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Surprise Attack The Victim's Perspective

ISBN-10: 0674013549
ISBN-13: 9780674013544
Edition: 2004
Authors: Ephraim Kam
List price: $30.50
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Description: Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at  More...

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Book details

List price: $30.50
Copyright year: 2004
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Publication date: 5/15/2004
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 304
Size: 6.25" wide x 9.25" long x 0.75" tall
Weight: 1.012
Language: English

Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints.

Ephraim Kam is Deputy Head, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel-Aviv University, Israel.

Foreword
Introduction
The Components of Suprise Attack
The Essence of Suprise Attack Reaction to Disasters and Warnings
Aspects of Erroneous Estimates
The Strategic Warning
Surprise and Military Preparedness
Information and Indicators
Quality of Intelligence Information
Early Warning Indicators
Signal and Noise
Quantity of Intelligence Information
Intentions and Capabilities
Inference and Difficulties in Estimating Intentions
The Enemy's Conceptual Framework
Risk Taking by the Enemy
Estimating Capabilities
Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis
Conceptions and Incoming Information
The Set of Conceptions
The Persistence of Conceptions
Assimilating Information
Information and Expectations
Treating Discrepant Information
Cognitive Biases and Overconfidence
The Process of Analysis
Prediction and Intelligence Analysis
Stages of Intelligence Analysis
Approaches for Generating and Evaluating Hypotheses
Analogies and Learning from History
Evaluating Incoming Information
Hoosing among Alternative Hypotheses
External Obstacles to Perception
Changing a View
The Enviroment
The Analyst and the Small Group
The Other Opinion
Groupthink
Pressures for Conformity
The Leader and the Expert
Group Risk Taking
Organizational Obstacles
The Military Organization
Rivalry, Coordination, and Communication
Intrinsic Problems in the Intelligence Organization
Military Men and Suprise Attack
Intelligence and Decision Makers
Decision Makers and Intelligence Production
Commitment to a Policy
How Decision Makers Affect the Intelligence Process
Decision Makers and Suprise Attack
Conclusion: Is Suprise Attack Inevitable?
The Complexity of the Problem
Why Safeuards Usually Fail
War without Surprise?
Notes
Bibliography
Index

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