x

Our Privacy Policy has changed. By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy.

State and Local Population Projections Methodology and Analysis

ISBN-10: 0306464934
ISBN-13: 9780306464935
Edition: 2002
List price: $109.00 Buy it from $2.47
This item qualifies for FREE shipping

*A minimum purchase of $35 is required. Shipping is provided via FedEx SmartPost® and FedEx Express Saver®. Average delivery time is 1 – 5 business days, but is not guaranteed in that timeframe. Also allow 1 - 2 days for processing. Free shipping is eligible only in the continental United States and excludes Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico. FedEx service marks used by permission."Marketplace" orders are not eligible for free or discounted shipping.

30 day, 100% satisfaction guarantee

If an item you ordered from TextbookRush does not meet your expectations due to an error on our part, simply fill out a return request and then return it by mail within 30 days of ordering it for a full refund of item cost.

Learn more about our returns policy

Description: This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques within each of three classes of projection methods (cohort-component, trend  More...

New Starting from $111.56
what's this?
Rush Rewards U
Members Receive:
coins
coins
You have reached 400 XP and carrot coins. That is the daily max!

Study Briefs

Limited time offer: Get the first one free! (?)

All the information you need in one place! Each Study Brief is a summary of one specific subject; facts, figures, and explanations to help you learn faster.

Add to cart
Study Briefs
Periodic Table Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
Calculus 1 Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
Medical Terminology Online content $4.95 $1.99

Customers also bought

Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading

Book details

List price: $109.00
Copyright year: 2002
Publisher: Springer
Publication date: 4/30/2001
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 426
Size: 9.25" wide x 6.25" long x 1.50" tall
Weight: 1.430
Language: English

This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques within each of three classes of projection methods (cohort-component, trend extrapolation, and structural models) and covers the components of population growth, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods, paying special attention to the unique problems of making projections for small areas, and closes with an examination of technological and methodological changes affecting the production of small-area population projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, and other analysts called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data; they also describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another and for interpolating between two projections. They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the "utility" of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.

Introduction
What Is a Population Projection?
Projections, Forecasts, Estimates
Alternative Approaches to Projecting Population
Why Make Population Projections?
Roles of Projections
Projections and Decision Making
Forecasting and Planning
How Can This Book Help?
Objectives
Geographic Focus
Coverage
Target Audience
Fundamentals of Population Analysis
Demographic Concepts
Size
Distribution
Composition
Change
Components of Change
Fertility
Mortality
Migration
Demographic Balancing Equation
Statistical Measures
Sources of Data
Decennial Census
Vital Statistics
Sample Surveys
Administrative Records
Population Estimates
Overview of the Cohort-Component Method
Concepts and Terminology
Brief Description of Procedures
Mortality
Mortality Measures
Crude Death Rate
Age-Specific Death Rate
Survival Rates
Life Table Survival Rates
Census Survival Rates
Approaches to Projecting Mortality Rates
Constant Rates
Trend Extrapolation
Targeting
Cause-Delay
Synthetic Projection
Implementing the Mortality Component
Sources of Data
Views of the Future
Examples
Conclusions
Fertility
Fertility Measures
Crude Birth Rate
General Fertility Rate
Age-Specific Birth Rate
Total Fertility Rate
Child-Woman Ratio
Two Perspectives: Period and Cohort
Defining the Relationship
Assessing the Issues
Approaches to Projecting Fertility Rates
Using Period Rates
Using Cohort Rates
Implementing the Fertility Component
Sources of Data
Views of the Future
Examples
Conclusions
Migration
Concepts, Measures, Definitions
Place of Residence
Mobility and Migration
Length of Migration Interval
Gross and Net Migration
Migration Rates
International and Internal Migration
Assessing the Issues
Sources of Data
Decennial Census
Administrative Records
Sample Surveys
Residual Estimates
Determinants of Migration
Theoretical Foundations
Reasons for Moving
Statistical Analyses
Migration Models
Gross Migration
Net Migration
Implementing the Migration Component
Choosing Appropriate Models
Choosing Data and Assumptions
Accounting for Unique Events and Special Populations
Accounting for Data Problems
Converting Data to Alternate Time Intervals
Conclusions
Implementing the Cohort-Component Method
General Considerations
Applying the Cohort-Component Method
Gross Migration (Model I)
Net Migration (Model II)
Hamilton-Perry (Model III)
Comparing Models I, II, and III
Conclusions
Trend Extrapolation Methods
Simple Methods
Linear
Geometric
Exponential
Complex Methods
Linear Trend
Polynomial Curve Fitting
Logistic Curve Fitting
ARIMA Model
Ratio Methods
Constant-Share
Shift-Share
Share-of-Growth
Other Applications
Analyzing Projection Results
Conclusions
Structural Models I: Economic-Demographic
Overview of Structural Models
Focus on Migration
Factors Affecting Migration
Employment
Unemployment Rate
Wages and Income
Amenities
Recursive Models
Econometric Models
Balancing Labor Supply and Demand
Population/Employment Ratios
Nonrecursive Models
Economic and Demographic Relationships
Regional Economic Models, Incorporated (REMI)
Conclusions
Structural Models II: Urban Systems
A Brief History of Urban Systems Models
Components of Urban Systems Models
Regional Projections
Zonal Land Use and Activity Model
Transportation Model
Linking the Components
Data Requirements and Sources
Population, Housing, Income
Employment
Land Use
Illustration of a Residential Location Model
Land Use and Activity Models Used Today
DRAM and EMPAL: Descendants of Lowry's Gravity Model
POLIS: An Optimization Model
Land Pricing Models
Microgeographic Land Use and Activity Models
California Urban Futures Model
Conclusions
Special Adjustments
International Migration
Special Populations
Incorporating Special Populations into the Projection
Assessing Data for Special Populations
Illustrating the Impact of a Special Population
Census Enumeration Errors
Controlling
Controlling to Independent Projections
Controlling to Projections of Larger Geographic Areas
Providing Additional Temporal and Age Detail
Adding Temporal Detail
Adding Age Detail
Conclusions
Evaluating Projections
Evaluation Criteria
Provision of Necessary Detail
Face Validity
Plausibility
Costs of Production
Timeliness
Ease of Application and Explanation
Usefulness as an Analytical Tool
Political Acceptability
Forecast Accuracy
A Balancing Act
Comparing Methods
Provision of Detail
Face Validity and Plausibility
Costs and Timeliness
Ease of Application and Explanation
Usefulness as an Analytical Tool
Political Acceptability
Forecast Accuracy
Conclusions
Forecast Accuracy and Bias
Measuring Accuracy and Bias
Defining Forecast Error
Common Error Measures
Selection Criteria
Factors That Affect Accuracy and Bias
Projection Method
Population Size
Population Growth Rate
Length of Horizon
Length of Base Period
Launch Year
Combining Forecasts
Accounting for Uncertainty
Range of Projections
Prediction Intervals
Conclusions
A Practical Guide to Small-Area Projections
Determine What Is Needed
Demographic Characteristics
Geographic Areas
Length of Horizon and Projection Interval
Time and Budget Constraints
Other Considerations
Construct the Projections
Select Computer Software
Choose Projection Method(s)
Collect and Evaluate Data
Adjust for Special Events
Control for Consistency
Account for Uncertainty
Review and Document the Results
Internal Review
External Review
Documentation
Conclusions
New Directions in Population Projection Research
Technological Developments
Data Availability
Computing Capabilities
Geographic Information Systems
Methodological Developments
Microsimulation Models
Spatial Diffusion Models
Artificial Neural Networks
Integrating Expert Judgment
Measuring Uncertainty
Combining Projections
Scope of Projections
Some Challenges
Glossary
References
Author Index
Subject Index

×
Free shipping on orders over $35*

*A minimum purchase of $35 is required. Shipping is provided via FedEx SmartPost® and FedEx Express Saver®. Average delivery time is 1 – 5 business days, but is not guaranteed in that timeframe. Also allow 1 - 2 days for processing. Free shipping is eligible only in the continental United States and excludes Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico. FedEx service marks used by permission."Marketplace" orders are not eligible for free or discounted shipping.

Learn more about the TextbookRush Marketplace.

×