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| About the Authors | |
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| Introduction | |
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| The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future | |
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| How this Book is Organized | |
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| Preparing for the Future | |
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| Understanding Organizational Success | |
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| Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems | |
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| Success Stories | |
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| Barriers to Strategic Success | |
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| Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning | |
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| How Managers Think about the Future | |
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| Understanding Management Thinking | |
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| Biases in thinking | |
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| The Limitations of Judgemental Forecasting | |
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| Decision Avoidance | |
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| Overcoming Strategic Inertia: the Potential Benefits of Scenario Planning | |
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| Summary: Overcoming Thinking Flaws with Scenario Planning | |
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| How Organizations Think about the Future | |
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| Flaws in Organizational Thinking | |
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| Limitations Imposed by Identity | |
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| Organizational Lock-in | |
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| Behavioural flaws | |
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| Overcoming the Pathologies of Organizational Life | |
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| Summary: How Organizations Think About the Future | |
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| The Impact of Culture and Cultural Assumptions on Strategy | |
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| Understanding the Impact of Cultural Issues | |
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| Defining Culture for Pragmatic Purposes | |
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| National Cultural Differences and the Role of Scenario Thinking | |
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| Differences in Organizational Cultures | |
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| Differences in Professional Cultures Within Organizations | |
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| Moving Beyond Cultural Preconceptions and Stereotypes | |
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| The Application of Scenario Thinking to Cultural Understanding | |
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| Shaping the Future: The Emergence of Modern Scenario Techniques | |
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| Scenario Planning: the Human Dimension | |
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| Scenario Thinking and War Games | |
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| The Era of Possibility: the Makeable Post-war World | |
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| Challenging Established Thinking: the Development of Scenarios in the 1970s | |
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| Royal Dutch/Shell and the Problem of Predictability | |
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| The Development of Scenarios and Strategy During the 1980s | |
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| The 1990s: Scenario Planning and Organizational Learning | |
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| Summary: the Benefits of Scenario Planning | |
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| Developing the Skills for Long-Term Survival and Success: Principles of the Scenario Process | |
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| The Need for a Scenario Process | |
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| Scenarios and Scenario-based Organizational Learning | |
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| How Scenarios Tackle the Problems of Organizational Thinking | |
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| Organizational Learning | |
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| Summary: Developing the Skills of Survival | |
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| Scenario Planning in the Organizational Context | |
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| Introducing the Scenario Method | |
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| Scenarios for the Future of e-Government and the Impact of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) | |
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| Structuring the Scenario Process | |
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| Exploring the Scenario Context | |
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| Developing the Scenarios | |
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| Stakeholder Analysis | |
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| Systems Thinking | |
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| Impacting Organizational Thinking and Action | |
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| Summary: Effective Scenario Planning | |
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| Scenario Planning: Taking Charge of the Future | |
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| The Energetic Problem Solver | |
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| Making Sense of a Puzzling Situation | |
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| Developing Strategy | |
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| Improving Organizational Anticipation | |
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| Building an Adaptive Learning Organization | |
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| Summary | |
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| Rethinking the Future--the Value of Scenarios in Developing Competitive Advantage | |
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| Developing The Sixth Sense | |
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| Glossary | |
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| References | |
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| Index | |