Prediction, Learning, and Games

ISBN-10: 0521841089
ISBN-13: 9780521841085
Edition: 2006
List price: $93.00 Buy it from $66.00
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Description: This important new text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers the first comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard  More...

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Book details

List price: $93.00
Copyright year: 2006
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Publication date: 3/13/2006
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 408
Size: 7.00" wide x 10.00" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.936
Language: English

This important new text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers the first comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections. Old and new forecasting methods are described in a mathematically precise way in order to characterize their theoretical limitations and possibilities.

Introduction
Prediction with expert advice
Tight bounds for specific losses
Randomized prediction
Efficient forecasters for large classes of experts
Prediction with limited feedback
Prediction and playing games
Absolute loss
Logarithmic loss
Sequential investment
Linear pattern recognition
Linear classification
Appendix.

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