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Simulation and Conditional Probability | |
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Getting Started with Simtools in Excel | |
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How to Toss Coins in a Spreadsheet | |
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A Simulation Model of 20 Sales Calls | |
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Analysis Using Excel's Data-Table Command | |
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Conditional Independence | |
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A Continuous Random Skill Variable from a Triangular Distribution | |
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Probability Trees and Bayes' Rule | |
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Advanced Spreadsheet Techniques: Constructing a Table with Multiple Inputs | |
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Using Models | |
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Summary | |
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Exercises | |
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Discrete Random Variables | |
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Unknown Quantities in Decisions Under Uncertainty | |
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Charting a Probability Distribution | |
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Simulating Discrete Random Variables | |
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Expected Value and Standard Deviation | |
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Estimates from Sample Data | |
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Accuracy of Sample Estimates | |
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Decision Criteria | |
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Multiple Random Variables | |
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Summary | |
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Exercises | |
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Utility Theory with Constant Risk Tolerance | |
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Taking Account of Risk Aversion: Utility Analysis with Probabilities | |
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Utility Analysis from Simulation Data | |
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The More General Assumption of Linear Risk Tolerance | |
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Advanced Technical Note on Utility Theory | |
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Advanced Technical Note on Constant Risk Tolerance | |
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Summary | |
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Exercises | |
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Continuous Random Variables | |
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Normal Distributions | |
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EXP and LN | |
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Lognormal Distributions | |
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Generalized Lognormal Distributions | |
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Subjective Probability Assessment | |
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A Decision Problem with Discrete and Continuous Unknowns | |
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Certainty Equivalents of Normal Lotteries | |
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Other Probability Distributions | |
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Summary | |
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Exercises | |
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Correlation and Multivariate Normal Random Variables | |
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Joint Distributions of Discrete Random Variables | |
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Covariance and Correlation | |
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Linear Functions of Several Random Variables | |
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Estimating Correlations from Data | |
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Making Multivariate Normal Random Variables with CORAND and NORMINV | |
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Portfolio Analysis with Multivariate Normal Asset Returns | |
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Excel Solver and Efficient Portfolio Design | |
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Subjective Assessment of Correlations | |
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Using CORAND with Non-Normal Random Variables | |
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More About Linear Functions of Random Variables | |
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Summary | |
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Exercises | |
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Conditional Expectation | |
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Dependence Among Random Variables | |
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Estimating Conditional Expectations and Standard Deviations | |
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The Expected-Posterior Law in a Discrete Example | |
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Backwards Analysis of Conditional Expectations in Tree Diagrams | |
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Conditional Expectation Relationships and Correlation | |
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Uncertainty About a Probability | |
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Linear Regression Models | |
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Regression Analysis and Least-Squared Errors | |
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Summary | |
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Exercises | |
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Optimization of Decision Variables | |
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General Techniques for Using Simulation in Decision Analysis | |
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Strategic Use of Information | |
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Decision Trees | |
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A Simple Bidding Problem | |
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The Winner's Curse | |
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Analyzing Competitive Behavior | |
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Summary | |
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Exercises | |
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Risk Sharing and Finance | |
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Optimal Risk Sharing in a Partnership of Individuals with Constant Risk Tolerance | |
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Optimality of Linear Rules in the Larger Class of Nonlinear Sharing Rules | |
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Risk Sharing Subject to Moral-Hazard Incentive Constraints | |
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Piecewise-Linear Sharing Rules with Moral Hazard | |
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Corporate Decision Making and Asset Pricing in the Stock Market | |
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Fundamental Ideas of Arbitrage Pricing Theory | |
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Summary | |
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Exercises | |
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Dynamic Models of Growth and Arrivals | |
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Net Present Value | |
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Forecasting Models | |
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Forecasting Example: Goeing Case | |
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Brownian-Motion Growth Models | |
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Log-Optimal Investment Strategies | |
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Exponential Arrival Models | |
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Queuing Models | |
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A Simple Inventory Model | |
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Project Length and Critical Tasks | |
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Summary | |
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Exercises | |
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Excel Add-Ins for Use with This Book | |
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Bibliographic Note | |
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Index | |