Stocks for the Long Run The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies

ISBN-10: 007137048X
ISBN-13: 9780071370486
Edition: 3rd 2002 (Revised)
Authors: Jeremy J. Siegel
List price: $29.95
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Description: One of investing's celebrated icons updates his classic work to reflect today's world and markets. This updated edition includes entirely new data, charts and figures as it provides answers on major issues concerning investors and professionals  More...

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Book details

List price: $29.95
Edition: 3rd
Copyright year: 2002
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Companies, The
Publication date: 6/21/2002
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 388
Size: 7.75" wide x 9.50" long x 1.75" tall
Weight: 2.420
Language: English

One of investing's celebrated icons updates his classic work to reflect today's world and markets. This updated edition includes entirely new data, charts and figures as it provides answers on major issues concerning investors and professionals today.

Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
The Verdict of History
Stock and Bond Returns Since 1802
"Everybody Ought to Be Rich"
Financial Market Returns from 1802
Historical Series on Bonds
The Price Level and Gold
Total Real Returns
Interpretation of Returns
Real Returns on Fixed-Income Assets
The Fall in Fixed-Income Returns
Equity Premium
International Returns
Conclusion
Stocks from 1802 to 1871
Arithmetic and Geometric Returns
Risk, Return, and Portfolio Allocation
Measuring Risk and Return
Risk and Holding Period
Investor Holding Periods
Investor Returns from Market Peaks
Standard Measures of Risk
Correlation between Stock and Bond Returns
Efficient Frontiers
Recommended Portfolio Allocations
Inflation-Indexed Bonds
Conclusion
Stock Indexes
Market Averages
The Dow Jones Averages
Computation of the Dow Index
Value-Weighted Indexes
Worldwide Rank of Individual Firms
Transformation of S&P 500 Index
Return Biases in Stock Indexes
What Happened to the Original 12 Dow Jones Industrials?
The Impact of Taxes on Asset Returns
Historical Taxes on Income and Capital Gains
A Total After-Tax Returns Index
The Benefits of Deferring Capital Gains Taxes
Inflation and the Capital Gains Tax
Increasingly Favorable Tax Factors for Equities
Stocks or Bonds in Tax-Deferred Accounts?
Conclusion
History of the Tax Code
Perspectives on Stocks as Investments
Early Views of Stock Investing
Influence of Smith's Work
Common Stock Theory of Investment
A Radical Shift in Sentiment
Postcrash View of Stock Returns
The Cult of Equities
The Technology Boom
Legacy of the Bull Market
Valuation, Future Stock Returns, and Style Investing
Sources and Measures of Stock Market Value
An Evil Omen Returns
Valuation of Cash Flows from Stocks
Sources of Shareholder Value
Does the Value of Stocks Depend on Dividends or Earnings?
Long-Term Earnings Growth and Economic Growth
Historical Yardsticks for Valuing the Market
Earnings Definitions and Controversy
Book Value, Market Value, and Tobin's Q
Market Value Relative to GDP
The Fed Model of Market Valuation
What Do These Valuation Measures Show?
The Great Bull Market, the New Economy, the Age Wave, and Future Stock Returns
The New Economy and Earnings Growth
Corporate Profits and National Income
Profits in the New Economy
Factors Raising the Valuation Ratios
The Equity Premium
Future Equity Returns
Terrorism
The Age Wave
Solutions to the Age Wave Crisis
Conclusion
Large Stocks, Small Stocks, Value Stocks, Growth Stocks
Outperforming the Market
Risks and Returns in Small Stocks
Trends in Small Stock Returns
Value-Based Criteria
Value and Growth Stocks
Nature of Growth and Value Stocks
Dividend Yields
Distressed Firms
Initial Public Offerings
Investment Strategy
Valuation of Growth and Technology Stocks
The Nifty Fifty of the 1970s
Evaluation of Data
What Was the Right P-E Ratio to Pay for the Nifty Fifty?
Earnings Growth and Valuation
Returns of High and Low P-E Nifty Fifty Stocks
Justified P-E Ratios for Individual Stocks
Conclusion
Corporate Changes in the Nifty Fifty Stocks
Global Investing
Cycles in Foreign Markets
Diversification in World Markets
Hedging Foreign Exchange Risks
Hedging in the Short Run
The Emerging Market Crisis of 1998
Aftermath of Crisis
Conclusion
Economic Environment of Investing
Gold, the Federal Reserve, and Inflation
Money and Prices
The Gold Standard
Establishment of the Federal Reserve
Fall of the Gold Standard
Postdevaluation Policy
Postgold Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve and Money Creation
How the Fed Affects Interest Rates
Fed Policy Actions and Interest Rates
Stocks as Inflationary Hedges
Why Stocks Fail as a Short-Term Inflation Hedge
Fed Policy, the Business Cycle, and Government Spending
Inflation and the U.S. Tax Code
Conclusion
Stocks and the Business Cycle
Who Calls the Business Cycle?
Stock Returns around Business Cycle Turning Points
Gains through Timing the Business Cycle
How Hard Is It to Predict the Business Cycle?
Conclusion
World Events That Impact Financial Markets
September 11, 2001
What Moves the Market?
Uncertainty and the Market
Democrats and Republicans
Stocks and War
Conclusion
Reactions of Financial Markets to Economic Data
Economic Data and the Market
Principles of Market Reaction
Information Content of Data Releases
Economic Growth and Stock Prices
The Employment Report
The Cycle of Announcements
Inflation Reports
Impact on Financial Markets
Central Bank Policy
Conclusion
Stock Fluctuations in the Short Run
Spiders, Cubes, Futures, and Options
Exchange-Traded Funds
Stock Index Futures
The Impact of Index Futures
Basics of Futures Markets
Index Arbitrage
Predicting the New York Open with Globex Trading
Double and Triple Witching
Margin and Leverage
Using ETFs or Futures
Comparing ETFs, Futures, and Index Mutual Funds
Index Options
Buying Index Options
Selling Index Options
Long-Term Trends and Stock Index Futures
Market Volatility
The Stock Market Crash of October 1987
Causes of the Stock Market Crash
Exchange-Rate Policies
The Stock Market Crash and the Futures Market
Circuit Breakers
The Nature of Market Volatility
Historical Trends of Stock Volatility
VIX: The Volatility Index
Distribution of Large Daily Changes
The Economics of Market Volatility
Epilogue to the Crash
Technical Analysis and Investing with the Trend
The Nature of Technical Analysis
Charles Dow, Technical Analyst
Randomness of Stock Prices
Simulations of Random Stock Prices
Trending Markets and Price Reversals
Moving Averages
Testing the Dow Jones Moving-Average Strategy
The Nasdaq Moving-Average Strategy
Distribution of Gains and Losses
Conclusion
Calendar Anomalies
The January Effect
Causes of the January Effect
The January Effect in Value Stocks
Monthly Returns
The September Effect
Intramonth Returns
Day-of-the-Week Effects
What's an Investor to Do?
Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing
Technology Boom, 1999-2001
Behavioral Finance
Building Wealth Through Stocks
Fund Performance, Indexing, and Beating the Market
Performance of Equity Mutual Funds
Finding Skilled Money Managers
Reasons for Underperformance of Managed Money
A Little Learning Is a Dangerous Thing
Profiting from Informed Trading
How Costs Affect Returns
Development of Indexing and Passive Investing
Potential Pitfalls of Indexing
Effect of Overpricing on Returns
Effects of Overpricing on Portfolio Allocation
Conclusion
Structuring a Portfolio for Long-Term Growth
Principles of Long-Term Investing
Return-Enhancing Strategies
Implement the Plan and the Role of an Investment Advisor
Conclusion
Index

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