Decision Analysis | p. 1 |

A Decision Tree Model and its Analysis | p. 2 |

Summary of the General Method of Decision Analysis | p. 16 |

Another Decision Tree Model and its Analysis | p. 17 |

The Need for a Systematic Theory of Probability | p. 30 |

Further Issues and Concluding Remarks on Decision Analysis | p. 33 |

Case Modules | p. 35 |

Kendall Crab and Lobster, Inc. | p. 35 |

Buying a House | p. 38 |

The Acquisition of DSOFT | p. 38 |

National Realty Investment Corporation | p. 39 |

Exercises | p. 44 |

Fundamentals of Discrete Probability | p. 49 |

Outcomes, Probabilities and Events | p. 50 |

The Laws of Probability | p. 51 |

Working with Probabilities and Probability Tables | p. 54 |

Random Variables | p. 65 |

Discrete Probability Distributions | p. 66 |

The Binomial Distribution | p. 67 |

Summary Measures of Probability Distributions | p. 72 |

Linear Functions of a Random Variable | p. 79 |

Covariance and Correlation | p. 82 |

Joint Probability Distributions and Independence | p. 86 |

Sums of Two Random Variables | p. 88 |

Some Advanced Methods in Probability* | p. 91 |

Summary | p. 96 |

Case Modules | p. 97 |

Arizona Instrumentation, Inc. and the Economic Development Board of Singapore | p. 97 |

San Carlos Mud Slides | p. 98 |

Graphic Corporation | p. 99 |

Exercises | p. 100 |

Continuous Probability Distributions and Their Applications | p. 111 |

Continuous Random Variables | p. 111 |

The Probability Density Function | p. 112 |

The Cumulative Distribution Function | p. 115 |

The Normal Distribution | p. 120 |

Computing Probabilities for the Normal Distribution | p. 127 |

Sums of Normally Distributed Random Variables | p. 132 |

The Central Limit Theorem | p. 135 |

Summary | p. 139 |

Exercises | p. 139 |

Statistical Sampling | p. 147 |

Random Samples | p. 148 |

Statistics of a Random Sample | p. 150 |

Confidence Intervals for the Mean, for Large Sample Size | p. 161 |

The t-Distribution | p. 165 |

Confidence Intervals for the Mean, for Small Sample Size | p. 166 |

Estimation and Confidence Intervals for the Population Proportion | p. 169 |

Experimental Design | p. 174 |

Comparing Estimates of the Mean of Two Distributions | p. 178 |

Comparing Estimates of the Population Proportion of Two Populations | p. 180 |

Summary and Extensions | p. 182 |

Case Modules | p. 183 |

Consumer Convenience, Inc. | p. 183 |

Posidon, Inc. | p. 184 |

Housing Prices in Lexington, Massachusetts | p. 185 |

Scallop Sampling | p. 185 |

Exercises | p. 189 |

Simulation Modeling: Concepts and Practice | p. 195 |

A Simple Problem: Operations at Conley Fisheries | p. 196 |

Preliminary Analysis of Conley Fisheries | p. 197 |

A Simulation Model of the Conley Fisheries Problem | p. 199 |

Random Number Generators | p. 201 |

Creating Numbers that Obey a Discrete Probability Distribution | p. 203 |

Creating Numbers that Obey a Continuous Probability Distribution | p. 205 |

Completing the Simulation Model of Conley Fisheries | p. 211 |

Using the Sample Data for Analysis | p. 213 |

Summary of Simulation Modeling, and Guidelines on the Use of Simulation | p. 217 |

Computer Software for Simulation Modeling | p. 217 |

Typical Uses of Simulation Models | p. 218 |

Case Modules | p. 219 |

The Gentle Lentil Restaurant | p. 219 |

To Hedge or not to Hedge? | p. 223 |

Ontario Gateway | p. 228 |

Casterbridge Bank | p. 235 |

Regression Models: Concepts and Practice | p. 245 |

Prediction Based on Simple Linear Regression | p. 246 |

Prediction Based on Multiple Linear Regression | p. 253 |

Using Spreadsheet Software for Linear Regression | p. 258 |

Interpretation of Computer Output of a Linear Regression Model | p. 259 |

Sample Correlation and R[superscript 2] in Simple Linear Regression | p. 271 |

Validating the Regression Model | p. 274 |

Warnings and Issues in Linear Regression Modeling | p. 279 |

Regression Modeling Techniques | p. 283 |

Illustration of the Regression Modeling Process | p. 288 |

Summary and Conclusions | p. 294 |

Case Modules | p. 295 |

Predicting Heating Oil Consumption at OILPLUS | p. 295 |

Executive Compensation | p. 297 |

The Construction Department at Croq'Pain | p. 299 |

Sloan Investors, Part I | p. 306 |

Exercises | p. 313 |

Linear Optimization | p. 323 |

Formulating a Management Problem as a Linear Optimization Model | p. 324 |

Key Concepts and Definitions | p. 332 |

Solution of a Linear Optimization Model | p. 335 |

Creating and Solving a Linear Optimization Model in a Spreadsheet | p. 347 |

Sensitivity Analysis and Shadow Prices on Constraints | p. 354 |

Guidelines for Constructing and Using Linear Optimization Models | p. 365 |

Linear Optimization Under Uncertainty* | p. 367 |

A Brief Historical Sketch of the Development of Linear Optimization | p. 374 |

Case Modules | p. 375 |

Short-Run Manufacturing Problems at DEC | p. 375 |

Sytech International | p. 380 |

Filatoi Riuniti | p. 389 |

Exercises | p. 397 |

Nonlinear Optimization | p. 411 |

Formulating a Management Problem as a Nonlinear Optimization Model | p. 412 |

Graphical Analysis of Nonlinear Optimization Models in Two Variables | p. 420 |

Computer Solution of Nonlinear Optimization Problems | p. 425 |

Shadow Prices Information in Nonlinear Optimization Models | p. 428 |

A Closer Look at Portfolio Optimization | p. 431 |

Taxonomy of the Solvability of Nonlinear Optimization Problems* | p. 432 |

Case Modules | p. 436 |

Endurance Investors | p. 436 |

Capacity Investment, Marketing, and Production at ILG, Inc. | p. 442 |

Exercises | p. 444 |

Discrete Optimization | p. 451 |

Formulating a Management Problem as a Discrete Optimization Model | p. 452 |

Graphical Analysis of Discrete Optimization Models in Two Variables | p. 461 |

Computer Solution of Discrete Optimization Problems | p. 464 |

The Branch-and-Bound Method for Solving a Discrete Optimization Model* | p. 468 |

Summary | p. 471 |

Case Modules | p. 471 |

International Industries, Inc. | p. 471 |

Supply Chain Management at Dellmar, Inc. | p. 474 |

The National Basketball Dream Team | p. 476 |

Exercises | p. 478 |

Intergration in the Art of Decision Modeling | p. 485 |

Management Science Models in the Airline Industry | p. 486 |

Management Science Models in the Investment Management Industry | p. 496 |

A Year in the Life of a Manufacturing Company | p. 498 |

Summary | p. 501 |

Case Modules | p. 502 |

Sloan Investors, Part II | p. 502 |

Revenue Management at Atlantic Air | p. 503 |

A Strategic Alliance for the Lexington Laser Corporation | p. 508 |

Yield of a Multi-step Manufacturing Process | p. 510 |

Prediction of Yields in Manufacturing | p. 512 |

Allocation of Production Personnel | p. 513 |

Appendix | p. 517 |

References | p. 521 |

Index | p. 525 |

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