Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management

ISBN-10: 0470282371
ISBN-13: 9780470282373
Edition: 3rd 2009
Authors: Yacov Y. Haimes
List price: $183.00 Buy it from $148.77
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Description: Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, 3/e, describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, management, and public policy. Unlike any other  More...

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Book details

List price: $183.00
Edition: 3rd
Copyright year: 2009
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
Publication date: 1/7/2009
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 1040
Size: 6.25" wide x 9.25" long x 2.00" tall
Weight: 3.190
Language: English

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, 3/e, describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work integrates the art and science of risk analysis. It shows clearly how to quantify risk and construct probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, political, and cultural considerations. Presenting basic concepts as well as advanced material, avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, and incorporating numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion. The third edition will be updated as follows: 1. A CD containing about a dozen new solved risk-based problems *for each chapter* will be added to the third edition (the total may exceed 200 solved problems, plus six or more text-related case studies published in a variety of journals. 2. Chapters 1 and 2 will be restructured 3. An adaptive multiplayer HHM-game will be added to Chapter 3 4. Chapters 4-7 will be updated 5. Chapter 8 (risk of extreme events) will be updated with the addition of case studies on the 9-11attack and hurricane Katrina, the example problems will be improved 6. Chapter 9 will be updated with added examples 7. Chapter 10 will be improved by adding excerpts from a paper on the application of multiobjective decision trees to multiobjective risk impact analysis) 8. Chapters 11-16 will be updated 9. Chapter 17 on terrorism will be completely restructured and expanded 10. Chapter 18, the case study chapter, will be expanded The Appendices will be updated An accompanying web site will offer 200 example problems and case studies

Preface
Acknowledgments
Fundamentals Of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management.
The Art and Science of Systems and Risk Analysis.
Introduction
Systems Engineering
Risk Assessment and Management
Concept Road Map: The Farmer's Dilemma
Epilogue
References
The Role of Modeling in the Risk Analysis Process.
Introduction
The Risk Assessment and Management Process
Information, Intelligence, and Models
The Building Blocks of Mathematical Models
The Farmer's Dilemma Revisited
Example Problems
References
Identifying Risk Through Hierarchical Holographic Modeling.
Hierarchical Aspects
Hierarchical Overlapping Coordination
Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM)
Hierarchical Holographic Modeling and the Theory of Scenario Structuring
Adaptive Multiplayer HHM (AMP-HHM) Game
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.10
3.11
3.12
3.13
References
Decision Analysis.
Introduction
Decision Rules Under Uncertainty
Decision Trees
Decision Matrix
The Fractile Method
Triangular Distribution
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.10
References
Multiobjective Trade-Off Analysis.
Introduction
Examples of Multiple Environmental Objectives
The Surrogate Worth Trade-off (SWT) Method
Characterizing a Proper Noninferior Solution
The Surrogate Worth Trade-off Method and the Utility Function Approach
Example Problems
Summary
References
Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis.
Introduction
Sensitivity, Responsivity, Stability, and Irreversibility
Uncertainties Due to Errors in Modeling
Characterization of Modeling Errors
Uncertainty Taxonomy
The Uncertainty Sensitivity Index Method
Formulation of the Multiobjective Optimization Problem
A Robust Algorithm of the USIM
Integration of the USIM with Parameter Optimization at the Design Stage
Conclusions
References
Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management
Introduction
Past Efforts in Risk Filtering and Ranking
Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management A Methodological Framework
7.4
7.5
References
Advances In Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management.
Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of Expected Value.
Introduction
Risk of Extreme Events
The Fallacy of the Expected Value
The Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method
General Formulation of the PMRM
Summary of the PMRM
Illustrative Example
Analysis of Dam Failure and Extreme Floods Through the PMRM
Example Problems
Summary
References
Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis.
Introduction
Methodological Approach
Differences Between Single- and Multiple-Objective Decision Trees
Summary
Example Problems
References
Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method.
Introduction
Impact Analysis
The Multiobjective, Multistage Impact Analysis Method: An Overview
Combining the PMRM and the MMIAM
Relating Multiobjective Decision Trees to the Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method
10.6
10.7
References
Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM.
A Review of the Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method
Statistics of Extremes
Incorporating the Statistics of Extremes into the PMRM
Sensitivity Analysis of the Approximation of f<sub>4</sub> (�)
Generalized Quantification of Risk of Extreme Events
Summary
Example Problems
References
Bayesian Analysis and the Prediction of Chemical Carcinogenicity.
Background
Calculating Sensitivity and Specificity
Battery Selection
Determining the Performance (Predictivity and Selectivity) of the Test Battery
Trade-offs and Policy Analysis
References
Fault Trees.
Introduction
Basic Fault-Tree Analysis
Reliability and Fault-Tree Analysis
Minimal Cut Sets
The Distribution Analyzer and Risk Evaluator Using Fault Trees
Extreme Events in Fault-Tree Analysis
An Example Problem Based on a Case Study
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA); Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)
Event Trees.
Example Problems
References
Multiobjective Statistical Method.
Introduction
Mathematical Formulation of the Interior Drainage Problem
Formulation of the Optimization Problem
The Multiobjective Statistical Method (MSM): Step-by-Step
The Surrogate Worth Trade-off (SWT) Method
Multiple Objectives
Applying the MSM
Example Problems
References
Principles and Guidelines for Project Risk Management.
Introduction
Definitions and Principles of Project Risk Management
Project Risk Management Methods
Aircraft Development Example
Quantitative Risk Assessment and Management of Software Acquisition
Critical Factors That Affect Software Nontechnical Risk
Basis for Variances in Cost Estimation
Discrete Dynamic Modeling
Summary
References
Applying Risk Analysis to Space Missions.
Introduction
Overview of Selected Space Missions
Risk Analysis Examples for Selected Space Missions
Hierarchical Holographic Modeling
Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management
Epilogue
References
Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Terrorism.
Overview
On the Definition of Vulnerabilities in Measuring Risks to Infrastructures
Risk-Based Methodology for Scenario Tracking, Intelligence Gathering, and Analysis for Countering Terrorism
Homeland Security Preparedness: Balancing Protection with Resilience in Emergent Systems
Risk of Terrorism to Information Technology and to Critical Interdependent Infrastructures
References
Inoperability Input-Output Model and Its Derivatives for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors.
Overview
Background: The Original Leontief I/O Model
Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM)
Regimes of Recovery
Supporting Databases for IIM Analysis
National and Regional Databases for IIM Analysis
Regional Input-Output Multiplier System (RIMS II)
Development of IIM and Its Derivatives
The Dynamic IIM
Practical Uses of IIM
Uncertainty IIM
Example Problems
Summary
References
Case Studies.
A Risk-Based Input-Output Methodology for Measuring the Effects of the August 2003 Northeast Blackout
Systemic Valuation of Strategic Preparedness Through Applying the Inoperability Input-Output Model with Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina
Ex Post Analysis Using the IIM of the September 11, 2001 Attack on the US
Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat
The Statistics of Extreme Events and 6-Sigma Capability
References
Appendix: Optimization Techniques.
Introduction to Modeling and Optimization
Classical Unconstrained Optimization Problems
Classical Equality Constraint Problem
Newton-Raphson Method
Linear Programming
Dynamic Programming
Generalized Nonlinear Programming
Multiobjective Decision Trees
Derivation of the Expected Value of a Log-normal Distribution
Derivation of the Conditional Expected Value of a Log-normal Distribution
Triangular Distribution: Unconditional and Conditional Expected Values
Standard Normal Distribution Probability Table
References
Index

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