Sixth Sense Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios

ISBN-10: 0470844914

ISBN-13: 9780470844915

Edition: 2002

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Description: The authors help managers move beyond the idea that the future of business will resemble the past and allows them to use scenarios to imagine multiple perspectives.

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Book details

List price: $60.00
Copyright year: 2002
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
Publication date: 8/16/2002
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 320
Size: 6.25" wide x 9.25" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.298
Language: English

Kees van der Heijden is an Associate Fellow of Templeton College, University of Oxford, and a Visiting Professor at the Netherlands Business School, Nijenrode University. He is also Emeritus Professor of the University of Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, Glasgow, where he has taught General and Strategic Management since 1990. In addition, he is a co-founder of the Global Business Network. Before joining Strathclyde, he was in charge of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, as head of the Group's Business Environment Division. This involved advising top management on strategy, as well as development of the process of scenario planning in which Shell has taken a worldwide leading role. He specializes in scenario planning, strategic change and institutional strategic management processes, and has consulted widely in these areas.

About the Authors
Introduction
The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future
How this Book is Organized
Preparing for the Future
Understanding Organizational Success
Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems
Success Stories
Barriers to Strategic Success
Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning
How Managers Think about the Future
Understanding Management Thinking
Biases in thinking
The Limitations of Judgemental Forecasting
Decision Avoidance
Overcoming Strategic Inertia: the Potential Benefits of Scenario Planning
Summary: Overcoming Thinking Flaws with Scenario Planning
How Organizations Think about the Future
Flaws in Organizational Thinking
Limitations Imposed by Identity
Organizational Lock-in
Behavioural flaws
Overcoming the Pathologies of Organizational Life
Summary: How Organizations Think About the Future
The Impact of Culture and Cultural Assumptions on Strategy
Understanding the Impact of Cultural Issues
Defining Culture for Pragmatic Purposes
National Cultural Differences and the Role of Scenario Thinking
Differences in Organizational Cultures
Differences in Professional Cultures Within Organizations
Moving Beyond Cultural Preconceptions and Stereotypes
The Application of Scenario Thinking to Cultural Understanding
Shaping the Future: The Emergence of Modern Scenario Techniques
Scenario Planning: the Human Dimension
Scenario Thinking and War Games
The Era of Possibility: the Makeable Post-war World
Challenging Established Thinking: the Development of Scenarios in the 1970s
Royal Dutch/Shell and the Problem of Predictability
The Development of Scenarios and Strategy During the 1980s
The 1990s: Scenario Planning and Organizational Learning
Summary: the Benefits of Scenario Planning
Developing the Skills for Long-Term Survival and Success: Principles of the Scenario Process
The Need for a Scenario Process
Scenarios and Scenario-based Organizational Learning
How Scenarios Tackle the Problems of Organizational Thinking
Organizational Learning
Summary: Developing the Skills of Survival
Scenario Planning in the Organizational Context
Introducing the Scenario Method
Scenarios for the Future of e-Government and the Impact of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT)
Structuring the Scenario Process
Exploring the Scenario Context
Developing the Scenarios
Stakeholder Analysis
Systems Thinking
Impacting Organizational Thinking and Action
Summary: Effective Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning: Taking Charge of the Future
The Energetic Problem Solver
Making Sense of a Puzzling Situation
Developing Strategy
Improving Organizational Anticipation
Building an Adaptive Learning Organization
Summary
Rethinking the Future--the Value of Scenarios in Developing Competitive Advantage
Developing The Sixth Sense
Glossary
References
Index
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