment How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Price: 4.38 USD
Availability: InStock
ISBN: 9780691128719

ISBN-10: 0691128715

ISBN-13: 9780691128719

Edition: 2006

Authors: Philip E. Tetlock

List price: $35.00

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Description:

Clearly written and well researched, this text will help fill a void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

Book details

List price: $35.00
Copyright year: 2006
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Publication date: 8/20/2006
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 344
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.25" long x 0.75" tall
Weight: 1.100



Acknowledgments


Preface



Quantifying the Unquantifiable



The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism



Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs



Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs



Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios



The Hedgehogs Strike Back



Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness?



Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability


Methodological Appendix


Technical Appendix



Index