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| Preface | |
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| Introduction | |
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| The Reflection Problem | |
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| The Law of Decreasing Credibility | |
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| Identification and Statistical Inference | |
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| Prediction and Decisions | |
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| Coping with Ambiguity | |
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| Organization of the Book | |
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| The Developing Literature on Partial Identification | |
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| Prediction with Incomplete Data | |
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| Conditional Prediction | |
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| Predicting Criminality | |
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| Probabilistic Prediction | |
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| Estimation of Best Predictors from Random Samples | |
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| Extrapolation | |
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| Predicting High School Graduation | |
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| Best Predictors under Square and Absolute Loss | |
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| Nonparametric Regression Analysis | |
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| Word Problems | |
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| Missing Outcomes | |
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| Anatomy of the Problem | |
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| Bounding the Probability of Exiting Homelessness | |
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| Means of Functions of the Outcome | |
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| Parameters That Respect Stochastic Dominance | |
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| Distributional Assumptions | |
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| Wage Regressions and the Reservation-Wage Model of Labor Supply | |
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| Statistical Inference | |
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| Interval Measurement of Outcomes | |
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| Jointly Missing Outcomes and Covariates | |
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| Convergence of Sets to Sets | |
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| Instrumental Variables | |
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| Distributional Assumptions and Credible Inference | |
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| Missingness at Random | |
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| Statistical Independence | |
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| Equality of Means | |
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| Inequality of Means | |
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| Imputations and Nonresponse Weights | |
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| Conditioning on the Propensity Score | |
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| Word Problems | |
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| Parametric Prediction | |
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| The Normal-Linear Model of Market and Reservation Wages | |
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| Selection Models | |
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| Parametric Models for Best Predictors | |
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| Minimum-Distance Estimation of Partially Identified Models | |
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| Decomposition of Mixtures | |
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| The Inferential Problem and Some Manifestations | |
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| Binary Mixing Covariates | |
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| Contamination through Imputation | |
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| Instrumental Variables | |
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| Sharp Bounds on Parameters That Respect Stochastic Dominance | |
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| Response-Based Sampling | |
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| The Odds Ratio and Public Health | |
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| Bounds on Relative and Attributable Risk | |
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| Information on Marginal Distributions | |
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| Sampling from One Response Stratum | |
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| General Binary Stratifications | |
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| Analysis of Treatment Response | |
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| The Selection Problem | |
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| Anatomy of the Problem | |
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| Sentencing and Recidivism | |
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| Randomized Experiments | |
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| Compliance with Treatment Assignment | |
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| Treatment by Choice | |
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| Treatment at Random in Nonexperimental Settings | |
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| Homogeneous Linear Response | |
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| Perspectives on Treatment Comparison | |
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| Word Problems | |
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| Linear Simultaneous Equations | |
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| Simultaneity in Competitive Markets | |
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| The Linear Market Model | |
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| Equilibrium in Games | |
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| The Reflection Problem | |
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| Monotone Treatment Response | |
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| Shape Restrictions | |
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| Bounds on Parameters That Respect Stochastic Dominance | |
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| Bounds on Treatment Effects | |
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| Monotone Response and Selection | |
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| Bounding the Returns to Schooling | |
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| The Mixing Problem | |
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| Extrapolation from Experiments to Rules with Treatment Variation | |
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| Extrapolation from the Perry Preschool Experiment | |
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| Identification of Event Probabilities with the Experimental Evidence Alone | |
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| Treatment Response Assumptions | |
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| Treatment Rule Assumptions | |
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| Combining Assumptions | |
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| Planning under Ambiguity | |
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| Studying Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice | |
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| Criteria for Choice under Ambiguity | |
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| Treatment Using Data from an Experiment with Partial Compliance | |
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| An Additive Planning Problem | |
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| Planning with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response | |
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| Planning and the Selection Problem | |
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| The Ethics of Fractional Treatment Rules | |
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| Decentralized Treatment Choice | |
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| Minimax-Regret Rules for Two Treatments Are Fractional | |
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| Reporting Observable Variation in Treatment Response | |
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| Word Problems | |
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| Planning with Sample Data | |
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| Statistical Induction | |
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| Wald's Development of Statistical Decision Theory | |
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| Using a Randomized Experiment to Evaluate an Innovation | |
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| Predicting Choice Behavior | |
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| Revealed Preference Analysis | |
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| Revealing the Preferences of an Individual | |
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| Random Utility Models of Population Choice Behavior | |
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| College Choice in America | |
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| Random Expected-Utility Models | |
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| Prediction Assuming Strict Preferences | |
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| Axiomatic Decision Theory | |
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| Measuring Expectations | |
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| Elicitation of Expectations from Survey Respondents | |
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| Illustrative Findings | |
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| Using Expectations Data to Predict Choice Behavior | |
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| Measuring Ambiguity | |
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| The Predictive Power of Intentions Data: A Best-Case Analysis | |
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| Measuring Expectations of Facts | |
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| Studying Human Decision Processes | |
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| As-If Rationality and Bounded Rationality | |
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| Choice Experiments | |
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| Prospects for a Neuroscientific Synthesis | |
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| References | |
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| Author Index | |
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| Subject Index | |