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| Preface | |
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| International Systems: Vicious Circles and Virtuous Circles | |
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| The Modern State System | |
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| Anarchy as a Potentially Vicious Circle | |
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| The Creation of Virtuous Circles | |
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| Background and Legacy of the European Achievement | |
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| A Complex System of Interactions Supporting Peace | |
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| The Kantian Triangle | |
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| From Democratic Peace to Kantian Peace | |
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| Democracy as the Focus | |
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| Two Dimensions: Pairs of States and Individual States | |
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| Theories of the Dyadic Democratic Peace: Culture or Structure? | |
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| The Convergence and Expansion of Theories | |
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| Common Interests | |
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| Interventions | |
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| Conflict Management | |
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| Why Do Democracies Win the Wars They Fight? | |
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| The Domestic Conflict-Foreign Conflict Puzzle | |
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| Civil Wars | |
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| Beyond the "Democratic" Peace | |
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| Democracy and Political Integration | |
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| Legitimacy, Liberalism, and Society | |
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| Democracy Reduces Conflict | |
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| The Epidemiology of War and Peace | |
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| What Causes or Constrains States' Use of Force? | |
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| A Database for Epidemiological Studies of Interstate Conflict | |
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| Militarized Disputes | |
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| Influences and Constraints: Democracy | |
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| Realist Constraints | |
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| Analyzing the Global Experience of a Century | |
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| Was the Effect of Democracy Different in Different Periods? | |
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| Peaceful Autocracies? | |
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| Are Political Transitions Dangerous? | |
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| More Democracy and More Peace | |
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| Both Democracy and Economic Interdependence Reduce Conflict | |
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| The Liberal Peace: Classical Perspectives and Recent Research | |
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| Analytical Problems | |
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| Testing the Effects of Trade | |
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| Trade Does Reduce Conflict | |
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| Are Open Economies More Pacific? | |
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| Economic Growth and Conflict | |
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| Economic Interdependence and Peace | |
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| International Organizations Also Reduce Conflict | |
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| Networks of Intergovernmental Organizations | |
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| Why and How IGOs Might Matter | |
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| Indirect Effects and Reverse Causality | |
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| The Analysis of Dense Networks | |
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| International Organizations Also Reduce Disputes | |
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| World War I as an Example | |
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| Systemic Changes over Time | |
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| Or Is It Hegemony That Reduces Violence? | |
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| Coercion or Persuasion? | |
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| The Three Kantian Legs | |
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| Virtuous Circles and Indirect Influences | |
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| Two Questions We Cannot Settle Here | |
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| United Nations Peace-Building through Democracy | |
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| The Effort in Mozambique | |
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| Do IGOs Promote Peace, or Vice Versa? | |
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| Who Trades with Whom? | |
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| Interests, Preferences, and Alliances | |
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| Clash of Civilizations, or Realism and Liberalism Deja Vu? | |
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| Civilizations and Identity | |
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| Exploring the Effects of Civilizational Differences | |
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| Designing a Simple Test | |
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| Civilizational, Realist, and Liberal Influences on Conflict | |
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| What Are the Patterns of Conflict within and between Particular Civilizations? | |
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| Do Regional Hegemonies Reduce the Likelihood of Conflict? | |
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| Does the Clash of Civilizations Grow over Time? | |
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| Are Civilizations the Prime Mover? | |
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| The Insignificance of Civilizational Differences | |
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| The Kantian Peace in the Twenty-First Century | |
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| The Evidence for a Kantian Peace | |
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| Incorporating Russia and China into the Kantian System | |
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| Russia's Options | |
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| How to Avoid the Dangers of a Russia-China Alliance | |
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| Why Not Bring Russia into NATO? | |
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| How Would the Chinese React? | |
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| The False Hope of Hegemony | |
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| Appendix: Methods and Tables | |
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| References | |
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| Index | |