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Preface | |

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Introduction To Decision Analysis | |

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Why Are Decisions Hard? | |

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Why Study Decision Analysis? | |

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Subjective Judgements And Decision Making | |

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The Decision Analysis Process | |

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Where Is Decision Analysis Used | |

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Where Does The Software Fit In? | |

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Where Are We Going From Here? | |

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Summary | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Modeling Decisions | |

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Elements Of Decision Problems | |

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Values And Objectives | |

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Making Money: A Special Objective | |

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Values And The Current Decision Context | |

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Decisions To Make | |

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Sequential Decisions | |

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Uncertain Events | |

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Consequences | |

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The Time Value Of Money: A Special Kind Of Trade-Off | |

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Summary | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Structuring Decisions | |

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Structuring Values | |

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Fundamental And Means Objectives | |

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Getting The Decision Complex Right | |

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Structuring Designs: Influence Diagrams | |

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Influence Diagrams And The Fundamental-Objectives Hierarchy | |

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Using Arcs To Represent Relationships | |

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Some Basic Influence Diagrams | |

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Constructing An Influence Diagram (Optional) | |

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Structuring Decisions: Decision Trees | |

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Decision Trees And Influence Diagrams Compared | |

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Decision Details: Defining Details: Defining Elements Of The Decision | |

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More Decision Details: Cash Flows And Probabilities | |

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Using Precisiontree For Structuring Decisions | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Making Choices | |

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Decision Trees And Expected Monetary Value | |

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Solving Influence Diagrams: Overview | |

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Solving Influence Diagrams: The Details (Optional) | |

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Solving Influence Diagrams: An Algorithm (Optional) | |

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Risk Profiles | |

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Dominance: An Alternative To Emv | |

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Making Decisions With Multiple Objectives | |

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Analysis: One Objective At A Time | |

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Subjective Ratings For Constructed Attribute Scales | |

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Assessing Trade-Off Weights | |

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Analysis: Expected Values And Risk Profiles For Two Objectives | |

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Decision Analysis Using Precisontree | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Sensitivity Analysis | |

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Sensitivity Analysis: A Modeling Approach | |

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Problem Identification And Structure | |

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One-Way Sensitivity Analysis | |

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Tornado Diagrams | |

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Dominance Considerations | |

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Two-Way Sensitivity Analysis | |

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Sensitivity To Probabilities | |

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Two-Way Sensitivity Analysis For Three Alternatives (Optional) | |

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Sensitivity Analysis In Action | |

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Sensitivity Analysis Using Toprank And Precisiontree | |

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Sensitivity Analysis: A Built-In Irony | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Creativity And Decision Making | |

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What Is Creativity? Theories Of Creativity | |

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Chains Of Thought | |

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Phases Of The Creative Process | |

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Blocks To Creativity | |

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Cultural And Environmental Blocks | |

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Value-Focused Thinking For Creating Alternatives | |

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Other Creativity Techniques | |

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Creating Decision Opportunities | |

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Summary | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Modeling Uncertainty | |

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Probability Basics | |

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A Little Probability Theory | |

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Venn Diagrams | |

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More Probability Formulas | |

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Uncertain Quantities | |

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Examples | |

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Decision-Analysis Software And Bayes'' Theorem | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Subjective Probability | |

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Probability: A Subjective Interpretation | |

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Assessing Discrete Probabilities | |

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Assessing Continuous Probabilities | |

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Pitfalls: Heuristics And Biases | |

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Decomposition And Probability Assessment | |

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Experts And Probability Assessment: Pulling It All Together | |

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Coherence And The Dutch Book (Optional) | |

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Constructing Distributions Using Riskview | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Theoretical Probability Models | |

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The Binomial Distribution | |

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The Poisson Distribution | |

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The Exponential Distribution | |

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The Normal Distribution | |

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The Beta Distribution | |

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Viewing Theoretical Distributions With Riskview | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Using Data | |

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Using Data To Construct Probability Distributions | |

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Using Data To Fit Theoretical Probability Models | |

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Fitting Distributions To Data | |

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Using Data To Model Relationships | |

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The Regression Approach | |

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Natural Conjugate Distributions (Optional) | |

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A Bayesian Approach To Regression Analysis (Optional) | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Monte Carlo Simulation | |

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Using Uniform Random Numbers As Building Blocks | |

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General Uniform Distributions | |

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Exponential Distributions | |

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Discrete Distributions | |

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Other Distributions | |

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Simulating Spreadsheet Models Using @Risk | |

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Simulation, Decision Trees, And Influence Diagrams | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Value Of Information | |

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Value Of Information: Some Basic Ideas | |

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Expected Value Of Perfect Information | |

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Expected Value Of Imperfect Information | |

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Value Of Information In Complex Problems | |

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Value Of Information, Sensitivity Analysis, And Structuring | |

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Value Of Information And Nonmonetary Objectives | |

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Value Of Information And Experts | |

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Calculating Evpi And Evii With Precisiontree | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Modeling Preferences | |

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Risk Attitudes | |

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Risk | |

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Risk Attitudes | |

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Investing In The Stock Market, Revisited | |

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Expected Utility, Certainty Equivalents, And Risk Premiums | |

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Keeping Terms Straight | |

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Utility Function Assessment | |

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Risk Tolerance And The Exponential Utility Function | |

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Modeling Preferences Using Precisiontree | |

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Decreasing And Constant Risk Aversion (Optional) | |

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Some Caveats | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, And Implications | |

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Axioms For Expected Utility | |

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Paradoxes | |

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Implications | |

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A Final Perspective | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Conflicting Objectives I: Fundamental Objectives And The Additive Utility Function Objectives And Attributes | |

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Trading Off Conflicting Objectives: The Basics | |

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The Additive Utility Function | |

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Assessing Individual Utility Functions | |

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Assessing Weights | |

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Keeping Concepts Straight: Certainty Versus Uncertainty | |

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An Example: Library Choices | |

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Using Software For Multiple-Objective Decisions | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models With Interactions | |

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Multiattribute Utility Functions: Direct Assessment | |

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Independence Conditions | |

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Determining Whether Independence Exists | |

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Using Independence | |

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Additive Independence | |

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Substitutes And Complements | |

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Assessing A Two-Attribute Utility Function | |

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Three Or More Attributes (Optional) | |

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When Independence Fails | |

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Multiattribute Utility In Action: Bc Hydro | |

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Summary | |

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Exercises | |

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Questions And Problems | |

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Case Studies | |

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References | |

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Epilogue | |

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Conclusion And Further Reading | |

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A Decision-Analysis Reading List | |

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Binomial Distribution: Individual Probabilities | |

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Binomial Distribution: Cumulative Probabilities | |

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Poisson Distribution: Individual Probabilities | |

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Poisson Distribution: Cumulative Probabilities | |

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Normal Distribution: Cumulative Probabilities | |

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Beta Distribution: Cumulative Probabilities | |

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Answers To Selected Exercises | |

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Author Index | |