Random Walk down Wall Street

ISBN-10: 0393325350
ISBN-13: 9780393325355
Edition: 8th 2003 (Revised)
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Book details

List price: $17.95
Edition: 8th
Copyright year: 2003
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company, Incorporated
Publication date: 1/17/2004
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 416
Size: 5.50" wide x 8.00" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 0.880
Language: English

Burton Gordon Malkiel is an economics professor at Princeton University. He has written A Random Walk Down Wall Street: Including a Life-Cycle Guide to Personal Investing and assisted in the development of the book, Earn More (Sleep Better): The Index Fund Solution, written by Richard E. Evans.

Preface
Acknowledgments from Earlier Editions
Stocks and Their Value
Firm Foundations and Castles in the Air
What Is a Random Walk?
Investing as a Way of Life Today
Investing in Theory
The Firm-Foundation Theory
The Castle-in-the-Air Theory
How the Random Walk Is to Be Conducted
The Madness of Crowds
The Tulip-Bulb Craze
The South Sea Bubble
Wall Street Lays an Egg
An Afterword
Stock Valuation from the Sixties through the Nineties
The Sanity of Institutions
The Soaring Sixties
The New "New Era": The Growth-Stock/New-Issue Craze
Synergy Generates Energy: The Conglomerate Boom
Performance Comes to the Market: The Bubble in Concept Stocks
The Sour Seventies
The Nifty Fifty
The Roaring Eighties
The Triumphant Return of New Issues
Concepts Conquer Again: The Biotechnology Bubble
ZZZZ Best Bubble of All
What Does It All Mean?
The Nervy Nineties
The Japanese Yen for Land and Stocks
The Biggest Bubble of All: Surfing on the Internet
How Bubbles Arise
A Broad-Scale High-Tech Bubble
An Unprecedented New-Issue Craze
TheGlobe.com
Security Analysts $peak Up
New Valuation Metrics
The Writes of the Media
Fraud Slithers In and Strangles the Market
Should We Have Known the Dangers?
A Final Word
The Firm-Foundation Theory of Stock Prices
The "Fundamental" Determinants of Stock Prices
Two Important Caveats
Testing the Rules
One More Caveat
What's Left of the Firm Foundation?
How the Pros Play the Biggest Game in Town
Technical and Fundamental Analysis
Technical versus Fundamental Analysis
What Can Charts Tell You?
The Rationale for the Charting Method
Why Might Charting Fail to Work?
From Chartist to Technician
The Technique of Fundamental Analysis
Why Might Fundamental Analysis Fail to Work?
Using Fundamental and Technical Analysis Together
Technical Analysis and the Random-Walk Theory
Holes in Their Shoes and Ambiguity in Their Forecasts
Is There Momentum in the Stock Market?
Just What Exactly Is a Random Walk?
Some More Elaborate Technical Systems
The Filter System
The Dow Theory
The Relative-Strength System
Price-Volume Systems
Reading Chart Patterns
Randomness Is Hard to Accept
A Gaggle of Other Technical Theories to Help You Lose Money
The Hemline Indicator
The Super Bowl Indicator
The Odd-Lot Theory
A Few More Systems
Technical Market Gurus
Why Are Technicians Still Hired?
Appraising the Counterattack
Implications for Investors
How Good Is Fundamental Analysis?
The Views from Wall Street and Academia
Are Security Analysts Fundamentally Clairvoyant?
Why the Crystal Ball Is Clouded
The Influence of Random Events
The Production of Dubious Reported Earnings through "Creative" Accounting Procedures
The Basic Incompetence of Many of the Analysts Themselves
The Loss of the Best Analysts to the Sales Desk or to Portfolio Management
The Conflicts of Interest between Research and Investment Banking Departments
Do Security Analysts Pick Winners?--The Performance of the Mutual Funds
Can Any Fundamental System Pick Winners?
The Verdict on Market Timing
The Semi-strong and Strong Forms of the Efficient-Market Theory
The Middle of the Road: A Personal Viewpoint
The New Investment Technology
A New Walking Shoe: Modern Portfolio Theory
The Role of Risk
Defining Risk: The Dispersion of Returns
Illustration: Expected Return and Variance Measures of Reward and Risk
Documenting Risk: A Long-Run Study
Reducing Risk: Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
Diversification in Practice
Reaping Reward by Increasing Risk
Beta and Systematic Risk
The Capital-Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Let's Look at the Record
An Appraisal of the Evidence
The Quant Quest for Better Measures of Risk: Arbitrage Pricing Theory
A Summing Up
Potshots at the Efficient-Market Theory and Why They Miss
What Do We Mean by Saying Markets Are Efficient?
Potshots That Completely Miss the Target
Dogs of the Dow
January Effect
"Thank God It's Monday Afternoon" Pattern
Hot News Response
Why the Aim Is So Bad
Potshots That Get Close but Still Miss the Target
The Trend Is Your Friend (Otherwise Known as Short-Term Momentum)
The Dividend Jackpot Approach
The Initial P/E Predictor
The "Back We Go Again" Strategy (Otherwise Known as Long-Run Return Reversals)
The Smaller Is Better Effect
The "Value Will Win" Record
Stocks with Low Price-Earnings Multiples Outperform Those with High Multiples
Stocks That Sell at Low Multiples of Their Book Values Tend to Produce Higher Subsequent Returns
But Does "Value" Really Trump Growth on a Consistent Basis?
Why Even Close Shots Miss
And the Winner Is ...
The Performance of Professional Investors
A Summing Up
A Practical Guide for Random Walkers and Other Investors
A Fitness Manual for Random Walkers
Cover Thyself with Protection
Know Your Investment Objectives
Dodge Uncle Sam Whenever You Can
Pension Plans and IRAs
Keogh Plans
Roth IRAs
Tax-Deferred Annuities
Saving for College: As Easy as 529
Be Competitive--Let the Yield on Your Cash Reserve Keep Pace with Inflation
Money-Market Mutual Funds
Money-Market Deposit Accounts
Bank Certificates
Tax-Exempt Money-Market Funds
Investigate a Promenade through Bond Country
Zero-Coupon Bonds Can Generate Large Future Returns
No-Load Bond Funds Are Appropriate Vehicles for Individual Investors
Tax-Exempt Bonds Are Useful for High-Bracket Investors
Hot TIPS: Inflation-Indexed Bonds
Should You Be a Bond-Market Junkie?
Begin Your Walk at Your Own Home--Renting Leads to Flabby Investment Muscles
Beef Up with Real Estate Investment Trusts
Tiptoe through the Fields of Gold, Collectibles, and Other Investments
Remember That Commission Costs Are Not Random; Some Are Cheaper than Others
Diversify Your Investment Steps
A Final Checkup
Handicapping the Financial Race: A Primer in Understanding and Projecting Returns from Stocks and Bonds
What Determines the Returns from Stocks and Bonds?
Three Eras of Financial Market Returns
The Age of Comfort
The Age of Angst
The Age of Exuberance
The Age of the Millennium
A Life-Cycle Guide to Investing
Four Asset-Allocation Principles
Risk and Reward Are Related
Your Actual Risk in Stock and Bond Investing Depends on the Length of Time You Hold Your Investment
Dollar-Cost Averaging Can Reduce the Risks of Investing in Stocks and Bonds
Distinguishing between Your Attitude toward and Your Capacity for Risk
Three Guidelines to Tailoring a Life-Cycle Investment Plan
Specific Needs Require Dedicated Specific Assets
Recognize Your Tolerance for Risk
Persistent Saving in Regular Amounts, No Matter How Small, Pays Off
The Life-Cycle Investment Guide
Three Giant Steps Down Wall Street
The No-Brainer Step: Investing in Index Funds
The Index-Fund Solution: A Summary
A Broader Definition of Indexing
A Specific Index-Fund Portfolio
The Tax-Managed Index Fund
The Do-It-Yourself Step: Potentially Useful Stock-Picking Rules
Confine stock purchases to companies that appear able to sustain above-average earnings growth for at least five years
Never pay more for a stock than can reasonably be justified by a firm foundation of value
It helps to buy stocks with the kinds of stories of anticipated growth on which investors can build castles in the air
Trade as little as possible
The Substitute-Player Step: Hiring a Professional Wall Street Walker
The Morningstar Mutual-Fund Information Service
A Primer on Mutual-Fund Costs
Loading Fees
Expense Charges
Comparing Mutual-Fund Costs
The Malkiel Step
A Paradox
Some Last Reflections on Our Walk
Supplement: How Pork Bellies Acquired an Ivy League Suit: A Primer on Derivatives
Appendix to Supplement: What Determines Prices in the Futures and Options Markets?
A Random Walker's Address Book and Reference Guide to Mutual Funds
Index

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