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| Introduction | |
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| The challenge of teaching introductory statistics | |
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| Fitting demonstrations, examples, and projects into a course | |
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| What makes a good example? | |
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| Why is statistics important? | |
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| The best of the best | |
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| Our motivation for writing this book | |
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| Introductory Probability and Statistics | |
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| First week of class | |
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| Guessing ages | |
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| Where are the cancers? | |
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| Estimating a big number | |
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| What's in the news? | |
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| Collecting data from students | |
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| Descriptive statistics | |
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| Displaying graphs on the blackboard | |
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| Time series | |
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| World record times for the mile run | |
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| Numerical variables, distributions, and histograms | |
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| Categorical and continuous variables | |
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| Handedness | |
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| Soft drink consumption | |
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| Numerical summaries | |
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| Average soft drink consumption | |
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| The average student | |
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| Data in more than one dimension | |
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| Guessing exam scores | |
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| Who opposed the Vietnam War? | |
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| The normal distribution in one and two dimensions | |
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| Heights of men and women | |
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| Heights of conscripts | |
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| Scores on two exams | |
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| Linear transformations and linear combinations | |
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| College admissions | |
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| Social and economic indexes | |
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| Age adjustment | |
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| Logarithmic transformations | |
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| Simple examples: amoebas, squares, and cubes | |
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| Log-linear transformation: world population | |
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| Log-log transformation: metabolic rates | |
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| Linear regression and correlation | |
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| Fitting linear regressions | |
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| Simple examples of least squares | |
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| Tall people have higher incomes | |
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| Logarithm of world population | |
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| Correlation | |
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| Correlations of body measurements | |
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| Correlation and causation in observational data | |
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| Regression to the mean p45 | |
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| Mini-quizzes | |
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| Exam scores, heights, and the general principle | |
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| Data collection | |
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| Sample surveys | |
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| Sampling from the telephone book | |
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| First digits and Benford's law | |
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| Wacky surveys | |
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| An election exit poll | |
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| Simple examples of bias | |
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| How large is your family? | |
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| Class projects in survey sampling | |
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| The steps of the project | |
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| Topics for student surveys | |
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| Experiments | |
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| An experiment that looks like a survey | |
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| Randomizing the order of exam questions | |
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| Taste tests | |
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| Observational studies | |
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| The Surgeon General's report on smoking | |
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| Large population studies | |
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| Coaching for the SAT | |
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| Statistical literacy and the news media | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Assignment based on instructional packets | |
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| Assignment where students find their own articles | |
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| Guidelines for finding and evaluating sources | |
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| Discussion and student reactions | |
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| Examples of course packets | |
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| A controlled experiment: IV fluids for trauma victims | |
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| A sample survey: 1 in 4 youths abused, survey finds | |
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| An observational study: Monster in the crib | |
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| A model-based analysis: Illegal aliens put uneven load | |
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| Probability | |
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| Constructing probability examples | |
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| Random numbers via dice or handouts | |
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| Random digits via dice | |
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| Random digits via handouts | |
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| Normal distribution | |
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| Poisson distribution | |
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| Probabilities of compound events | |
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| Babies | |
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| Real vs. fake coin flips | |
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| Lotteries | |
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| Probability modeling | |
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| Lengths of baseball World Series | |
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| Voting and coalitions | |
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| Space shuttle failure and other rare events | |
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| Conditional probability | |
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| What's the color on the other side of the card? | |
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| Lie detectors and false positives | |
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| You can load a die but you can't bias a coin flip | |
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| Demonstration using plastic checkers and wooden dice | |
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| Sporting events and quantitative literacy | |
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| Physical explanation | |
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| Statistical inference | |
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| Weighing a "random" sample | |
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| From probability to inference: distributions of totals and averages | |
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| Where are the missing girls? | |
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| Real-time gambler's ruin | |
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| Confidence intervals: examples | |
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| Biases in age guessing | |
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| Comparing two groups | |
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| Land or water? | |
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| Poll differentials: a discrete distribution | |
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| Golf: can you putt like the pros? | |
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| Confidence intervals: theory | |
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| Coverage of confidence intervals | |
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| Noncoverage of confidence intervals | |
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| Hypothesis testing: z, t, and x[superscript 2] tests | |
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| Hypothesis tests from examples of confidence intervals | |
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| Binomial model: sampling from the phone book | |
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| Hypergeometric model: taste testing | |
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| Benford's law of first digits | |
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| Length of baseball World Series | |
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| Simple examples of applied inference | |
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| How good is your memory? | |
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| How common is your name? | |
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| Advanced concepts of inference | |
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| Shooting baskets and statistical power | |
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| Do-it-yourself data dredging | |
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| Praying for your health | |
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| Multiple regression and nonlinear models | |
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| Regression of income on height and sex | |
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| Inference for regression coefficients | |
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| Multiple regression | |
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| Regression with interactions | |
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| Transformations | |
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| Exam scores | |
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| Studying the fairness of random exams | |
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| Measuring the reliability of exam questions | |
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| A nonlinear model for golf putting | |
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| Looking at data | |
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| Constructing a probability model | |
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| Checking the fit of the model to the data | |
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| Pythagoras goes linear | |
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| Lying with statistics | |
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| Examples of misleading presentations of numbers | |
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| Fabricated or meaningless numbers | |
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| Misinformation | |
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| Ignoring the baseline | |
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| Arbitrary comparisons or data dredging | |
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| Misleading comparisons | |
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| Selection bias | |
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| Distinguishing from other sorts of bias | |
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| Some examples presented as puzzles | |
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| Avoiding over-skepticism | |
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| Reviewing the semester's material | |
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| Classroom discussion | |
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| Assignments: find the lie or create the lie | |
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| 1 in 2 marriages end in divorce? | |
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| Ethics and statistics | |
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| Cutting corners in a medical study | |
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| Searching for statistical significance | |
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| Controversies about randomized experiments | |
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| How important is blindness? | |
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| Use of information in statistical inferences | |
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| Putting It All Together | |
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| How to do it | |
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| Getting started | |
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| Multitasking | |
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| Advance planning | |
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| Fitting an activity to your class | |
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| Common mistakes | |
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| In-class activities | |
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| Setting up effective demonstrations | |
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| Promoting discussion | |
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| Getting to know the students | |
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| Fostering group work | |
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| Using exams to teach statistical concepts | |
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| Projects | |
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| Monitoring progress | |
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| Organizing independent projects | |
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| Topics for projects | |
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| Statistical design and analysis | |
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| Resources | |
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| What's in a spaghetti box? Cooking up activities from scratch | |
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| Books | |
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| Periodicals | |
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| Web sites | |
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| People | |
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| Structuring an introductory statistics course | |
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| Before the semester begins | |
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| Finding time for student activities in class | |
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| A detailed schedule for a semester-long course | |
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| Outline for an alternative schedule of activities | |
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| More Advanced Courses | |
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| Decision theory and Bayesian statistics | |
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| Decision analysis | |
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| How many quarters are in the jar? | |
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| Utility of money | |
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| Risk aversion | |
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| What is the value of a life? | |
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| Probabilistic answers to true-false questions | |
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| Homework project: evaluating real-life forecasts | |
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| Real decision problems | |
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| Bayesian statistics | |
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| Where are the cancers? | |
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| Subjective probability intervals and calibration | |
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| Drawing parameters out of a hat | |
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| Where are the cancers? A simulation | |
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| Hierarchical modeling and shrinkage | |
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| Student activities in survey sampling | |
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| First week of class | |
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| News clippings | |
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| Class survey | |
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| Random number generation | |
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| What do random numbers look like? | |
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| Random numbers from coin flips | |
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| Estimation and confidence intervals | |
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| A visit to Clusterville | |
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| Statistical literacy and discussion topics | |
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| Projects | |
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| Research papers on complex surveys | |
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| Sampling and inference in StatCity | |
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| A special topic in sampling | |
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| Problems and projects in probability | |
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| Setting up a probability course as a seminar | |
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| Introductory problems | |
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| Probabilities of compound events | |
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| Introducing the concept of expectation | |
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| Challenging problems | |
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| Does the Poisson distribution fit real data? | |
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| Organizing student projects | |
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| Examples of structured projects | |
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| Fluctuations in coin tossing--arcsine laws | |
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| Recurrence and transience in Markov chains | |
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| Examples of unstructured projects | |
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| Martingales | |
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| Generating functions and branching processes | |
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| Limit distributions of Markov chains | |
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| Permutations | |
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| Research papers as projects | |
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| Directed projects in a mathematical statistics course | |
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| Organization of a case study | |
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| Fitting the cases into a course | |
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| Covering the cases in lectures | |
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| Group work in class | |
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| Cases as reports | |
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| Independent projects in a seminar course | |
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| A case study: quality control | |
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| A directed project: helicopter design | |
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| General instructions | |
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| Designing the study and fitting a response surface | |
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| Notes | |
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| References | |
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| Author Index | |
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| Subject Index | |