x

Our Privacy Policy has changed. By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy.

Future Babble Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better

ISBN-10: 0525952055
ISBN-13: 9780525952053
Edition: N/A
Authors: Dan Gardner
List price: $26.95 Buy it from $2.89
30 day, 100% satisfaction guarantee

If an item you ordered from TextbookRush does not meet your expectations due to an error on our part, simply fill out a return request and then return it by mail within 30 days of ordering it for a full refund of item cost.

Learn more about our returns policy

Description: An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967,  More...

Used Starting from $14.53
what's this?
Rush Rewards U
Members Receive:
coins
coins
You have reached 400 XP and carrot coins. That is the daily max!
You could win $10,000

Get an entry for every item you buy, rent, or sell.

Study Briefs

Limited time offer: Get the first one free! (?)

All the information you need in one place! Each Study Brief is a summary of one specific subject; facts, figures, and explanations to help you learn faster.

Add to cart
Study Briefs
Psychology Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
Italian Grammar Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
Italian Grammar Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
Portuguese Grammar Online content $4.95 $1.99

Customers also bought

Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading

Book details

List price: $26.95
Publisher: Penguin Publishing Group
Publication date: 3/17/2011
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 320
Size: 6.50" wide x 9.00" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.144
Language: English

An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babbleis the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Preface
Introduction
The Unpredictable World
In the Minds of Experts
The Experts Agree: Expect Much More of the Same
Unsettled by Uncertainty
Everyone Loves a Hedgehog
When Prophets Fail
The End Is Nigh
Notes
Bibliography
Index

×
Free shipping on orders over $35*

*A minimum purchase of $35 is required. Shipping is provided via FedEx SmartPost® and FedEx Express Saver®. Average delivery time is 1 – 5 business days, but is not guaranteed in that timeframe. Also allow 1 - 2 days for processing. Free shipping is eligible only in the continental United States and excludes Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico. FedEx service marks used by permission."Marketplace" orders are not eligible for free or discounted shipping.

Learn more about the TextbookRush Marketplace.

×