Decision Making with Insight

ISBN-10: 0534386393

ISBN-13: 9780534386399

Edition: 2nd 2003 (Revised)

Authors: Sam L. Savage
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Description: Dr. Sam Savage, who's recognized as a leading innovator in management science education, provides the most hands-on , practical introduction to methods of decision making. This book and accompanying suite of Excel add-ins for quantitative analysis covers Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, queuing simulations, optimization, Markov chains, and forecasting. The Insight add-ins have been developed over several years by the author.

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Book details

List price: $85.95
Edition: 2nd
Copyright year: 2003
Publisher: Brooks/Cole
Publication date: 1/14/2003
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 344
Size: 7.50" wide x 9.25" long x 0.75" tall
Weight: 1.540
Language: English

Fundamental Concepts
Road Map
Overview of Decision Making with Insight and INSIGHT.xla 2.0
Application Matrix
Analytical Modeling in Spreadsheets
The Technology of Decision Making
Disciplined Intuition: A Philosophy
Analytical Models
Tutorial: Important Modeling Techniques
Understanding the Elements of a Worksheet Model
Separation of Data and Formulas
Making Sure the Model is Scalable
Experimenting with the Model
The Voices of Experience
The Pros and Cons of Spreadsheet Modeling
First the Cons
Now the Pros
The Building Blocks of Uncertainty: Random Variables
From Manhattan Project to Wall Street
Tutorial: Estimating Profit with Monte Carlo Simulation
An Example: Uncertain Profit
Monte Carlo Simulation: The Basic Steps
The Building Blocks of Uncertainty
Uncertain Numbers: Random Variables
Averages of Uncertain Numbers: Diversification and the Central Limit Theorem
Important Classes of Uncertain Numbers: Idealized Distributions
An Investment Example
Risk vs. Uncertainty: Risk Management
Value at Risk: Managing Risk in the Investment Example
The Buildings of Uncertainty: Functions of Random Variables
Tutorial: Estimating Inventory Costs Given Uncertain Demand
An Inventory Problem
Simulating the Cost
Simulation Results
The Flaw of Averages
The Buildings of Uncertainty
Worksheet Models Based on Uncertain Numbers: Functions of Random Variables
Experimenting Under Uncertainty: Parameterized Simulation
The Increase of Option Prices with Uncertainty: Implied Volatility
Uncertain Numbers That Are Related to Each Other: Statistical Dependence
The Connection with Linear Regression
Portfolios of Correlated Investments
How Many Trials Are Enough? Convergence
Sensitivity Analysis: The Big Picture
Hypothesis Testing: Did it Happen by Chance
Uncertainties That Evolve Over Time
Systems That Evolve Over Time
QUEUE.xla and Q_NET.xla
Simulation Through Time: Discrete-Event Simulation
A Fixed-Time-Incremented Simulation of a Forest Fire
Cellular Automata
Queuing Models
Classifying Queues
Fixed- versus Event-Incremented Time
Queuing Networks
The Extend Discrete Event Simulation Software
Combining Excel Models with Extend
Markov Chains
An Example: Market Share
A Remarkable Property of Markov Chains
Modifying the Transition Matrix to Evaluate Replacement Strategy
Causal Forecasting
Time Series Analysis
Using Excel's Regression and XLForecast
Tutorials: Regression and Time Series Analysis
Regression: Estimating Sales Based on Advertising Level
Time Series Analysis: Predicting Future Sales Based on Past History
The Importance of Errors
Errors Generated by Regression
Errors Generated by Time Series
Predicting the Past
Explanation of Regression and Exponential Smoothing
Exponential Smoothing
Decision Trees
An Example: Ice Cream and Parking Tickets
Good Decisions versus Good Outcomes
Tutorial: Building a Decision Tree
Experimental Drug Development
Building a Decision Tree with XLTree
Decision Analysis: Basic Concepts
Expected Value
Decision Forks
Uncertainty Forks
Sensitivity Analysis
Conditional Probability
The Value of Information
State Variables
Mustering the Courage of Your Convictions
Overview of Optimization
The ABC's of Optimization
Tutorial: Maximum Profit
How Many Boats to Produce?
The ABC's of Optimization
Interacting with the Model: What's Best!
The D's of Optimization: Dual Values
Basic Optimization Examples
Product Mix
Staff Scheduling
Network Flow Models
Extensions of Optimization
Extending the Application of Optimization
Integer Variables
Combining Optimization Models: An Object Oriented Approach
Optimization Under Uncertainty
Nonlinear Optimization
Combinatorial Optimization
Complete Evaluation Times for N-City Traveling Salesman Problem
Common Errors in Optimization Models
Linear and Nonlinear Formulas
Improper Constraints
Local Maxima or Minima in Nonlinear Optimization
The Basics of Optimization Theory
Optimizing a Simplified BOAT Problem
Linear versus Nonlinear Problems
More on Dual Values
Queuing Equations: QUEUE.xla and Q_NET.xla
Two-Parameter Exponential Smoothing for Estimating Trends
Software Command Reference
QUEUE.xla and Q_NET.xla
Optimization Software
Software Contained on the CD ROM
Praise for the 1st Edition
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