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Acknowledgments | |
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Introduction | |
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Why Study Foreign Policy from a Decision-Making Perspective? | |
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Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
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Why Study Foreign Policy Decision Making? | |
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The Rational and Cognitive Schools | |
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Comparative Foreign Policy | |
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Limitations of the Decision-Making Approach | |
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Plan of the Book | |
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The Decision Environment | |
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Types of Decisions and Levels of Analysis in Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
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Types of Decisions | |
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Unilateral, Negotiated, Structured, and Unstructured Decisions | |
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Holistic, Heuristic and Wholistic Decisions | |
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Trade-offs in Decision Making | |
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The Level of Analysis in Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
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Individual-Level Decisions | |
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Group-level Decisions | |
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Coalition Decision Making | |
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Case Study: Israel's Foreign Policy Making by Coalition | |
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Another Example of Coalition Decision Making: Iceland's Cod War, 1971-1974 | |
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The Decision Environment | |
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Time Constraints | |
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Information Constraints | |
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Ambiguity | |
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Familiarity | |
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Dynamic Setting | |
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Interactive Setting | |
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Risk | |
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Stress | |
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Accountability | |
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The Role of Advisory Groups | |
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Information Search Patterns | |
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Holistic versus Nonholistic Search | |
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Order-Sensitive versus Order-Insensitive Search | |
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Alternative-Based versus Dimension-Based Search | |
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Maximizing versus Satisficing Search Patterns | |
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Compensatory versus Noncompensatory Rule | |
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Noncompensatory Decision Rules | |
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Conjunctive Decision Rule (CON) | |
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Disjunctive Decision Rule (DIS) | |
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Elimination-by-aspect (EBA) Decision Rule | |
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Lexicographic (LEX) Decision Rule | |
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Conclusion | |
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Biases in Decision Making | |
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Case Study: The U.S. Decision to Invade Iraq In 2003 – the Effect of Cognitive Biases on Foreign Policy Making | |
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Groupthink | |
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Groupthink in American Foreign Policy | |
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Beyond Groupthink | |
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Groupthink and Multiple Advocacy | |
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Polythink | |
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Case Study: Polythink at Camp David, 2000 | |
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Did Polythink Lead to the Collapse of the Camp David Talks? | |
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Group Polarization Effect | |
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Conclusion | |
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Models of Decision Making | |
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The Rational Actor Model | |
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The Rational Actor Model | |
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Case Study: New Zealand's Defiance of the United States and ANZUS | |
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The Expected Utility Model of War Decision Making | |
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Opportunity Costs | |
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Game-Theoretic Models | |
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Prisoner's Dilemma | |
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Chicken | |
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Tit-for-Tat | |
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Conclusion | |
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Alternatives to the Rational Actor Model | |
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Bounded Rationality and the Cybernetic Model | |
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Bureaucratic Politics | |
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Organizational Politics | |
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Prospect Theory | |
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Sunk Costs | |
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Integrating the Rational and Cognitive Models: Poliheuristic Theory | |
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What is Poliheuristic Decision Making? | |
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Case Study: The Decision not to Invade Iraq in 1991 - An Application of Various Decision-Making Models to a Foreign Policy Event | |
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Background | |
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A Rational Actor Interpretation | |
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A Cybernetic Explanation | |
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A Prospect Theory Explanation | |
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A Poliheuristic Explanation | |
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An Organizational Politics Explanation | |
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A Bureaucratic Politics Model | |
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Applied Decision Analysis | |
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A Simple Example: The Cuban Missile Crisis and the Decision Matrix | |
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ADA: A Closer Look | |
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Application to Decisions of Leaders of Terrorist Organizations: Bin Laden and al-Qaeda | |
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Conclusion | |
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Determinants of Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
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Psychological Factors Affecting Foreign Policy Decisions | |
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Psychological Factors | |
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Cognitive Consistency | |
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Evoked Set | |
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Emotions | |
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Images | |
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Beliefs, Belief Systems, and Schema | |
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Operational Code Analysis | |
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Analogies and Learning | |
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The “Munich Analogy” and Use of Analogies in U.S. Foreign Policy | |
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Case Study: Analogies in U.S.-Cuban Relations, 1954-1967 | |
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The Analogies Provided by Guatemala, 1954 | |
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The Bay of Pigs | |
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The Cuban Foco and Africa, 1965 | |
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Bolivia, 1966-1967 | |
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Leaders' Personality | |
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Leadership Style | |
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Types of Leaders: Crusader, Strategic, Pragmatic, and Opportunistic | |
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Cognitive Mapping | |
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Conclusion | |
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International, Domestic, and Cultural Factors Influencing Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
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International Factors | |
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Deterrence and Arms Races | |
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Strategic Surprise | |
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Alliances | |
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Regime Type of the Adversary | |
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Domestic Factors | |
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Diversionary Tactics | |
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Economic Interests and Foreign Policy Decisions | |
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The Role of Public Opinion | |
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Electoral Cycles | |
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The Effect of Domestic and International Factors on Foreign Policy Decisions: Two-Level Games | |
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Case Study: The Domestic and International Underpinnings of Decision Making - the Falklands War, 1982 | |
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Diversionary Behavior | |
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Deterrence and Misperception | |
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Electoral Impact | |
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Decisions on the Use of Economic Instruments of Foreign Policy | |
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The Decision to Use Sanctions as an Instrument of Foreign Policy | |
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The Decision to Use Aid in Foreign Policy | |
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Negotiation and Mediation Decisions | |
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Decisions on Foreign Policy Substitutability | |
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Gender Differences in Decision Making | |
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Cultural Differences in Decision Making | |
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Conclusion | |
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Marketing Foreign Policy | |
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Framing, Marketing, and Media Effects on Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
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Marketing Effects | |
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Framing Effects | |
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The Frame as a Political Lens | |
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Who is Framing Whom? Framing the Public | |
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Framing beyond the Borders | |
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Advisory Group Framing and Manipulating | |
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Summary | |
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Media Effects | |
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Case Study: The Marketing of the U.S. Invasion of Grenada, 1983 | |
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Background | |
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The Key Decision Makers | |
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The Marketing of the Decision | |
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The Decision Process | |
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Could the Process Actually Have Been a Compensatory One? | |
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Conclusion | |
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Conclusion | |
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Conclusion | |
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What Does it All Mean?: A Case Study of the U.S. Decision to Invade Iraq in 2003 | |
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Conclusion | |
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Appendix: Foreign Policy Simulation and Exercise | |
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References | |
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Index | |