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| Preface | |
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| Acknowledgments from Earlier Editions | |
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| Stocks and Their Value | |
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| Firm Foundations and Castles in the Air | |
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| What Is a Random Walk? | |
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| Investing as a Way of Life Today | |
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| Investing in Theory | |
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| The Firm-Foundation Theory | |
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| The Castle-in-the-Air Theory | |
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| How the Random Walk Is to Be Conducted | |
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| The Madness of Crowds | |
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| The Tulip-Bulb Craze | |
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| The South Sea Bubble | |
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| Wall Street Lays an Egg | |
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| An Afterword | |
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| Stock Valuation from the Sixties through the Nineties | |
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| The Sanity of Institutions | |
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| The Soaring Sixties | |
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| The New "New Era": The Growth-Stock/New-Issue Craze | |
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| Synergy Generates Energy: The Conglomerate Boom | |
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| Performance Comes to the Market: The Bubble in Concept Stocks | |
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| The Sour Seventies | |
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| The Nifty Fifty | |
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| The Roaring Eighties | |
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| The Triumphant Return of New Issues | |
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| Concepts Conquer Again: The Biotechnology Bubble | |
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| ZZZZ Best Bubble of All | |
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| What Does It All Mean? | |
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| The Nervy Nineties | |
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| The Japanese Yen for Land and Stocks | |
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| The Biggest Bubble of All: Surfing on the Internet | |
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| How Bubbles Arise | |
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| A Broad-Scale High-Tech Bubble | |
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| An Unprecedented New-Issue Craze | |
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| TheGlobe.com | |
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| Security Analysts $peak Up | |
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| New Valuation Metrics | |
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| The Writes of the Media | |
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| Fraud Slithers In and Strangles the Market | |
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| Should We Have Known the Dangers? | |
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| A Final Word | |
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| The Firm-Foundation Theory of Stock Prices | |
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| The "Fundamental" Determinants of Stock Prices | |
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| Two Important Caveats | |
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| Testing the Rules | |
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| One More Caveat | |
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| What's Left of the Firm Foundation? | |
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| How the Pros Play the Biggest Game in Town | |
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| Technical and Fundamental Analysis | |
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| Technical versus Fundamental Analysis | |
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| What Can Charts Tell You? | |
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| The Rationale for the Charting Method | |
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| Why Might Charting Fail to Work? | |
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| From Chartist to Technician | |
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| The Technique of Fundamental Analysis | |
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| Why Might Fundamental Analysis Fail to Work? | |
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| Using Fundamental and Technical Analysis Together | |
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| Technical Analysis and the Random-Walk Theory | |
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| Holes in Their Shoes and Ambiguity in Their Forecasts | |
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| Is There Momentum in the Stock Market? | |
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| Just What Exactly Is a Random Walk? | |
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| Some More Elaborate Technical Systems | |
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| The Filter System | |
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| The Dow Theory | |
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| The Relative-Strength System | |
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| Price-Volume Systems | |
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| Reading Chart Patterns | |
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| Randomness Is Hard to Accept | |
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| A Gaggle of Other Technical Theories to Help You Lose Money | |
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| The Hemline Indicator | |
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| The Super Bowl Indicator | |
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| The Odd-Lot Theory | |
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| A Few More Systems | |
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| Technical Market Gurus | |
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| Why Are Technicians Still Hired? | |
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| Appraising the Counterattack | |
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| Implications for Investors | |
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| How Good Is Fundamental Analysis? | |
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| The Views from Wall Street and Academia | |
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| Are Security Analysts Fundamentally Clairvoyant? | |
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| Why the Crystal Ball Is Clouded | |
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| The Influence of Random Events | |
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| The Production of Dubious Reported Earnings through "Creative" Accounting Procedures | |
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| The Basic Incompetence of Many of the Analysts Themselves | |
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| The Loss of the Best Analysts to the Sales Desk or to Portfolio Management | |
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| The Conflicts of Interest between Research and Investment Banking Departments | |
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| Do Security Analysts Pick Winners?--The Performance of the Mutual Funds | |
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| Can Any Fundamental System Pick Winners? | |
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| The Verdict on Market Timing | |
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| The Semi-strong and Strong Forms of the Efficient-Market Theory | |
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| The Middle of the Road: A Personal Viewpoint | |
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| The New Investment Technology | |
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| A New Walking Shoe: Modern Portfolio Theory | |
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| The Role of Risk | |
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| Defining Risk: The Dispersion of Returns | |
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| Illustration: Expected Return and Variance Measures of Reward and Risk | |
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| Documenting Risk: A Long-Run Study | |
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| Reducing Risk: Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) | |
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| Diversification in Practice | |
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| Reaping Reward by Increasing Risk | |
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| Beta and Systematic Risk | |
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| The Capital-Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) | |
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| Let's Look at the Record | |
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| An Appraisal of the Evidence | |
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| The Quant Quest for Better Measures of Risk: Arbitrage Pricing Theory | |
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| A Summing Up | |
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| Potshots at the Efficient-Market Theory and Why They Miss | |
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| What Do We Mean by Saying Markets Are Efficient? | |
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| Potshots That Completely Miss the Target | |
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| Dogs of the Dow | |
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| January Effect | |
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| "Thank God It's Monday Afternoon" Pattern | |
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| Hot News Response | |
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| Why the Aim Is So Bad | |
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| Potshots That Get Close but Still Miss the Target | |
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| The Trend Is Your Friend (Otherwise Known as Short-Term Momentum) | |
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| The Dividend Jackpot Approach | |
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| The Initial P/E Predictor | |
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| The "Back We Go Again" Strategy (Otherwise Known as Long-Run Return Reversals) | |
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| The Smaller Is Better Effect | |
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| The "Value Will Win" Record | |
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| Stocks with Low Price-Earnings Multiples Outperform Those with High Multiples | |
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| Stocks That Sell at Low Multiples of Their Book Values Tend to Produce Higher Subsequent Returns | |
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| But Does "Value" Really Trump Growth on a Consistent Basis? | |
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| Why Even Close Shots Miss | |
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| And the Winner Is ... | |
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| The Performance of Professional Investors | |
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| A Summing Up | |
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| A Practical Guide for Random Walkers and Other Investors | |
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| A Fitness Manual for Random Walkers | |
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| Cover Thyself with Protection | |
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| Know Your Investment Objectives | |
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| Dodge Uncle Sam Whenever You Can | |
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| Pension Plans and IRAs | |
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| Keogh Plans | |
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| Roth IRAs | |
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| Tax-Deferred Annuities | |
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| Saving for College: As Easy as 529 | |
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| Be Competitive--Let the Yield on Your Cash Reserve Keep Pace with Inflation | |
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| Money-Market Mutual Funds | |
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| Money-Market Deposit Accounts | |
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| Bank Certificates | |
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| Tax-Exempt Money-Market Funds | |
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| Investigate a Promenade through Bond Country | |
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| Zero-Coupon Bonds Can Generate Large Future Returns | |
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| No-Load Bond Funds Are Appropriate Vehicles for Individual Investors | |
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| Tax-Exempt Bonds Are Useful for High-Bracket Investors | |
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| Hot TIPS: Inflation-Indexed Bonds | |
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| Should You Be a Bond-Market Junkie? | |
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| Begin Your Walk at Your Own Home--Renting Leads to Flabby Investment Muscles | |
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| Beef Up with Real Estate Investment Trusts | |
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| Tiptoe through the Fields of Gold, Collectibles, and Other Investments | |
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| Remember That Commission Costs Are Not Random; Some Are Cheaper than Others | |
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| Diversify Your Investment Steps | |
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| A Final Checkup | |
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| Handicapping the Financial Race: A Primer in Understanding and Projecting Returns from Stocks and Bonds | |
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| What Determines the Returns from Stocks and Bonds? | |
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| Three Eras of Financial Market Returns | |
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| The Age of Comfort | |
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| The Age of Angst | |
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| The Age of Exuberance | |
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| The Age of the Millennium | |
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| A Life-Cycle Guide to Investing | |
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| Four Asset-Allocation Principles | |
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| Risk and Reward Are Related | |
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| Your Actual Risk in Stock and Bond Investing Depends on the Length of Time You Hold Your Investment | |
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| Dollar-Cost Averaging Can Reduce the Risks of Investing in Stocks and Bonds | |
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| Distinguishing between Your Attitude toward and Your Capacity for Risk | |
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| Three Guidelines to Tailoring a Life-Cycle Investment Plan | |
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| Specific Needs Require Dedicated Specific Assets | |
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| Recognize Your Tolerance for Risk | |
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| Persistent Saving in Regular Amounts, No Matter How Small, Pays Off | |
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| The Life-Cycle Investment Guide | |
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| Three Giant Steps Down Wall Street | |
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| The No-Brainer Step: Investing in Index Funds | |
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| The Index-Fund Solution: A Summary | |
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| A Broader Definition of Indexing | |
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| A Specific Index-Fund Portfolio | |
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| The Tax-Managed Index Fund | |
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| The Do-It-Yourself Step: Potentially Useful Stock-Picking Rules | |
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| Confine stock purchases to companies that appear able to sustain above-average earnings growth for at least five years | |
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| Never pay more for a stock than can reasonably be justified by a firm foundation of value | |
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| It helps to buy stocks with the kinds of stories of anticipated growth on which investors can build castles in the air | |
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| Trade as little as possible | |
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| The Substitute-Player Step: Hiring a Professional Wall Street Walker | |
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| The Morningstar Mutual-Fund Information Service | |
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| A Primer on Mutual-Fund Costs | |
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| Loading Fees | |
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| Expense Charges | |
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| Comparing Mutual-Fund Costs | |
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| The Malkiel Step | |
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| A Paradox | |
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| Some Last Reflections on Our Walk | |
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| Supplement: How Pork Bellies Acquired an Ivy League Suit: A Primer on Derivatives | |
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| Appendix to Supplement: What Determines Prices in the Futures and Options Markets? | |
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| A Random Walker's Address Book and Reference Guide to Mutual Funds | |
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| Index | |