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| Acknowledgments | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Types of Disease | |
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| Characterization of Diseases | |
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| Control of Infectious Diseases | |
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| What Are Mathematical Models? | |
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| What Models Can Do | |
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| What Models Cannot Do | |
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| What Is a Good Model? | |
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| Layout of This Book | |
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| What Else Should You Know? | |
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| Introduction to Simple Epidemic Models | |
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| Formulating the Deterministic SIR Model | |
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| The SIR Model Without Demography | |
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| The Threshold Phenomenon | |
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| Epidemic Burnout | |
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| Worked Example: Influenza in a Boarding School | |
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| The SIR Model With Demography | |
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| The Equilibrium State | |
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| Stability Properties | |
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| Oscillatory Dynamics | |
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| Mean Age at Infection | |
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| Infection-Induced Mortality and SI Models | |
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| Mortality Throughout Infection | |
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| Density-Dependent Transmission | |
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| Frequency Dependent Transmission | |
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| Mortality Late in Infection | |
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| Fatal Infections | |
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| Without Immunity: The SIS Model | |
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| Waning Immunity: The SIRS Model | |
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| Adding a Latent Period: The SEIR Model | |
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| Infections with a Carrier State | |
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| Discrete-Time Models | |
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| Parameterization | |
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| Estimating R0 from Reported Cases | |
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| Estimating R0 from Seroprevalence Data | |
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| Estimating Parameters in General | |
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| Summary | |
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| Host Heterogeneities | |
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| Risk-Structure: Sexually Transmitted Infections | |
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| Modeling Risk Structure | |
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| High-Risk and Low-Risk Groups | |
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| Initial Dynamics | |
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| Equilibrium Prevalence | |
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| Targeted Control | |
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| Generalizing the Model | |
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| Parameterization | |
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| Two Applications of Risk Structure | |
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| Early Dynamics of HIV | |
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| Chlamydia Infections in Koalas | |
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| Other Types of Risk Structure | |
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| Age-Structure: Childhood Infections | |
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| Basic Methodology | |
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| Initial Dynamics | |
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| Equilibrium Prevalence | |
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| Control by Vaccination | |
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| Parameterization | |
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| Applications of Age Structure | |
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| Dynamics of Measles | |
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| Spread and Control of BSE | |
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| Dependence on Time Since Infection | |
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| SEIR and Multi-Compartment Models | |
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| Models with Memory | |
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| Application: SARS | |
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| Future Directions | |
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| Summary | |
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| Multi-Pathogen/Multi-Host Models | |
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| Multiple Pathogens | |
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| Complete Cross-Immunity | |
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| Evolutionary Implications | |
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| No Cross-Immunity | |
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| Application: The Interaction of Measles and Whooping Cough | |
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| Application: Multiple Malaria Strains | |
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| Enhanced Susceptibility | |
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| Partial Cross-Immunity | |
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| Evolutionary Implications | |
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| Oscillations Driven by Cross-Immunity | |
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| A General Framework | |
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| Multiple Hosts | |
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| Shared Hosts | |
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| Application: Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease | |
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| Application: Parapoxvirus and the Decline of the Red Squirrel | |
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| Vectored Transmission | |
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| Mosquito Vectors | |
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| Sessile Vectors | |
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| Zoonoses | |
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| Directly Transmitted Zoonoses | |
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| Vector-Borne Zoonoses: West Nile Virus | |
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| Future Directions | |
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| Summary | |
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| Temporally Forced Models | |
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| Historical Background | |
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| Seasonality in Other Systems | |
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| Modeling Forcing in Childhood Infectious Diseases: Measles | |
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| Dynamical Consequences of Seasonality: Harmonic and Subharmonic Resonance | |
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| Mechanisms of Multi-Annual Cycles | |
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| Bifurcation Diagrams | |
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| Multiple Attractors and Their Basins | |
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| Which Forcing Function? | |
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| Dynamical Trasitions | |