Environmental Risk Analysis

Name: Environmental Risk Analysis
Price: 27.74 USD
Availability: InStock
ISBN: 9780071372664

ISBN-10: 0071372660

ISBN-13: 9780071372664

Edition: 2001

Authors: Ian Lerche, Evan K. Paleologos

List price: $94.00

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Book details

List price: $94.00
Copyright year: 2001
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing
Publication date: 3/16/2001
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 421
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.00" long x 1.25" tall
Weight: 1.694
Language: English

Preface	p. xiii
Introduction to Environmental Problems: Transport, Burial, Monitoring, Spillage, Leakage, and Cleanup	p. 1
Transport Problems	p. 6
Burial/Storage Problems	p. 6
Monitoring Problems	p. 7
Spillage Problems	p. 8
Leakage Problems	p. 8
Summary	p. 9
Contracts and Decisions	p. 11
General Development	p. 11
Parameter Uncertainties	p. 13
Numerical Example	p. 16
Discussion	p. 17
Some Properties of a Log-Normal Distribution	p. 18
Exact Statements	p. 18
Approximate Statements	p. 20
Multiple-Parameter Distributions	p. 21
Transport and Burial Hazards of Radioactive Waste	p. 23
Introduction	p. 23
Risk and Catastrophe in the Transport of Radioactive Waste	p. 24
Statistical Measures	p. 25
Analysis of Alternate Actions: Limited Spill	p. 28
Analysis of Alternate Actions: Catastrophic Spill	p. 31
Parameter Uncertainty Effects	p. 33
Means and Variances	p. 34
Relative Importance	p. 35
Relative Contribution of Uncertain Parameters in Subsurface Hydrology	p. 36
Introduction	p. 37
Physical Problem	p. 37
Theoretical Framework	p. 40
Results and Discussion	p. 42
Summary	p. 43
Approximations for Cumulative Probability	p. 45
Utility Theory and Working-Interest Optimization in a Hazardous Waste Transport and Burial Opportunity	p. 47
Introduction	p. 47
Working-Interest Evaluation	p. 48
Exponential Utility Function	p. 50
Parabolic Utility Function	p. 53
Applications	p. 54
Summary	p. 59
Limiting Expressions for Certainty Equivalent	p. 59
Parabolic Approximation to Exponential Utility	p. 62
Catastrophic Events, Insurance, and Unilateral Regulatory Changes	p. 65
Introduction	p. 65
Catastrophic Loss in Exploration Assessments	p. 67
Catastrophic Loss after Oil Is Found	p. 71
Insurance for Hydrocarbon Exploration and Development Risks	p. 73
General Catastrophic Loss Conditions	p. 74
Mathematical Considerations	p. 74
Numerical Illustration	p. 78
Insurance Coverage After Oil is Found	p. 79
General Considerations	p. 79
Numerical Illustration	p. 81
Insurance against Catastrophic Loss for Environmental Projects	p. 82
Optioning against Potential Regulatory Changes	p. 85
Risk Retention	p. 86
Evaluation of Risk Reserve Fund	p. 88
Projects Awarded at One Time Exposed to Liability L	p. 88
Projects Awarded at Different Times Exposed to Liability L	p. 90
Projects of Variable Magnitude Awarded at Different Times and Exposed to Liability L	p. 93
Numerical Illustrations	p. 95
Summary	p. 97
Limiting Risk Using Fractional Working Interest	p. 99
Introduction	p. 99
General Methods	p. 100
Cozzolino's Formula	p. 101
Hyperbolic Risk Aversion	p. 104
Numerical Illustration	p. 105
Results from Cozzolino's Formula	p. 106
Results from the Hyperbolic Formula	p. 110
Comparison of Results	p. 110
Negative Expected Value	p. 113
Summary	p. 114
Limiting Risk Within a Consortium and Foreign Government Projects	p. 117
Introduction	p. 117
RAV Estimates with Uncertainties	p. 118
General Considerations	p. 118
Numerical Illustrations	p. 119
Evaluation of Participation in a Consortium of Companies	p. 128
Evaluation of Participation in Foreign Government Projects	p. 132
Summary	p. 136
Corporate Involvement in Multiple Environmental Projects	p. 139
Introduction	p. 139
Deterministic Portfolio Balancing	p. 140
Relative Importance	p. 140
Profitability	p. 140
Costs	p. 141
Budget Constraints	p. 142
High Budget	p. 142
Low Budget	p. 142
Finding the Best Working Interests	p. 142
The Parabolic RAV Formula	p. 144
The Exponential RAV Formula	p. 146
Deterministic Numerical Illustrations	p. 148
A Budget of $20 Million	p. 149
A Budget of $11 Million	p. 149
A Budget of $4 Million	p. 150
Probabilistic Portfolio Balancing	p. 150
Probabilistic Numerical Illustrations	p. 151
Variable Value	p. 151
Variable Value and Cost	p. 154
Variable Value, Cost, and Success Probability	p. 155
Very Low Budget	p. 155
Low to High Budget Comparison	p. 157
Comparison of Parabolic and Exponential RAV	p. 161
Deterministic Results	p. 161
Statistical Results	p. 162
Transport and Burial of Wastes	p. 164
Multiple Projects	p. 169
Exposure and Expenditure Constraints	p. 171
Corporate Exposure	p. 171
Cost Expenditure	p. 172
Optimal Working Interest	p. 172
Parabolic Utility Function	p. 175
Application	p. 171
Summary	p. 178
Weighted RAV Optimization	p. 180
Apportionment of Cost Overruns to Hazardous Waste Projects	p. 183
Introduction	p. 183
Project Costs and Cost Overruns	p. 184
Numerical Illustrations	p. 186
Identical Projects	p. 186
Unequal Projects	p. 187
Arbitrary Numbers of Projects	p. 188
Summary	p. 190
Bayesian Updating of Toxic Leakage Scenarios	p. 193
Introduction	p. 193
Theoretical Considerations	p. 193
General Concepts of Bayesian Updating	p. 194
Numerical Illustration	p. 196
Updating the Likelihood of a State Being Correct	p. 196
Updating the Probability of Leakage	p. 197
Bayesian Decision Criteria	p. 199
Optimal Expected Value Bayes Decision	p. 199
Expected Opportunity Loss	p. 203
Influence of the Length of the Observation Record on Decision Making	p. 205
Influence of the Form of the Loss Function on Decision Making	p. 206
Summary	p. 210
Multiple Transport of Hazardous Material: Probabilities of Profitability	p. 211
Introduction	p. 211
Statistical Measures for Individual Transport Trips	p. 211
Statistics for a Single Event	p. 212
Statistics for Multiple Events	p. 214
Bayesian Updating of Probabilities	p. 215
Residual Trips and Probability Updating	p. 217
Budget Buyout Considerations	p. 217
Numerical Illustrations	p. 218
Multiple Transport before a Catastrophe Occurs	p. 218
Ship Disaster and Probability Updating	p. 219
Buyout Price and Minimum Acceptable Chance	p. 219
Summary	p. 220
Maximizing Profit for a Toxic Waste Site Monitoring System	p. 223
Introduction	p. 223
Scientific Considerations	p. 224
Financial Considerations	p. 225
Numerical Illustration	p. 228
Summary	p. 229
Option Payments for Future Information	p. 231
Introduction	p. 231
Maximum Option Payments	p. 232
Mean Value Assessment of Option Costs	p. 234
Probabilistic Assessment of Option Costs	p. 235
Numerical Illustrations	p. 236
Mean Value Assessment of Option Costs	p. 237
Probabilistic Assessment of Option Costs	p. 237
Summary	p. 238
The Worth of Resolving Uncertainty for Environmental Projects	p. 241
Introduction	p. 241
Representation of Risk and Uncertainty	p. 244
Application to the Question: Is Value Added?	p. 247
Summary	p. 249
Scientific Uncertainty in Environmental Problems: Models and Data	p. 251
Introduction	p. 252
Continuous Measurements of Hydraulic Head	p. 253
Weighting Factors	p. 253
Parameter Determination	p. 255
Illustrative Example	p. 255
Spatial Changes and Partitions	p. 260
Discrete Measurements of Hydraulic Head	p. 261
Stochastic Determinations	p. 262
General Considerations	p. 262
Parameter Determination	p. 263
Weighting Factors	p. 265
Numerical Illustation	p. 266
Averaging Measures for Hydrodynamic Problems	p. 268
Specific Hydrodynamic Flow Model	p. 269
Discussion	p. 274
Summary	p. 275
General Development of Procedures for N Models	p. 276
Continuous, Perfect Measurements	p. 276
Discrete, Perfect Data	p. 277
Stochastic Measurements	p. 278
Individual Parameter Determination Procedure	p. 281
Measures of Model and Observational Mismatch	p. 283
Human, Water, Chemical, Biological and Radiocative Risks	p. 287
Introduction	p. 288
Natural Environmental Problems	p. 288
Anthropogenic Environmental Problems	p. 289
Examples of Anthropogenic Environmental Problems	p. 290
Resources and Environmental Issues	p. 297
Remediation of Environmental Problems	p. 300
Rules for Addressing Environmental Problems	p. 301
Epilogue	p. 303
Phase I, II, and III Site Assessments	p. 305
Brief Overview of the Federal Statutes of the United States	p. 379
References	p. 423
Index	p. 431
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