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Seven Indicators That Move Markets Forecasting Future Market Movements for Profitable Investments

ISBN-10: 0071370137
ISBN-13: 9780071370134
Edition: 2002
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Description: This text covers the key market indicators that truly predict the market movements. It aims to identify what the indicators are, how to interpret and analyse the data, and how to use the data for investing.

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Book details

List price: $32.00
Copyright year: 2002
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
Publication date: 10/19/2002
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 224
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.00" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.144
Language: English

This text covers the key market indicators that truly predict the market movements. It aims to identify what the indicators are, how to interpret and analyse the data, and how to use the data for investing.

Keith Schap has been a writer in the Market and Product Development of the Chicago Board of Trade since early 1993. Schap specializes in writing about the use of derivatives in financial risk management and also in uncovering and developing new ways of using exchange-traded derivatives for these purposes. Prior to his affiliation with the Board of Trade, he served as senior editor of Future's magazine, where he developed market outlooks in interest rate, equity, currency, energy, metals, and agricultural markets and also produced many of the magazine's overall economic outlooks. He also handled the risk management area of the magazine's coverage. During his dryer affiliation with these markets and the general area of risk management, he has contributed something over 300 articles to magazines and journals including Futures, Treasury and Risk Management, Derivative Strategies.

Preface
Market Indicators for a New Investment Era
Who
The Legendary Perfect Trade
Patience, Persistence, and Probability
Concrete, Public, and Forward-Looking
A Market Can't Think, or Maybe It Can
A Glimpse at the Structure of This Book
A Suggestion about How to Use This Book
The Role of the Fed
The Fed's Balancing Act
Where the Government-Sponsored Enterprises Fit In
How the Fed Works
The Fed Is Irrelevant? Guess Again
Two Basic Ideas
Transfer Credit and Created Credit
Fed Funds Spreads Can Shed Light on Future Fed Actions
Defining Fed Funds Futures
Deriving the Market Consensus
Tracking a Shifting Consensus
Shifting from a Stable Outlook to Expectations of Tightening
Tracking a Growing Consensus
Finding the Probability of a Fed Policy Shift
A Valuable Tool
Yield-Curve Shape Changes Foretell Economic Developments
Flatter-Steeper
Yield Curves As Indicators
Accounting for Yield-Curve Shape
Complicating Our Understanding of Yield-Curve Shape
Supply-Demand Pressure Counts, Too
Don't Forget This Is the Information Age
Credit Supply-Credit Demand
The Problem with the Treasury Yield Curve As Benchmark
TEDs, TAGs, and the Credit Story
Pricing Credit in the Bond Market
The Plot Thickens
The Original TED Spread
The Market Took a Longer Look at the TED
Term TEDs Reflect Market Concerns
TAG Spreads Tell the Same Story As Term TEDs
Calculating the TAG Spread
Relating TAGs and TEDs
Volatility--An Indicator of Market Potential
Looking Back and Looking Forward
Scaling Volatility Information to Your Investment Horizon
A More Advanced Idea
A Note on the Psychology of Volatility
Volatility Can Help with Timing
Why Heating Oil Is Relevant
Developing a Sense of How Far Down Down Might Be
Tying Stock Prices to Oil Prices
What the Markets Suggest
A Word of Caution
Futures Price Relationships Enrich the Story
The Basis
The Force of Arbitrage
Commodity Spreads
A Sense of History
The Energy Markets Signal Similar Storage Messages
Gauging the Profitability of Refining
The Time to Act
Commodity Prices--The Next Link in the Chain
The Trouble with Commodity Indexes
Supply Shocks Can Blur Signals
A Demand-Driven Index Seems a Better Forecaster
Copper: Everyman's Economist
A Look at the Futures Price Spreads
The LME Markets Reinforce the Copper Story
Oil Matters in Evaluating the Potential for Inflation
The Trouble with Gold
Changing Rules and Noisy Markets
Deregulating a Good Indicator
The Effect of Deposit-Rate Deregulation on the Relationship between the Yield Curve and Economic Growth
The Treasury Buyback Distorts a Useful Indicator
The Traditional TED Was Not "Too Big to Fail"
Markets Can Get Noisy
Putting the Market Indicators to Work
A Framework for Predicting and Interpreting Economic Events
Investing a Step at a Time
The Yield Spread Provides Early Warning
Reading the Exhibits
Motivating the Use of Aaa Corporate Yields
Industrial Commodity Prices Should Follow the Yield Curve
Credit Spreads Provide Further Evidence
Assumptions about Investing
Market Indicators Prompt Asset Allocation Shifts
The Conflict between Good Policy and Human Nature
Indications of When to Shift Assets
Volatility Can Help You Think about Turning Points
Typical Consumer Behavior Argues for Strategic Discretion
Housing Starts Tell a Similar Story
A Framework, Not a Final Answer
Glossary
Index

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