Iraq - From War to a New Authoritarianism

ISBN-10: 0415834856
ISBN-13: 9780415834858
Edition: 2013
Authors: Toby Dodge
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Description: Iraq recovered its full sovereignty at the end of 2011, with the departure of all US military forces. The 2003 invasion was undertaken to dismantle a regime that had long threatened its own population and regional peace, as well as to establish a  More...

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Book details

Copyright year: 2013
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Group
Publication date: 1/16/2013
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 217
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.25" long x 0.75" tall
Weight: 0.748
Language: English

Iraq recovered its full sovereignty at the end of 2011, with the departure of all US military forces. The 2003 invasion was undertaken to dismantle a regime that had long threatened its own population and regional peace, as well as to establish a stable, democratic state in the heart of the Middle East. This Adelphi looks at the legacy of that intervention and subsequent state-building efforts. It analyses the evolution of the insurgency, the descent into full-scale civil war and the implementation of the ‘surge’ as a counter-insurgency strategy. It goes on to examine US and Iraqi efforts to reconstruct the state’s military and civilian capacity. By developing a clear understanding of the current situation in Iraq, this book seeks to answer three questions that are central to the country’s future. Will it continue to suffer high levels of violence or even slide back into a vicious civil war? Will Iraq continue on a democratic path, as exemplified by the three competitive national elections held since 2005? And does the new Iraq pose a threat to its neighbours?

Acknowledgements
Maps
Introduction: Assessing the future of Iraq
A sovereign Iraq
Measuring stability after the invasion
Assessing the causes of instability and violence
The regional and global significance of Iraq
Iraq at the crossroads
Understanding the drivers of violence in Iraq
Socio-cultural factors in Iraq's descent into civil war
The weakness of the Iraqi state after 2003
Elite bargains and post-invasion politics in Iraq
Conclusion
From insurgency to civil war: the purveyors of violence in Iraq
The cycle of violence: 2003-07
The perpetrators of violence
The insurgents
Violence and the victor's peace in Iraq
Conclusion
Iraq, US policy and the rebirth of counter-insurgency doctrine
The US policy in Iraq before counter-insurgency
The rediscovery of counter-insurgency doctrine
The application of counter-insurgency doctrine to Iraq
The 'Anbar Awakening', Sons of Iraq and the 'tribal revolt'
Moqtada al-Sadr, the targeting of the 'special groups' and the rebranding of Jaish al-Mahdi
The theory and practice of classic counter-insurgency in Iraq
Conclusion
Rebuilding the civil and military capacity of the Iraqi state
The rebuilding of Iraq's armed forces
The Iraqi security services after US withdrawal
Sectarian politics and the security services
The increasing dominance of Nuri al-Maliki
The civilian capacity of the Iraqi state
Rebuilding the Iraqi state after 2003
The Iraqi state today
Conclusion
The politics of Iraq: the exclusive elite bargain and the rise of a new authoritarianism
Attempting to break Iraq's exclusive elite bargain
The reassertion of the exclusive elite pact in 2010
The irresistible rise of Maliki
Fighting against Maliki: attempting to unseat the new strongman
Maliki's governing strategy and the Arab Spring
Conclusion
From bully to target: Iraq's changing role in the Middle East
US influence on Iraq
Iraq and Iran
Iraq and Turkey
Iraq and the Arab Gulf states
Iraq and Syria
Conclusion
Conclusion
The drivers of violence and the threat of renewed civil war
The thwarting of democracy and the slide to authoritarianism
A neutered regional power
Humanitarian intervention after the invasion of Iraq
Appendix: Summary of the 30 January 2005 Iraqi legislative election results

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