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| Introduction | |
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| Project Management and Project Risk Management (PRM) | |
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| Operational Risk Management and PRM | |
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| Contribution and Plan of the Book | |
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| A New Look at Project Risk Management | |
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| PRM Best Practice: The PCNet Project | |
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| Background | |
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| The PCNet Project | |
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| Risk Identification | |
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| Risk Assessment and Prioritization | |
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| Impact Assessment | |
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| Risk Prioritization | |
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| Risk Monitoring and Management | |
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| Proactive Influencing of Risk Factors | |
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| Monitoring and Reporting | |
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| Managing Residual Risks | |
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| Learning and Sharing Across Projects | |
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| Learning over Time | |
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| Learning from the Residual Risks | |
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| Overall Success of the PCNet Project and Learning Applied to Other Projects | |
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| PRM as a Method and as a Mind-Set | |
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| Summary and Conclusion | |
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| The Limits of Established PRM: The Circored Project | |
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| Early Design of the Circored Technology | |
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| Cliffs' Strategic Business Idea | |
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| The Circored Technology and Early Preparations | |
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| Joint Venture and Business Plan | |
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| The Construction Phase, May 1996-April 1999 | |
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| The Startup Phase, May 1999-Summer 2000 | |
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| A Management and Design Change | |
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| Market Turmoil | |
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| The Limits of PRM: Unforeseeable Uncertainty | |
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| Summary and Conclusion | |
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| A Broader Look at Project Risk Management | |
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| Understanding the Fundamental Types of Uncertainty | |
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| Foreseeable Uncertainty and Residual Risk | |
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| Variation | |
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| Foreseeable Events | |
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| Residual Risk | |
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| Complexity | |
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| Task Complexity: Control-and-Fast-Response | |
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| Relationship Complexity: Contracts as Risk-Sharing Tools | |
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| Unknown Unknowns | |
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| Two Fundamental Approaches: Learning and Selectionism | |
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| Expanding the Toolbox: Fundamental Approaches to Project Uncertainty | |
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| Managing the Unknown | |
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| Diagnosing Complexity and Uncertainty | |
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| Diagnosing the Unforeseeable at Escend Technologies | |
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| Background | |
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| Diagnosing the Unforeseeable | |
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| Diagnosing Complexity | |
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| A Process for Diagnosing Uncertainty and Complexity at the Outset | |
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| Evolve the Complexity and Uncertainty Profile | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Learning in Projects | |
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| Learning at Escend Technologies | |
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| Planning and Firefighting | |
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| Diagnosis and Learning | |
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| First Results and Further Adjustments | |
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| Types of Project Learning | |
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| Three Types of Learning | |
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| Double-Loop Learning through Improvisation or Experimentation | |
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| The Trade-off Between Learning and Progress | |
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| Back to Escend: Drawing the Lessons | |
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| Interpreting the Escend Example | |
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| An Experimentation Process | |
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| Multiple Parallel Projects: Selectionism | |
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| Selectionism at Option International | |
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| Company Background | |
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| The Challenge: An Unpredictably Changing Market | |
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| Selectionist Trials to Find a New Business Model | |
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| Explaining the Principles of Selectionism | |
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| What Makes Selectionism Work? | |
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| In What Space Are Alternatives Developed? | |
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| How Many Parallel Trials? | |
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| When to Stop Trials? | |
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| Ensuring Selection and Commitment to the Chosen Trial | |
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| Leveraging the Benefits of the Nonselected Outcomes | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Selectionism and Learning in Projects | |
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| Selectionism and Learning at Molecular Diagnostics | |
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| Choosing and Combining Selectionism and Learning | |
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| Understanding the Cost of Darwinian Selection and Sequential Learning | |
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| Value Comparison of Darwinian Selection and Sequential Learning | |
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| Exploratory Learning and the Value of Partial Information | |
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| The PRM Contingency Planning Approach | |
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| A Combined Choice Framework | |
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| Reexamining the Circored Project with This New Framework | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Putting Selectionism and Learning into Practice | |
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| Establishing the Project Mind-Set | |
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| Open-Mindedness: Expecting the Unexpected | |
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| Choosing the Project Team with the Right Experience | |
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| Mindfulness: a Culture of Openness | |
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| Open-Mindedness among Project Partners | |
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| Project Vision, or a "Map" of Unknown Terrain | |
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| An Example: Rapid Manufacturing Technologies | |
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| A Roadmap into Unknown Terrain | |
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| Robust-Mindedness: The Ability to Cope | |
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| Sensemaking and Social Cohesion to Prevent a Team Breakdown | |
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| A Sensemaking Breakdown in Automotive Development | |
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| Robustness: Social Identity and a Map | |
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| Summary: How to Foster an Unk Unk Mind-Set | |
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| Putting the Infrastructure in Place | |
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| Managerial Systems in Project Risk Management | |
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| The Management Systems of Learning (Sub)Projects | |
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| Planning System | |
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| Monitoring System | |
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| Coordination and Information System | |
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| Evaluation and Incentive System | |
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| The Management Systems of Selectionist (Sub)Projects | |
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| Planning Systems | |
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| Monitoring Systems | |
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| Coordination and Information Systems | |
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| Evaluation and Incentive Systems | |
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| Integrating Learning and Selectionist Pieces into the Overall Project | |
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| Buffers for the Subprojects Threatened by Unk Unks | |
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| Clarify Dependence of Other Subprojects | |
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| Transfer Preliminary Information | |
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| Managing Unk Unks with Partners | |
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| The Dangers of Project Contracts | |
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| The Eurotunnel Project | |
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| Other Examples | |
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| The Limitations of and the Need to Extend Contracts | |
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| A Problem-Solving Process in the Face of Unk Unks | |
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| Choose Partners for Competence They Contribute | |
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| Clear Risk and Reward Allocation and Flexibility | |
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| Fair Process | |
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| Early-Warning Systems | |
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| Relationship and Trust Building | |
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| Summary: A Process of Partner Relationship Management | |
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| Managing Project Stakeholders | |
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| The Project of the Flying Car | |
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| Concept Generation-Three Ideas Emerge | |
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| From Concepts to Reality | |
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| Prototype Execution | |
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| Friction within the Development Team | |
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| Friction among External Partners | |
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| Selling the Project to the Organization | |
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| Management Systems for Selectionist Trials in Vol de Nuit | |
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| How Informal Stakeholders May Hold Up a Project | |
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| Strategy and Economic Reasoning | |
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| Politics and Influence: Differing Interests and Network Structure | |
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| Culture | |
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| Egos and Emotions in the Approach of Individuals | |
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| Lessons: Map the Decision Influence Levels to Sell the Project | |
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| Managing the Unknown: The Role of Senior Management | |
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| The Role of Senior Management in Novel Projects | |
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| Choosing the Project Scope | |
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| Understanding the Strategic Rewards | |
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| Shaping the Project Portfolio | |
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| Enforce Risk Reduction in the Projects in Which Novelty Is Not Critical | |
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| Building Organizational Capabilities | |
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| The Project Management Team | |
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| The Project Infrastructure Structure | |
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| Sponsoring Novel Projects | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| References | |
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| Index | |