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| Acknowledgements | |
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| Maps | |
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| Introduction: Assessing the future of Iraq | |
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| A sovereign Iraq | |
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| Measuring stability after the invasion | |
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| Assessing the causes of instability and violence | |
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| The regional and global significance of Iraq | |
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| Iraq at the crossroads | |
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| Understanding the drivers of violence in Iraq | |
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| Socio-cultural factors in Iraq's descent into civil war | |
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| The weakness of the Iraqi state after 2003 | |
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| Elite bargains and post-invasion politics in Iraq | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| From insurgency to civil war: the purveyors of violence in Iraq | |
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| The cycle of violence: 2003-07 | |
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| The perpetrators of violence | |
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| The insurgents | |
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| Violence and the victor's peace in Iraq | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Iraq, US policy and the rebirth of counter-insurgency doctrine | |
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| The US policy in Iraq before counter-insurgency | |
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| The rediscovery of counter-insurgency doctrine | |
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| The application of counter-insurgency doctrine to Iraq | |
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| The 'Anbar Awakening', Sons of Iraq and the 'tribal revolt' | |
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| Moqtada al-Sadr, the targeting of the 'special groups' and the rebranding of Jaish al-Mahdi | |
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| The theory and practice of classic counter-insurgency in Iraq | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Rebuilding the civil and military capacity of the Iraqi state | |
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| The rebuilding of Iraq's armed forces | |
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| The Iraqi security services after US withdrawal | |
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| Sectarian politics and the security services | |
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| The increasing dominance of Nuri al-Maliki | |
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| The civilian capacity of the Iraqi state | |
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| Rebuilding the Iraqi state after 2003 | |
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| The Iraqi state today | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| The politics of Iraq: the exclusive elite bargain and the rise of a new authoritarianism | |
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| Attempting to break Iraq's exclusive elite bargain | |
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| The reassertion of the exclusive elite pact in 2010 | |
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| The irresistible rise of Maliki | |
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| Fighting against Maliki: attempting to unseat the new strongman | |
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| Maliki's governing strategy and the Arab Spring | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| From bully to target: Iraq's changing role in the Middle East | |
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| US influence on Iraq | |
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| Iraq and Iran | |
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| Iraq and Turkey | |
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| Iraq and the Arab Gulf states | |
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| Iraq and Syria | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| The drivers of violence and the threat of renewed civil war | |
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| The thwarting of democracy and the slide to authoritarianism | |
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| A neutered regional power | |
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| Humanitarian intervention after the invasion of Iraq | |
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| Appendix: Summary of the 30 January 2005 Iraqi legislative election results | |