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| Preface | |
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| Permissions and Copyrights | |
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| List of Tables | |
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| List of Figures | |
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| Risk and Safety of Engineered Systems | |
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| Risk and Its Perception and Acceptance | |
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| Overview of Risk and Safety Analysis | |
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| Two Historical Reactor Accidents | |
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| Definition of Risk | |
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| Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety | |
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| Organization of the Book | |
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| References | |
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| Probabilities of Events | |
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| Events | |
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| Event Tree Analysis and Minimal Cut Sets | |
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| Probabilities | |
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| Interpretations of Probability | |
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| Axiomatic Approach to Probabilities | |
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| Intersection of Events | |
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| Union of Events | |
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| Decomposition Rule for Probabilities | |
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| Time-Independent Versus Time-Dependent Probabilities | |
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| Time-Independent Probabilities | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Time-Independent Probability Distributions | |
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| Normal Distribution | |
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| Reliability Functions | |
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| Time-Dependent Probability Distributions | |
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| Erlangian and Exponential Distributions | |
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| Gamma Distribution | |
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| Lognormal Distribution | |
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| Weibull Distribution | |
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| Generalized �Bathtub� Distribution | |
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| Selection of a Time-Dependent Probability Distribution | |
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| Extreme-Value Probability Distributions | |
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| Probability Models for Failure Analyses | |
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| References | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Reliability Data | |
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| Estimation Theory | |
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| Moment Estimators | |
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| Maximum Likelihood Estimators | |
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| Maximum Entropy Estimators | |
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| Comparison of Estimators | |
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| Bayesian Updating of Data | |
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| Bayes Equation | |
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| Applications of the Bayes Equation | |
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| Central Limit Theorem and Hypothesis Testing | |
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| Interpretation of the Central Limit Theorem | |
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| Hypothesis Testing with the Central Limit Theorem | |
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| Reliability Quantification | |
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| Central Limit Theorem for Reliability Quantification | |
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| Engineering Approach for Reliability Quantification | |
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| X<sup>2</sup>-Distribution for Reliability Quantification | |
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| Three-Way Comparison and Concluding Remarks | |
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| References | |
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| Excercises | |
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| Reliability of Multiple-Component Systems | |
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| Series and Active-Parallel Systems | |
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| Systems with Independent Components | |
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| Systems with Redundant Components | |
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| Fail-to-Safety and Fail-to-Danger Systems | |
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| Systems with Standby Components | |
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| Decomposition Analysis | |
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| Signal Flow Graph Analysis | |
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| Cut Set Analysis | |
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| References | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Availability and Reliability of Systems with Repair | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Markov Method | |
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| Markov Governing Equations | |
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| Solution of Markov Governing Equations | |
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| An Elementary Example | |
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| Availability Analyses | |
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| Rules for Constructing Transition Rate Matrices | |
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| Availability Transition Rate Matrices | |
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| Time-Dependent Availability Examples | |
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| Steady-State Availability | |
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| Reliability Analyses | |
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| Reliability Transition Rate Matrices | |
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| Time-Dependent Reliability Examples | |
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| Mean Time to Failure | |
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| Additional Capabilities of Markov Models | |
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| Imperfect Switching Between System States | |
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| Systems with Nonconstant Hazard Rates | |
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| References | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Probabilistic Risk Assessment | |
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| Failure Modes | |
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| Classification of Failure Events | |
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| Primary, Secondary, and Command Failures | |
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| Common Cause Failures | |
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| Human Errors | |
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| Failure Data | |
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| Hardware Failures | |
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| Human Errors | |
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| Combination of Failures and Consequences | |
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| Inductive Methods | |
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| Event Tree Analysis | |
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| Fault Tree Analysis | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Fault Tree Construction | |
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| Qualitative Fault Tree Analysis | |
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| Quantitative Fault Tree Analysis | |
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| Common Cause Failures and Fault Tree Analysis | |
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| Master Logic Diagram | |
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| Uncertainty and Importance Analysis | |
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| Types of Uncertainty in PRAs | |
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| Stochastic Uncertainty Analysis | |
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| Sensitivity and Importance Analysis | |
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| References | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Computer Programs for Probabilistic Risk Assessment | |
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| Fault Tree Methodology of the SAPHIRE Code | |
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| Gate Conversion and Tree Restructuring | |
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| Simplification of the Tree | |
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| Fault Tree Expansion and Reduction | |
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| Fault and Event Tree Evaluation with the SAPHERE Code | |
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| Other Features of the SAPHIRE Code | |
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| Other PRA Codes | |
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| Binary Decision Diagram Algorithm | |
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| Basic Formulation of the BDD Algorithm | |
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| Generalization of the BDD Formulation | |
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| Zero-Suppressed BDD Algorithm and the FTREX Code | |
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| References | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Nuclear Power Plant Safety Analysis | |
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| Engineered Safety Features of Nuclear Power Plants | |
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| Pressurized Water Reactor | |
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| Boiling Water Reactor | |
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| Accident Classification and General Design Goals | |
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| Plant Operating States | |
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| Accident Classification in 10 CFR 50 | |
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| General Design Criteria and Safety Goals | |
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| Design Basis Accident: Large-Break LOCA | |
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| Typical Sequence of a Cold-Leg LBLOCA in PWR | |
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| ECCS Specifications | |
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| Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty Evaluation | |
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| Severe (Class 9) Accidents | |
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| Anticipated Transients Without Scram | |
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| History and Background of the ATWS Issue | |
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| Resolution of the ATWS Issues | |
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| Power Coefficients of Reactivity in LWRs | |
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| Radiological Source and Atmospheric Dispersion | |
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| Radiological Source Term | |
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| Atmospheric Dispersion of Radioactive Plume | |
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| Simple Models for Dose Rate Calculation | |
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| Biological Effects of Radiation Exposure | |
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| References | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Major Nuclear Power Plant Accidents and Incidents | |
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| Three Mile Island Unit 2 Accident | |
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| Sequence of the Accident-March 1979 | |
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| Implications and Follow-Up of the Accident | |
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| PWR In-Vessel Accident Progression | |
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| Core Uncovery and Heatup | |
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| Cladding Oxidation | |
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| Clad Melting and Fuel Liquefaction | |
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| Molten Core Slumping and Relocation | |
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| Vessel Breach | |
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| Chernobyl Accident | |
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| Cause and Nature of the Accident-April 1986 | |
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| Sequence of the Accident | |
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| Estimate of Energy Release in the Accident | |
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| Accident Consequences | |
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| Comparison of the TMI and Chernobyl Accidents | |
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| Fukushima Station Accident | |
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| Sequence of the Accident-March 2011 | |
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| March 2011 Perspectives on the Fukushima SBO Event | |
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| Salem Anticipated Transient Without Scram | |
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| Chronology and Cause of the Salem Incident | |
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| Implications and Follow-Up of the Salem ATWS Event | |
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| LaSalle Transient Event | |
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| LaSalle Nuclear-Coupled Density-Wave Oscillations | |
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| Simple Model for Nuclear-Coupled Density-Wave Oscillations | |
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| Implications and Follow-Up of the LaSalle Incident | |
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| Davis-Besse Potential LOCA Event | |
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| Background and Chronology of the Incident | |
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| NRC Decision to Grant DB Shutdown Delay | |
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| Causes for the Davis-Besse Incident and Follow-Up | |
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| References | |
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| Exercises | |
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| PRA Studies of Nuclear Power Plants | |
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| WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study | |
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| Assessment of Severe Accident Risks: NUREG-1150 | |
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| Background and Scope of the NUREG-1150 Study | |
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| Overview of NUREG-1150 Methodology | |
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| Accident Frequency Analysis | |
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| Accident Progression Analysis | |
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| Radionuclide Transport Analysis | |
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| Offsite Consequence Analysis | |
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| Uncertainty Analysis | |
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| Risk Integration | |
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| Additional Perspectives and Comments on NUREG-1150 | |
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| Simplified PRA in the Structure of NUREG-1150 | |
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| Description of the Simplified PRA Model | |
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| Parametric Studies and Comments on the Simplified PRA Model | |
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| References | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Passive Safety and Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems | |
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| Passive Safety Demonstration Tests at EBR-II | |
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| EBR-II Primary System and Simplified Model | |
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| Unprotected Loss-of-Flow and Loss-of-Heat-Sink Tests | |
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| Simplified Fuel Channel Analysis | |
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| Implications of EBR-II Passive Safety Demonstration Tests | |
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| Safety Characteristics of Generation III+ Plants | |
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| AP1000 Design Features | |
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| Small-Break LOCA Analysis for AP1000 | |
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| Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor | |
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| Reliability Quantification of SBWR Passive Safety Containment | |
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| Generation IV Nuclear Power Plants | |
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| Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor | |
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| Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accidents for Fast Reactors | |
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| VHTR and Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table | |
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| References | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Risk-Infoimed Regulations and Reliability-Centered Maintenance | |
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| Risk Measures for Nuclear Plant Regulations | |
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| Principles of Risk-Informed Regulations and Licensing | |
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| Uncertainties in Risk-Informed Decision Making | |
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| Other Initiatives in Risk-Informed Regulations | |
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| Reliability-Centered Maintenance | |
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| Optimization Strategy for Preventive Maintenance | |
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| Reliability-Centered Maintenance Framework | |
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| Cost-Benefit Considerations | |
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| References | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Dynamic Event Tree Analysis | |
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| Basic Features of Dynamic Event Tree Analysis | |
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| Continuous Event Tree Formulation | |
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| Derivation of the Stochastic Balance Equation | |
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| Integral Form of the Stochastic Balance Equation | |
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| Numerical Solution of the Stochastic Balance Equation | |
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| Cell-to-Cell Mapping for Parameter Estimation | |
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| Derivation of the Bayesian Recursive Relationship | |
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| CCM Technique for Dynamic Event Tree Construction | |
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| Diagnosis of Component Degradations | |
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| Bayesian Framework for Component Diagnostics | |
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| Implementation of the Probabilistic Diagnostic Algorithm | |
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| References | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Reactor Radiological Sources | |
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| Fission Product Inventory and Decay Heat | |
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| Health Effects of Radiation Exposure | |
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| References | |
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| Some Special Mathematical Functions | |
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| Gamma Function | |
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| Error Function | |
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| References | |
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| Some Failure Rate Data | |
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| Linear Kalman Filter Algorithm | |
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| References | |
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| Answers to Selected Exercises | |
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| Index | |