Decision Making with Insight

ISBN-10: 0534386393
ISBN-13: 9780534386399
Edition: 2nd 2003 (Revised)
Authors: Sam L. Savage
List price: $85.95 Buy it from $22.36
This item qualifies for FREE shipping

*A minimum purchase of $35 is required. Shipping is provided via FedEx SmartPost® and FedEx Express Saver®. Average delivery time is 1 – 5 business days, but is not guaranteed in that timeframe. Also allow 1 - 2 days for processing. Free shipping is eligible only in the continental United States and excludes Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico. FedEx service marks used by permission."Marketplace" orders are not eligible for free or discounted shipping.

30 day, 100% satisfaction guarantee

If an item you ordered from TextbookRush does not meet your expectations due to an error on our part, simply fill out a return request and then return it by mail within 30 days of ordering it for a full refund of item cost.

Learn more about our returns policy

Description: Dr. Sam Savage, who's recognized as a leading innovator in management science education, provides the most hands-on , practical introduction to methods of decision making. This book and accompanying suite of Excel add-ins for quantitative analysis  More...

Used Starting from $105.78
what's this?
Rush Rewards U
Members Receive:
coins
coins
You have reached 400 XP and carrot coins. That is the daily max!
You could win $10,000

Get an entry for every item you buy, rent, or sell.

Study Briefs

Limited time offer: Get the first one free! (?)

All the information you need in one place! Each Study Brief is a summary of one specific subject; facts, figures, and explanations to help you learn faster.

Add to cart
Study Briefs
Calculus 1 Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
Algebra Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
Introduction to Logic Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
Business Math Formulas Online content $4.95 $1.99

Customers also bought

Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading

Book details

List price: $85.95
Edition: 2nd
Copyright year: 2003
Publisher: Brooks/Cole
Publication date: 1/14/2003
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 344
Size: 7.50" wide x 9.25" long x 0.75" tall
Weight: 1.320
Language: English

Dr. Sam Savage, who's recognized as a leading innovator in management science education, provides the most hands-on , practical introduction to methods of decision making. This book and accompanying suite of Excel add-ins for quantitative analysis covers Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, queuing simulations, optimization, Markov chains, and forecasting. The Insight add-ins have been developed over several years by the author.

Fundamental Concepts
Exercises
Tutorials
Road Map
Overview of Decision Making with Insight and INSIGHT.xla 2.0
Application Matrix
Analytical Modeling in Spreadsheets
Introduction
The Technology of Decision Making
Disciplined Intuition: A Philosophy
Analytical Models
Tutorial: Important Modeling Techniques
Understanding the Elements of a Worksheet Model
Separation of Data and Formulas
Making Sure the Model is Scalable
Experimenting with the Model
The Voices of Experience
The Pros and Cons of Spreadsheet Modeling
First the Cons
Now the Pros
The Building Blocks of Uncertainty: Random Variables
Introduction
From Manhattan Project to Wall Street
XLSim
Tutorial: Estimating Profit with Monte Carlo Simulation
An Example: Uncertain Profit
Monte Carlo Simulation: The Basic Steps
The Building Blocks of Uncertainty
Uncertain Numbers: Random Variables
Averages of Uncertain Numbers: Diversification and the Central Limit Theorem
Important Classes of Uncertain Numbers: Idealized Distributions
An Investment Example
Risk vs. Uncertainty: Risk Management
Value at Risk: Managing Risk in the Investment Example
Conclusion
The Buildings of Uncertainty: Functions of Random Variables
Introduction
Tutorial: Estimating Inventory Costs Given Uncertain Demand
An Inventory Problem
Simulating the Cost
Simulation Results
The Flaw of Averages
The Buildings of Uncertainty
Worksheet Models Based on Uncertain Numbers: Functions of Random Variables
Experimenting Under Uncertainty: Parameterized Simulation
The Increase of Option Prices with Uncertainty: Implied Volatility
Uncertain Numbers That Are Related to Each Other: Statistical Dependence
The Connection with Linear Regression
Portfolios of Correlated Investments
How Many Trials Are Enough? Convergence
Sensitivity Analysis: The Big Picture
Hypothesis Testing: Did it Happen by Chance
Conclusion
Uncertainties That Evolve Over Time
Introduction
Systems That Evolve Over Time
QUEUE.xla and Q_NET.xla
Simulation Through Time: Discrete-Event Simulation
A Fixed-Time-Incremented Simulation of a Forest Fire
Cellular Automata
Queuing Models
Classifying Queues
Fixed- versus Event-Incremented Time
Queuing Networks
The Extend Discrete Event Simulation Software
Combining Excel Models with Extend
Markov Chains
An Example: Market Share
MARKOV.xls
A Remarkable Property of Markov Chains
Modifying the Transition Matrix to Evaluate Replacement Strategy
Conclusion
Forecasting
Introduction
Causal Forecasting
Time Series Analysis
Using Excel's Regression and XLForecast
Tutorials: Regression and Time Series Analysis
Regression: Estimating Sales Based on Advertising Level
Time Series Analysis: Predicting Future Sales Based on Past History
The Importance of Errors
Errors Generated by Regression
Errors Generated by Time Series
Predicting the Past
Conclusions
Explanation of Regression and Exponential Smoothing
Regression
Exponential Smoothing
Decision Trees
Introduction
An Example: Ice Cream and Parking Tickets
Good Decisions versus Good Outcomes
XLTree
Tutorial: Building a Decision Tree
Experimental Drug Development
Building a Decision Tree with XLTree
Decision Analysis: Basic Concepts
Utility
Probability
Expected Value
Decision Forks
Uncertainty Forks
Sensitivity Analysis
Conditional Probability
The Value of Information
State Variables
Mustering the Courage of Your Convictions
Overview of Optimization
Introduction
The ABC's of Optimization
Tutorial: Maximum Profit
How Many Boats to Produce?
The ABC's of Optimization
Interacting with the Model: What's Best!
The D's of Optimization: Dual Values
Basic Optimization Examples
Product Mix
Blending
Staff Scheduling
Transportation
Network Flow Models
Conclusion
Extensions of Optimization
Extending the Application of Optimization
Integer Variables
Combining Optimization Models: An Object Oriented Approach
Optimization Under Uncertainty
Nonlinear Optimization
Combinatorial Optimization
Complete Evaluation Times for N-City Traveling Salesman Problem
Common Errors in Optimization Models
Linear and Nonlinear Formulas
Improper Constraints
Local Maxima or Minima in Nonlinear Optimization
The Basics of Optimization Theory
Optimizing a Simplified BOAT Problem
Linear versus Nonlinear Problems
More on Dual Values
Conclusion
Queuing Equations: QUEUE.xla and Q_NET.xla
Two-Parameter Exponential Smoothing for Estimating Trends
Software Command Reference
XLSim
QUEUE.xla and Q_NET.xla
Extend
XLForecast
XLTree
Optimization Software
References
Index
Software Contained on the CD ROM
Praise for the 1st Edition

×
Free shipping on orders over $35*

*A minimum purchase of $35 is required. Shipping is provided via FedEx SmartPost® and FedEx Express Saver®. Average delivery time is 1 – 5 business days, but is not guaranteed in that timeframe. Also allow 1 - 2 days for processing. Free shipping is eligible only in the continental United States and excludes Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico. FedEx service marks used by permission."Marketplace" orders are not eligible for free or discounted shipping.

Learn more about the TextbookRush Marketplace.

×