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Data, Models, and Decisions : The Fundamentals of Management Science

ISBN-10: 0538859067
ISBN-13: 9780538859066
Edition: 2000
List price: $107.95
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Book details

List price: $107.95
Copyright year: 2000
Publisher: Cengage South-Western
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 672
Size: 8.00" wide x 10.00" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 2.640
Language: English

Decision Analysisp. 1
A Decision Tree Model and its Analysisp. 2
Summary of the General Method of Decision Analysisp. 16
Another Decision Tree Model and its Analysisp. 17
The Need for a Systematic Theory of Probabilityp. 30
Further Issues and Concluding Remarks on Decision Analysisp. 33
Case Modulesp. 35
Kendall Crab and Lobster, Inc.p. 35
Buying a Housep. 38
The Acquisition of DSOFTp. 38
National Realty Investment Corporationp. 39
Exercisesp. 44
Fundamentals of Discrete Probabilityp. 49
Outcomes, Probabilities and Eventsp. 50
The Laws of Probabilityp. 51
Working with Probabilities and Probability Tablesp. 54
Random Variablesp. 65
Discrete Probability Distributionsp. 66
The Binomial Distributionp. 67
Summary Measures of Probability Distributionsp. 72
Linear Functions of a Random Variablep. 79
Covariance and Correlationp. 82
Joint Probability Distributions and Independencep. 86
Sums of Two Random Variablesp. 88
Some Advanced Methods in Probability*p. 91
Summaryp. 96
Case Modulesp. 97
Arizona Instrumentation, Inc. and the Economic Development Board of Singaporep. 97
San Carlos Mud Slidesp. 98
Graphic Corporationp. 99
Exercisesp. 100
Continuous Probability Distributions and Their Applicationsp. 111
Continuous Random Variablesp. 111
The Probability Density Functionp. 112
The Cumulative Distribution Functionp. 115
The Normal Distributionp. 120
Computing Probabilities for the Normal Distributionp. 127
Sums of Normally Distributed Random Variablesp. 132
The Central Limit Theoremp. 135
Summaryp. 139
Exercisesp. 139
Statistical Samplingp. 147
Random Samplesp. 148
Statistics of a Random Samplep. 150
Confidence Intervals for the Mean, for Large Sample Sizep. 161
The t-Distributionp. 165
Confidence Intervals for the Mean, for Small Sample Sizep. 166
Estimation and Confidence Intervals for the Population Proportionp. 169
Experimental Designp. 174
Comparing Estimates of the Mean of Two Distributionsp. 178
Comparing Estimates of the Population Proportion of Two Populationsp. 180
Summary and Extensionsp. 182
Case Modulesp. 183
Consumer Convenience, Inc.p. 183
Posidon, Inc.p. 184
Housing Prices in Lexington, Massachusettsp. 185
Scallop Samplingp. 185
Exercisesp. 189
Simulation Modeling: Concepts and Practicep. 195
A Simple Problem: Operations at Conley Fisheriesp. 196
Preliminary Analysis of Conley Fisheriesp. 197
A Simulation Model of the Conley Fisheries Problemp. 199
Random Number Generatorsp. 201
Creating Numbers that Obey a Discrete Probability Distributionp. 203
Creating Numbers that Obey a Continuous Probability Distributionp. 205
Completing the Simulation Model of Conley Fisheriesp. 211
Using the Sample Data for Analysisp. 213
Summary of Simulation Modeling, and Guidelines on the Use of Simulationp. 217
Computer Software for Simulation Modelingp. 217
Typical Uses of Simulation Modelsp. 218
Case Modulesp. 219
The Gentle Lentil Restaurantp. 219
To Hedge or not to Hedge?p. 223
Ontario Gatewayp. 228
Casterbridge Bankp. 235
Regression Models: Concepts and Practicep. 245
Prediction Based on Simple Linear Regressionp. 246
Prediction Based on Multiple Linear Regressionp. 253
Using Spreadsheet Software for Linear Regressionp. 258
Interpretation of Computer Output of a Linear Regression Modelp. 259
Sample Correlation and R[superscript 2] in Simple Linear Regressionp. 271
Validating the Regression Modelp. 274
Warnings and Issues in Linear Regression Modelingp. 279
Regression Modeling Techniquesp. 283
Illustration of the Regression Modeling Processp. 288
Summary and Conclusionsp. 294
Case Modulesp. 295
Predicting Heating Oil Consumption at OILPLUSp. 295
Executive Compensationp. 297
The Construction Department at Croq'Painp. 299
Sloan Investors, Part Ip. 306
Exercisesp. 313
Linear Optimizationp. 323
Formulating a Management Problem as a Linear Optimization Modelp. 324
Key Concepts and Definitionsp. 332
Solution of a Linear Optimization Modelp. 335
Creating and Solving a Linear Optimization Model in a Spreadsheetp. 347
Sensitivity Analysis and Shadow Prices on Constraintsp. 354
Guidelines for Constructing and Using Linear Optimization Modelsp. 365
Linear Optimization Under Uncertainty*p. 367
A Brief Historical Sketch of the Development of Linear Optimizationp. 374
Case Modulesp. 375
Short-Run Manufacturing Problems at DECp. 375
Sytech Internationalp. 380
Filatoi Riunitip. 389
Exercisesp. 397
Nonlinear Optimizationp. 411
Formulating a Management Problem as a Nonlinear Optimization Modelp. 412
Graphical Analysis of Nonlinear Optimization Models in Two Variablesp. 420
Computer Solution of Nonlinear Optimization Problemsp. 425
Shadow Prices Information in Nonlinear Optimization Modelsp. 428
A Closer Look at Portfolio Optimizationp. 431
Taxonomy of the Solvability of Nonlinear Optimization Problems*p. 432
Case Modulesp. 436
Endurance Investorsp. 436
Capacity Investment, Marketing, and Production at ILG, Inc.p. 442
Exercisesp. 444
Discrete Optimizationp. 451
Formulating a Management Problem as a Discrete Optimization Modelp. 452
Graphical Analysis of Discrete Optimization Models in Two Variablesp. 461
Computer Solution of Discrete Optimization Problemsp. 464
The Branch-and-Bound Method for Solving a Discrete Optimization Model*p. 468
Summaryp. 471
Case Modulesp. 471
International Industries, Inc.p. 471
Supply Chain Management at Dellmar, Inc.p. 474
The National Basketball Dream Teamp. 476
Exercisesp. 478
Intergration in the Art of Decision Modelingp. 485
Management Science Models in the Airline Industryp. 486
Management Science Models in the Investment Management Industryp. 496
A Year in the Life of a Manufacturing Companyp. 498
Summaryp. 501
Case Modulesp. 502
Sloan Investors, Part IIp. 502
Revenue Management at Atlantic Airp. 503
A Strategic Alliance for the Lexington Laser Corporationp. 508
Yield of a Multi-step Manufacturing Processp. 510
Prediction of Yields in Manufacturingp. 512
Allocation of Production Personnelp. 513
Appendixp. 517
Referencesp. 521
Indexp. 525
Table of Contents provided by Syndetics. All Rights Reserved.

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