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Introduction | |

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The challenge of teaching introductory statistics | |

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Fitting demonstrations, examples, and projects into a course | |

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What makes a good example? | |

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Why is statistics important? | |

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The best of the best | |

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Our motivation for writing this book | |

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Introductory Probability and Statistics | |

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First week of class | |

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Guessing ages | |

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Where are the cancers? | |

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Estimating a big number | |

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What's in the news? | |

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Collecting data from students | |

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Descriptive statistics | |

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Displaying graphs on the blackboard | |

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Time series | |

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World record times for the mile run | |

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Numerical variables, distributions, and histograms | |

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Categorical and continuous variables | |

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Handedness | |

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Soft drink consumption | |

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Numerical summaries | |

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Average soft drink consumption | |

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The average student | |

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Data in more than one dimension | |

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Guessing exam scores | |

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Who opposed the Vietnam War? | |

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The normal distribution in one and two dimensions | |

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Heights of men and women | |

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Heights of conscripts | |

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Scores on two exams | |

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Linear transformations and linear combinations | |

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College admissions | |

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Social and economic indexes | |

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Age adjustment | |

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Logarithmic transformations | |

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Simple examples: amoebas, squares, and cubes | |

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Log-linear transformation: world population | |

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Log-log transformation: metabolic rates | |

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Linear regression and correlation | |

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Fitting linear regressions | |

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Simple examples of least squares | |

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Tall people have higher incomes | |

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Logarithm of world population | |

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Correlation | |

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Correlations of body measurements | |

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Correlation and causation in observational data | |

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Regression to the mean p45 | |

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Mini-quizzes | |

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Exam scores, heights, and the general principle | |

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Data collection | |

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Sample surveys | |

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Sampling from the telephone book | |

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First digits and Benford's law | |

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Wacky surveys | |

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An election exit poll | |

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Simple examples of bias | |

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How large is your family? | |

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Class projects in survey sampling | |

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The steps of the project | |

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Topics for student surveys | |

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Experiments | |

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An experiment that looks like a survey | |

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Randomizing the order of exam questions | |

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Taste tests | |

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Observational studies | |

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The Surgeon General's report on smoking | |

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Large population studies | |

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Coaching for the SAT | |

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Statistical literacy and the news media | |

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Introduction | |

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Assignment based on instructional packets | |

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Assignment where students find their own articles | |

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Guidelines for finding and evaluating sources | |

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Discussion and student reactions | |

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Examples of course packets | |

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A controlled experiment: IV fluids for trauma victims | |

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A sample survey: 1 in 4 youths abused, survey finds | |

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An observational study: Monster in the crib | |

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A model-based analysis: Illegal aliens put uneven load | |

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Probability | |

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Constructing probability examples | |

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Random numbers via dice or handouts | |

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Random digits via dice | |

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Random digits via handouts | |

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Normal distribution | |

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Poisson distribution | |

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Probabilities of compound events | |

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Babies | |

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Real vs. fake coin flips | |

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Lotteries | |

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Probability modeling | |

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Lengths of baseball World Series | |

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Voting and coalitions | |

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Space shuttle failure and other rare events | |

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Conditional probability | |

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What's the color on the other side of the card? | |

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Lie detectors and false positives | |

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You can load a die but you can't bias a coin flip | |

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Demonstration using plastic checkers and wooden dice | |

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Sporting events and quantitative literacy | |

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Physical explanation | |

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Statistical inference | |

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Weighing a "random" sample | |

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From probability to inference: distributions of totals and averages | |

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Where are the missing girls? | |

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Real-time gambler's ruin | |

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Confidence intervals: examples | |

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Biases in age guessing | |

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Comparing two groups | |

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Land or water? | |

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Poll differentials: a discrete distribution | |

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Golf: can you putt like the pros? | |

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Confidence intervals: theory | |

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Coverage of confidence intervals | |

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Noncoverage of confidence intervals | |

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Hypothesis testing: z, t, and x[superscript 2] tests | |

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Hypothesis tests from examples of confidence intervals | |

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Binomial model: sampling from the phone book | |

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Hypergeometric model: taste testing | |

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Benford's law of first digits | |

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Length of baseball World Series | |

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Simple examples of applied inference | |

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How good is your memory? | |

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How common is your name? | |

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Advanced concepts of inference | |

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Shooting baskets and statistical power | |

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Do-it-yourself data dredging | |

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Praying for your health | |

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Multiple regression and nonlinear models | |

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Regression of income on height and sex | |

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Inference for regression coefficients | |

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Multiple regression | |

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Regression with interactions | |

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Transformations | |

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Exam scores | |

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Studying the fairness of random exams | |

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Measuring the reliability of exam questions | |

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A nonlinear model for golf putting | |

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Looking at data | |

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Constructing a probability model | |

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Checking the fit of the model to the data | |

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Pythagoras goes linear | |

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Lying with statistics | |

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Examples of misleading presentations of numbers | |

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Fabricated or meaningless numbers | |

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Misinformation | |

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Ignoring the baseline | |

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Arbitrary comparisons or data dredging | |

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Misleading comparisons | |

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Selection bias | |

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Distinguishing from other sorts of bias | |

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Some examples presented as puzzles | |

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Avoiding over-skepticism | |

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Reviewing the semester's material | |

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Classroom discussion | |

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Assignments: find the lie or create the lie | |

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1 in 2 marriages end in divorce? | |

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Ethics and statistics | |

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Cutting corners in a medical study | |

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Searching for statistical significance | |

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Controversies about randomized experiments | |

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How important is blindness? | |

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Use of information in statistical inferences | |

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Putting It All Together | |

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How to do it | |

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Getting started | |

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Multitasking | |

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Advance planning | |

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Fitting an activity to your class | |

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Common mistakes | |

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In-class activities | |

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Setting up effective demonstrations | |

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Promoting discussion | |

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Getting to know the students | |

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Fostering group work | |

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Using exams to teach statistical concepts | |

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Projects | |

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Monitoring progress | |

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Organizing independent projects | |

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Topics for projects | |

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Statistical design and analysis | |

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Resources | |

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What's in a spaghetti box? Cooking up activities from scratch | |

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Books | |

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Periodicals | |

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Web sites | |

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People | |

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Structuring an introductory statistics course | |

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Before the semester begins | |

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Finding time for student activities in class | |

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A detailed schedule for a semester-long course | |

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Outline for an alternative schedule of activities | |

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More Advanced Courses | |

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Decision theory and Bayesian statistics | |

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Decision analysis | |

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How many quarters are in the jar? | |

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Utility of money | |

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Risk aversion | |

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What is the value of a life? | |

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Probabilistic answers to true-false questions | |

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Homework project: evaluating real-life forecasts | |

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Real decision problems | |

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Bayesian statistics | |

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Where are the cancers? | |

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Subjective probability intervals and calibration | |

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Drawing parameters out of a hat | |

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Where are the cancers? A simulation | |

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Hierarchical modeling and shrinkage | |

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Student activities in survey sampling | |

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First week of class | |

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News clippings | |

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Class survey | |

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Random number generation | |

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What do random numbers look like? | |

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Random numbers from coin flips | |

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Estimation and confidence intervals | |

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A visit to Clusterville | |

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Statistical literacy and discussion topics | |

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Projects | |

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Research papers on complex surveys | |

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Sampling and inference in StatCity | |

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A special topic in sampling | |

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Problems and projects in probability | |

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Setting up a probability course as a seminar | |

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Introductory problems | |

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Probabilities of compound events | |

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Introducing the concept of expectation | |

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Challenging problems | |

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Does the Poisson distribution fit real data? | |

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Organizing student projects | |

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Examples of structured projects | |

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Fluctuations in coin tossing--arcsine laws | |

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Recurrence and transience in Markov chains | |

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Examples of unstructured projects | |

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Martingales | |

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Generating functions and branching processes | |

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Limit distributions of Markov chains | |

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Permutations | |

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Research papers as projects | |

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Directed projects in a mathematical statistics course | |

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Organization of a case study | |

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Fitting the cases into a course | |

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Covering the cases in lectures | |

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Group work in class | |

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Cases as reports | |

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Independent projects in a seminar course | |

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A case study: quality control | |

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A directed project: helicopter design | |

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General instructions | |

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Designing the study and fitting a response surface | |

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Notes | |

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References | |

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Author Index | |

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Subject Index | |