| |
| |
| |
| Introduction | |
| |
| |
| What Is a Population Projection? | |
| |
| |
| Projections, Forecasts, Estimates | |
| |
| |
| Alternative Approaches to Projecting Population | |
| |
| |
| Why Make Population Projections? | |
| |
| |
| Roles of Projections | |
| |
| |
| Projections and Decision Making | |
| |
| |
| Forecasting and Planning | |
| |
| |
| How Can This Book Help? | |
| |
| |
| Objectives | |
| |
| |
| Geographic Focus | |
| |
| |
| Coverage | |
| |
| |
| Target Audience | |
| |
| |
| |
| Fundamentals of Population Analysis | |
| |
| |
| Demographic Concepts | |
| |
| |
| Size | |
| |
| |
| Distribution | |
| |
| |
| Composition | |
| |
| |
| Change | |
| |
| |
| Components of Change | |
| |
| |
| Fertility | |
| |
| |
| Mortality | |
| |
| |
| Migration | |
| |
| |
| Demographic Balancing Equation | |
| |
| |
| Statistical Measures | |
| |
| |
| Sources of Data | |
| |
| |
| Decennial Census | |
| |
| |
| Vital Statistics | |
| |
| |
| Sample Surveys | |
| |
| |
| Administrative Records | |
| |
| |
| Population Estimates | |
| |
| |
| |
| Overview of the Cohort-Component Method | |
| |
| |
| Concepts and Terminology | |
| |
| |
| Brief Description of Procedures | |
| |
| |
| |
| Mortality | |
| |
| |
| Mortality Measures | |
| |
| |
| Crude Death Rate | |
| |
| |
| Age-Specific Death Rate | |
| |
| |
| Survival Rates | |
| |
| |
| Life Table Survival Rates | |
| |
| |
| Census Survival Rates | |
| |
| |
| Approaches to Projecting Mortality Rates | |
| |
| |
| Constant Rates | |
| |
| |
| Trend Extrapolation | |
| |
| |
| Targeting | |
| |
| |
| Cause-Delay | |
| |
| |
| Synthetic Projection | |
| |
| |
| Implementing the Mortality Component | |
| |
| |
| Sources of Data | |
| |
| |
| Views of the Future | |
| |
| |
| Examples | |
| |
| |
| Conclusions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Fertility | |
| |
| |
| Fertility Measures | |
| |
| |
| Crude Birth Rate | |
| |
| |
| General Fertility Rate | |
| |
| |
| Age-Specific Birth Rate | |
| |
| |
| Total Fertility Rate | |
| |
| |
| Child-Woman Ratio | |
| |
| |
| Two Perspectives: Period and Cohort | |
| |
| |
| Defining the Relationship | |
| |
| |
| Assessing the Issues | |
| |
| |
| Approaches to Projecting Fertility Rates | |
| |
| |
| Using Period Rates | |
| |
| |
| Using Cohort Rates | |
| |
| |
| Implementing the Fertility Component | |
| |
| |
| Sources of Data | |
| |
| |
| Views of the Future | |
| |
| |
| Examples | |
| |
| |
| Conclusions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Migration | |
| |
| |
| Concepts, Measures, Definitions | |
| |
| |
| Place of Residence | |
| |
| |
| Mobility and Migration | |
| |
| |
| Length of Migration Interval | |
| |
| |
| Gross and Net Migration | |
| |
| |
| Migration Rates | |
| |
| |
| International and Internal Migration | |
| |
| |
| Assessing the Issues | |
| |
| |
| Sources of Data | |
| |
| |
| Decennial Census | |
| |
| |
| Administrative Records | |
| |
| |
| Sample Surveys | |
| |
| |
| Residual Estimates | |
| |
| |
| Determinants of Migration | |
| |
| |
| Theoretical Foundations | |
| |
| |
| Reasons for Moving | |
| |
| |
| Statistical Analyses | |
| |
| |
| Migration Models | |
| |
| |
| Gross Migration | |
| |
| |
| Net Migration | |
| |
| |
| Implementing the Migration Component | |
| |
| |
| Choosing Appropriate Models | |
| |
| |
| Choosing Data and Assumptions | |
| |
| |
| Accounting for Unique Events and Special Populations | |
| |
| |
| Accounting for Data Problems | |
| |
| |
| Converting Data to Alternate Time Intervals | |
| |
| |
| Conclusions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Implementing the Cohort-Component Method | |
| |
| |
| General Considerations | |
| |
| |
| Applying the Cohort-Component Method | |
| |
| |
| Gross Migration (Model I) | |
| |
| |
| Net Migration (Model II) | |
| |
| |
| Hamilton-Perry (Model III) | |
| |
| |
| Comparing Models I, II, and III | |
| |
| |
| Conclusions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Trend Extrapolation Methods | |
| |
| |
| Simple Methods | |
| |
| |
| Linear | |
| |
| |
| Geometric | |
| |
| |
| Exponential | |
| |
| |
| Complex Methods | |
| |
| |
| Linear Trend | |
| |
| |
| Polynomial Curve Fitting | |
| |
| |
| Logistic Curve Fitting | |
| |
| |
| ARIMA Model | |
| |
| |
| Ratio Methods | |
| |
| |
| Constant-Share | |
| |
| |
| Shift-Share | |
| |
| |
| Share-of-Growth | |
| |
| |
| Other Applications | |
| |
| |
| Analyzing Projection Results | |
| |
| |
| Conclusions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Structural Models I: Economic-Demographic | |
| |
| |
| Overview of Structural Models | |
| |
| |
| Focus on Migration | |
| |
| |
| Factors Affecting Migration | |
| |
| |
| Employment | |
| |
| |
| Unemployment Rate | |
| |
| |
| Wages and Income | |
| |
| |
| Amenities | |
| |
| |
| Recursive Models | |
| |
| |
| Econometric Models | |
| |
| |
| Balancing Labor Supply and Demand | |
| |
| |
| Population/Employment Ratios | |
| |
| |
| Nonrecursive Models | |
| |
| |
| Economic and Demographic Relationships | |
| |
| |
| Regional Economic Models, Incorporated (REMI) | |
| |
| |
| Conclusions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Structural Models II: Urban Systems | |
| |
| |
| A Brief History of Urban Systems Models | |
| |
| |
| Components of Urban Systems Models | |
| |
| |
| Regional Projections | |
| |
| |
| Zonal Land Use and Activity Model | |
| |
| |
| Transportation Model | |
| |
| |
| Linking the Components | |
| |
| |
| Data Requirements and Sources | |
| |
| |
| Population, Housing, Income | |
| |
| |
| Employment | |
| |
| |
| Land Use | |
| |
| |
| Illustration of a Residential Location Model | |
| |
| |
| Land Use and Activity Models Used Today | |
| |
| |
| DRAM and EMPAL: Descendants of Lowry's Gravity Model | |
| |
| |
| POLIS: An Optimization Model | |
| |
| |
| Land Pricing Models | |
| |
| |
| Microgeographic Land Use and Activity Models | |
| |
| |
| California Urban Futures Model | |
| |
| |
| Conclusions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Special Adjustments | |
| |
| |
| International Migration | |
| |
| |
| Special Populations | |
| |
| |
| Incorporating Special Populations into the Projection | |
| |
| |
| Assessing Data for Special Populations | |
| |
| |
| Illustrating the Impact of a Special Population | |
| |
| |
| Census Enumeration Errors | |
| |
| |
| Controlling | |
| |
| |
| Controlling to Independent Projections | |
| |
| |
| Controlling to Projections of Larger Geographic Areas | |
| |
| |
| Providing Additional Temporal and Age Detail | |
| |
| |
| Adding Temporal Detail | |
| |
| |
| Adding Age Detail | |
| |
| |
| Conclusions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Evaluating Projections | |
| |
| |
| Evaluation Criteria | |
| |
| |
| Provision of Necessary Detail | |
| |
| |
| Face Validity | |
| |
| |
| Plausibility | |
| |
| |
| Costs of Production | |
| |
| |
| Timeliness | |
| |
| |
| Ease of Application and Explanation | |
| |
| |
| Usefulness as an Analytical Tool | |
| |
| |
| Political Acceptability | |
| |
| |
| Forecast Accuracy | |
| |
| |
| A Balancing Act | |
| |
| |
| Comparing Methods | |
| |
| |
| Provision of Detail | |
| |
| |
| Face Validity and Plausibility | |
| |
| |
| Costs and Timeliness | |
| |
| |
| Ease of Application and Explanation | |
| |
| |
| Usefulness as an Analytical Tool | |
| |
| |
| Political Acceptability | |
| |
| |
| Forecast Accuracy | |
| |
| |
| Conclusions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Forecast Accuracy and Bias | |
| |
| |
| Measuring Accuracy and Bias | |
| |
| |
| Defining Forecast Error | |
| |
| |
| Common Error Measures | |
| |
| |
| Selection Criteria | |
| |
| |
| Factors That Affect Accuracy and Bias | |
| |
| |
| Projection Method | |
| |
| |
| Population Size | |
| |
| |
| Population Growth Rate | |
| |
| |
| Length of Horizon | |
| |
| |
| Length of Base Period | |
| |
| |
| Launch Year | |
| |
| |
| Combining Forecasts | |
| |
| |
| Accounting for Uncertainty | |
| |
| |
| Range of Projections | |
| |
| |
| Prediction Intervals | |
| |
| |
| Conclusions | |
| |
| |
| |
| A Practical Guide to Small-Area Projections | |
| |
| |
| Determine What Is Needed | |
| |
| |
| Demographic Characteristics | |
| |
| |
| Geographic Areas | |
| |
| |
| Length of Horizon and Projection Interval | |
| |
| |
| Time and Budget Constraints | |
| |
| |
| Other Considerations | |
| |
| |
| Construct the Projections | |
| |
| |
| Select Computer Software | |
| |
| |
| Choose Projection Method(s) | |
| |
| |
| Collect and Evaluate Data | |
| |
| |
| Adjust for Special Events | |
| |
| |
| Control for Consistency | |
| |
| |
| Account for Uncertainty | |
| |
| |
| Review and Document the Results | |
| |
| |
| Internal Review | |
| |
| |
| External Review | |
| |
| |
| Documentation | |
| |
| |
| Conclusions | |
| |
| |
| |
| New Directions in Population Projection Research | |
| |
| |
| Technological Developments | |
| |
| |
| Data Availability | |
| |
| |
| Computing Capabilities | |
| |
| |
| Geographic Information Systems | |
| |
| |
| Methodological Developments | |
| |
| |
| Microsimulation Models | |
| |
| |
| Spatial Diffusion Models | |
| |
| |
| Artificial Neural Networks | |
| |
| |
| Integrating Expert Judgment | |
| |
| |
| Measuring Uncertainty | |
| |
| |
| Combining Projections | |
| |
| |
| Scope of Projections | |
| |
| |
| Some Challenges | |
| |
| |
| Glossary | |
| |
| |
| References | |
| |
| |
| Author Index | |
| |
| |
| Subject Index | |