Judgment under Uncertainty Heuristics and Biases

ISBN-10: 0521284147
ISBN-13: 9780521284141
Edition: 1982
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Description: The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the  More...

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Book details

List price: $89.99
Copyright year: 1982
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Publication date: 4/30/1982
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 544
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.00" long x 1.25" tall
Weight: 1.694
Language: English

The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.

Daniel Kahneman received the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his pioneering work with Amos Tversky on decision-making.

Dr. Slovic studies judgment and decision processes with an emphasis on decision making under conditions of risk. His work examines fundamental issues such as the influence of affect on judgments and decisions. He also studies the factors that underlie perceptions of risk and attempts to assess the importance of these perceptions for the management of risk in society. His most recent research examines psychological factors contributing to apathy toward genocide. He no longer does classroom teaching but does advise students in their research. For further information visit Dr. Slovic's website: www.decisionresearch.org

Preface
Introduction
Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases
Representativeness
Belief in the law of small numbers
Subjective probability: a judgment of representativeness
On the psychology of presiction
Studies of representativeness
Judgments of and by representativeness
Causality and Attribution
Popular induction: information is not necessarily informative
Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty
Shortcomings in the attribution process: on the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments
Evidential impact of base rates
Availability
Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability
Egocentric biases in availability and attribution
The availability bias in social perception and interaction
The simulation heuristic
Covariation and Control
Informal covariation asssessment: data-based versus theory-based judgments
The illusion of control
Test results are what you think they are Loren
Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: problems and opportunities
Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making
Overconfidence
Overconfidence in case-study judgments
A progress report on the training of probability assessors
Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980
For those condemned to study the past: heuristics and biases in hindsight
Multistage Evaluation
Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice
Conservatism in human information processing
The best-guess hypothesis in multistage inference Charles F. Gettys, Clinton Kelly III and Cameron
Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from oneG++s memory
Corrective Procedures
The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making
The vitality of mythical numbers
Intuitive prediction: biases and corrective procedures
Debiasing Baruch Fischhoff
Improving inductive inference
Risk Perception
Facts versus fears: understanding perceived risk
Postscript
On the study of statistical intuitions
Variants of uncertainty
References
Index

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