| |
| |
| Introduction | |
| |
| |
| |
| Simple Models from Tabletop Baseball Games | |
| |
| |
| All-Star Baseball (ASB) | |
| |
| |
| Model Assumptions of All-Star Baseball | |
| |
| |
| The APBA Model: Introducing the Pitcher | |
| |
| |
| Strat-O-Matic Baseball: The Independent Model | |
| |
| |
| Sports Illustrated Baseball: The Interactive Model | |
| |
| |
| Which Model Is Best? | |
| |
| |
| |
| Exploring Baseball Data | |
| |
| |
| Exploring Hitting Data | |
| |
| |
| A Batch of On-Base Percentages | |
| |
| |
| Simple Graphs | |
| |
| |
| Typical Values--the Mean and the Median | |
| |
| |
| Measures of Spread--Quartiles and the Standard Deviation | |
| |
| |
| Interesting Values | |
| |
| |
| Comparing Groups | |
| |
| |
| A Five-Number Summary | |
| |
| |
| A Boxplot | |
| |
| |
| Boxplots to Compare Groups | |
| |
| |
| OBPs of Offensive and Defensive Players | |
| |
| |
| Relationships Between Batting Measures | |
| |
| |
| Relating OBP and SLG | |
| |
| |
| Relating OBP and Isolated Power | |
| |
| |
| What about Pitching Data? | |
| |
| |
| Strikeouts and Walks | |
| |
| |
| Looking at Strikeout Totals | |
| |
| |
| Defining a Strikeout Rate | |
| |
| |
| Comparing Strikeout Rates of Starters and Relievers | |
| |
| |
| Association Between Strikeouts and Walks? | |
| |
| |
| Exploring Walk Rates | |
| |
| |
| Comparing Walk Rates of Starters and Relievers | |
| |
| |
| |
| Introducing Probability | |
| |
| |
| Beyond Data Analysis | |
| |
| |
| Looking for Real Effects | |
| |
| |
| Predicting OBPs | |
| |
| |
| Probability Models | |
| |
| |
| A Coin-Toss Model | |
| |
| |
| Observed and True OBPs | |
| |
| |
| Learning about Batting Ability | |
| |
| |
| Estimating Batting Ability Using a Confidence Interval | |
| |
| |
| Comparing Hitters | |
| |
| |
| |
| Situational Effects | |
| |
| |
| Surveying the Situation | |
| |
| |
| Looking for Real Effects | |
| |
| |
| Observed and True Batting Averages | |
| |
| |
| Batting Averages of the 1998 Regulars | |
| |
| |
| Two Models for Batting Averages | |
| |
| |
| A .276 Spinner Model | |
| |
| |
| Do All Players Have the Same Ability? | |
| |
| |
| A Model Using a Set of Random Spinners | |
| |
| |
| Situational Effects | |
| |
| |
| Home vs. Away | |
| |
| |
| Turf vs. Grass | |
| |
| |
| The Count | |
| |
| |
| Opposite Arm vs. Same Arm | |
| |
| |
| Models for Situational Effects | |
| |
| |
| Scenario 1 (No Situational Effect) | |
| |
| |
| Scenario 2 (Situational Bias) | |
| |
| |
| Scenario 3 (Situational Effect Depends on Ability) | |
| |
| |
| Finding Good Models | |
| |
| |
| What Do Observed Situational Effects Look Like When There Is No Effect? | |
| |
| |
| The Last Five Years' Data | |
| |
| |
| The "No Effect" Situations | |
| |
| |
| The "Bias" Situations | |
| |
| |
| The "Ability" Situations | |
| |
| |
| How Large Are the True Ability Effects? | |
| |
| |
| Game Situation Effects | |
| |
| |
| A Lot of Noise | |
| |
| |
| |
| Streakiness (Or, the Hot Hand) | |
| |
| |
| Thinking about Streakiness | |
| |
| |
| Interpreting Baseball Data | |
| |
| |
| Moving Averages--Looking at Short Intervals | |
| |
| |
| Runs of Good and Bad Games | |
| |
| |
| Numbers of Good and Poor Hitting Days | |
| |
| |
| What Is Zeile's True Hitting Ability? | |
| |
| |
| Mr. Consistent | |
| |
| |
| How Does Mr. Consistent Perform During a Season? | |
| |
| |
| Mr. Streaky | |
| |
| |
| How Does Mr. Streaky Perform During a Season? | |
| |
| |
| Mr. Consistent or Mr. Streaky? | |
| |
| |
| Team Play | |
| |
| |
| A Consistent Team | |
| |
| |
| A Streaky Team | |
| |
| |
| Thinking about Streakiness--Again | |
| |
| |
| |
| Measuring Offensive Performance | |
| |
| |
| The Great Quest | |
| |
| |
| Runs Scored per Game | |
| |
| |
| Batting Average and Runs Scored per Game | |
| |
| |
| Slugging Percentage and On-Base Percentage | |
| |
| |
| Intuitive Techniques | |
| |
| |
| On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS) | |
| |
| |
| Total Average (TA) | |
| |
| |
| Batter's Run Average (BRA) and Scoring Index (DX) | |
| |
| |
| Runs Created (RC) | |
| |
| |
| More Analytic Models | |
| |
| |
| |
| Average Runs Per Play | |
| |
| |
| Finding Weights for Plays | |
| |
| |
| Least Squares Linear Regression (LSLR) | |
| |
| |
| Adding Caught Stealing to the LSLR Model | |
| |
| |
| Adding Sacrifice Flies to the LSLR Model | |
| |
| |
| The Lindsey-Palmer Models | |
| |
| |
| George Lindsey's Analysis | |
| |
| |
| Palmer Enters the Picture | |
| |
| |
| Comparing the LSLR and Lindsey-Palmer Models | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Curvature of Baseball | |
| |
| |
| The DLSI Simulation Model | |
| |
| |
| The Probability of Scoring Two Runs | |
| |
| |
| The Probability of Scoring No Runs | |
| |
| |
| A DLSI Example | |
| |
| |
| Lessons from the Simulation | |
| |
| |
| DLSI and Runs per Play | |
| |
| |
| Where Do We Stand? | |
| |
| |
| Additive Models | |
| |
| |
| Product Models | |
| |
| |
| Player Evaluations in the Best Models | |
| |
| |
| Player Evaluations on an Average Team | |
| |
| |
| Sorting Out Strengths and Weaknesses | |
| |
| |
| |
| Measuring Clutch Play | |
| |
| |
| Clutch Hits | |
| |
| |
| Leading Off an Inning vs. Not Leading Off | |
| |
| |
| Runners in Scoring Position vs. Bases Empty | |
| |
| |
| Runner in Scoring Position vs. Runner on First Base Only | |
| |
| |
| Two Outs vs. None/One Out | |
| |
| |
| Late Inning Pressure vs. No Late Inning Pressure | |
| |
| |
| A Player in a Short Series | |
| |
| |
| Situation Evaluation of Run Production | |
| |
| |
| A New Criterion for Performance | |
| |
| |
| The Calculation of Win Probabilities | |
| |
| |
| Player Game Percentage (PGP) | |
| |
| |
| World Series Most Valuable Players | |
| |
| |
| Looking to the Future | |
| |
| |
| |
| Prediction | |
| |
| |
| Predicting Game Results | |
| |
| |
| Guessing | |
| |
| |
| Picking the Home Team | |
| |
| |
| A "Team Strengths" Prediction Model | |
| |
| |
| Predicting 1999 Game Results | |
| |
| |
| How Good Were Our Predictions? | |
| |
| |
| Predicting the Number of McGwire and Sosa Home Runs | |
| |
| |
| A Simple Prediction Method | |
| |
| |
| What's Wrong with This Prediction? | |
| |
| |
| A Spinner Model for Home-Run Hitting | |
| |
| |
| How Many At-Bats? | |
| |
| |
| What If We Knew Sosa's True Home-Run Rate? | |
| |
| |
| Binomial Probabilities | |
| |
| |
| What If We Don't Know Sosa's True Home-Run Rate? | |
| |
| |
| Revising Our Beliefs about Sosa's Home-Run Probability | |
| |
| |
| One Prediction | |
| |
| |
| Many Predictions | |
| |
| |
| Predicting Career Statistics | |
| |
| |
| Sosa's Home-Run Probabilities | |
| |
| |
| How Long and How Many At-Bats? | |
| |
| |
| Making the Predictions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Did the Best Team Win? | |
| |
| |
| The Big Question | |
| |
| |
| Ability and Performance | |
| |
| |
| Describing a Team's Ability | |
| |
| |
| Describing a Team's Performance | |
| |
| |
| Team Performance: 1871 to the Present | |
| |
| |
| Explanations for the Winning Percentages | |
| |
| |
| A Normal Curve Model | |
| |
| |
| Team Performances over Time (Revisited) | |
| |
| |
| A Mediocrity Model for Abilities | |
| |
| |
| A Normal Model for Abilities | |
| |
| |
| Weak, Average, and Strong Teams | |
| |
| |
| A Model for Playing a Season | |
| |
| |
| Simulating a Season | |
| |
| |
| Simulating an American League Season | |
| |
| |
| Simulating Many American League Seasons | |
| |
| |
| Performances and Abilities of Different Types of Teams | |
| |
| |
| Simulating an Entire Season | |
| |
| |
| Chance | |
| |
| |
| |
| Post-Game Comments (a Brief Afterword) | |
| |
| |
| Bibliography | |