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Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making

ISBN-10: 0521700094
ISBN-13: 9780521700092
Edition: 2009
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Book details

List price: $47.95
Copyright year: 2009
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Publication date: 2/22/2010
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 224
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.00" long x 0.50" tall
Weight: 0.946
Language: English

Karl DeRouen, Jr. is Professor of Political Science and Director of the B.A. Program in International Studies at The University of Alabama. From 2008 to 2011, he served as a Leadership Board Faculty Fellow in the College of Arts and Sciences. His work on civil wars, mediation, conflict management, militarized interstate dispute negotiated settlements, service delivery in developing countries, and post-conflict statebuilding has been funded by the National Science Foundation, the British Academy, Department for International Development (UK), Royal Society of New Zealand, and the Folke Bernadotte Academy (Sweden). He serves on four scholarly journal editorial boards and has authored or co-authored more than 50 journal articles, two books, numerous chapters, and edited or co-edited several volumes. Recent work includes Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making (2010, with Alex Mintz; Cambridge University Press) and The Routledge Handbook of Civil War (2014, co-edited with Edward Newman, Routledge Press).

Acknowledgments
Introduction
Why Study Foreign Policy from a Decision-Making Perspective?
Foreign Policy Decision Making
Why Study Foreign Policy Decision Making?
The Rational and Cognitive Schools
Comparative Foreign Policy
Limitations of the Decision-Making Approach
Plan of the Book
The Decision Environment
Types of Decisions and Levels of Analysis in Foreign Policy Decision Making
Types of Decisions
Unilateral, Negotiated, Structured, and Unstructured Decisions
Holistic, Heuristic and Wholistic Decisions
Trade-offs in Decision Making
The Level of Analysis in Foreign Policy Decision Making
Individual-Level Decisions
Group-level Decisions
Coalition Decision Making
Case Study: Israel's Foreign Policy Making by Coalition
Another Example of Coalition Decision Making: Iceland's Cod War, 1971-1974
The Decision Environment
Time Constraints
Information Constraints
Ambiguity
Familiarity
Dynamic Setting
Interactive Setting
Risk
Stress
Accountability
The Role of Advisory Groups
Information Search Patterns
Holistic versus Nonholistic Search
Order-Sensitive versus Order-Insensitive Search
Alternative-Based versus Dimension-Based Search
Maximizing versus Satisficing Search Patterns
Compensatory versus Noncompensatory Rule
Noncompensatory Decision Rules
Conjunctive Decision Rule (CON)
Disjunctive Decision Rule (DIS)
Elimination-by-aspect (EBA) Decision Rule
Lexicographic (LEX) Decision Rule
Conclusion
Biases in Decision Making
Case Study: The U.S. Decision to Invade Iraq In 2003 – the Effect of Cognitive Biases on Foreign Policy Making
Groupthink
Groupthink in American Foreign Policy
Beyond Groupthink
Groupthink and Multiple Advocacy
Polythink
Case Study: Polythink at Camp David, 2000
Did Polythink Lead to the Collapse of the Camp David Talks?
Group Polarization Effect
Conclusion
Models of Decision Making
The Rational Actor Model
The Rational Actor Model
Case Study: New Zealand's Defiance of the United States and ANZUS
The Expected Utility Model of War Decision Making
Opportunity Costs
Game-Theoretic Models
Prisoner's Dilemma
Chicken
Tit-for-Tat
Conclusion
Alternatives to the Rational Actor Model
Bounded Rationality and the Cybernetic Model
Bureaucratic Politics
Organizational Politics
Prospect Theory
Sunk Costs
Integrating the Rational and Cognitive Models: Poliheuristic Theory
What is Poliheuristic Decision Making?
Case Study: The Decision not to Invade Iraq in 1991 - An Application of Various Decision-Making Models to a Foreign Policy Event
Background
A Rational Actor Interpretation
A Cybernetic Explanation
A Prospect Theory Explanation
A Poliheuristic Explanation
An Organizational Politics Explanation
A Bureaucratic Politics Model
Applied Decision Analysis
A Simple Example: The Cuban Missile Crisis and the Decision Matrix
ADA: A Closer Look
Application to Decisions of Leaders of Terrorist Organizations: Bin Laden and al-Qaeda
Conclusion
Determinants of Foreign Policy Decision Making
Psychological Factors Affecting Foreign Policy Decisions
Psychological Factors
Cognitive Consistency
Evoked Set
Emotions
Images
Beliefs, Belief Systems, and Schema
Operational Code Analysis
Analogies and Learning
The “Munich Analogy” and Use of Analogies in U.S. Foreign Policy
Case Study: Analogies in U.S.-Cuban Relations, 1954-1967
The Analogies Provided by Guatemala, 1954
The Bay of Pigs
The Cuban Foco and Africa, 1965
Bolivia, 1966-1967
Leaders' Personality
Leadership Style
Types of Leaders: Crusader, Strategic, Pragmatic, and Opportunistic
Cognitive Mapping
Conclusion
International, Domestic, and Cultural Factors Influencing Foreign Policy Decision Making
International Factors
Deterrence and Arms Races
Strategic Surprise
Alliances
Regime Type of the Adversary
Domestic Factors
Diversionary Tactics
Economic Interests and Foreign Policy Decisions
The Role of Public Opinion
Electoral Cycles
The Effect of Domestic and International Factors on Foreign Policy Decisions: Two-Level Games
Case Study: The Domestic and International Underpinnings of Decision Making - the Falklands War, 1982
Diversionary Behavior
Deterrence and Misperception
Electoral Impact
Decisions on the Use of Economic Instruments of Foreign Policy
The Decision to Use Sanctions as an Instrument of Foreign Policy
The Decision to Use Aid in Foreign Policy
Negotiation and Mediation Decisions
Decisions on Foreign Policy Substitutability
Gender Differences in Decision Making
Cultural Differences in Decision Making
Conclusion
Marketing Foreign Policy
Framing, Marketing, and Media Effects on Foreign Policy Decision Making
Marketing Effects
Framing Effects
The Frame as a Political Lens
Who is Framing Whom? Framing the Public
Framing beyond the Borders
Advisory Group Framing and Manipulating
Summary
Media Effects
Case Study: The Marketing of the U.S. Invasion of Grenada, 1983
Background
The Key Decision Makers
The Marketing of the Decision
The Decision Process
Could the Process Actually Have Been a Compensatory One?
Conclusion
Conclusion
Conclusion
What Does it All Mean?: A Case Study of the U.S. Decision to Invade Iraq in 2003
Conclusion
Appendix: Foreign Policy Simulation and Exercise
References
Index

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