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Preface | |
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Market Indicators for a New Investment Era | |
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Who | |
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The Legendary Perfect Trade | |
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Patience, Persistence, and Probability | |
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Concrete, Public, and Forward-Looking | |
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A Market Can't Think, or Maybe It Can | |
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A Glimpse at the Structure of This Book | |
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A Suggestion about How to Use This Book | |
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The Role of the Fed | |
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The Fed's Balancing Act | |
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Where the Government-Sponsored Enterprises Fit In | |
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How the Fed Works | |
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The Fed Is Irrelevant? Guess Again | |
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Two Basic Ideas | |
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Transfer Credit and Created Credit | |
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Fed Funds Spreads Can Shed Light on Future Fed Actions | |
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Defining Fed Funds Futures | |
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Deriving the Market Consensus | |
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Tracking a Shifting Consensus | |
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Shifting from a Stable Outlook to Expectations of Tightening | |
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Tracking a Growing Consensus | |
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Finding the Probability of a Fed Policy Shift | |
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A Valuable Tool | |
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Yield-Curve Shape Changes Foretell Economic Developments | |
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Flatter-Steeper | |
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Yield Curves As Indicators | |
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Accounting for Yield-Curve Shape | |
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Complicating Our Understanding of Yield-Curve Shape | |
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Supply-Demand Pressure Counts, Too | |
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Don't Forget This Is the Information Age | |
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Credit Supply-Credit Demand | |
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The Problem with the Treasury Yield Curve As Benchmark | |
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TEDs, TAGs, and the Credit Story | |
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Pricing Credit in the Bond Market | |
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The Plot Thickens | |
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The Original TED Spread | |
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The Market Took a Longer Look at the TED | |
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Term TEDs Reflect Market Concerns | |
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TAG Spreads Tell the Same Story As Term TEDs | |
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Calculating the TAG Spread | |
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Relating TAGs and TEDs | |
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Volatility--An Indicator of Market Potential | |
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Looking Back and Looking Forward | |
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Scaling Volatility Information to Your Investment Horizon | |
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A More Advanced Idea | |
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A Note on the Psychology of Volatility | |
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Volatility Can Help with Timing | |
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Why Heating Oil Is Relevant | |
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Developing a Sense of How Far Down Down Might Be | |
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Tying Stock Prices to Oil Prices | |
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What the Markets Suggest | |
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A Word of Caution | |
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Futures Price Relationships Enrich the Story | |
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The Basis | |
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The Force of Arbitrage | |
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Commodity Spreads | |
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A Sense of History | |
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The Energy Markets Signal Similar Storage Messages | |
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Gauging the Profitability of Refining | |
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The Time to Act | |
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Commodity Prices--The Next Link in the Chain | |
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The Trouble with Commodity Indexes | |
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Supply Shocks Can Blur Signals | |
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A Demand-Driven Index Seems a Better Forecaster | |
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Copper: Everyman's Economist | |
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A Look at the Futures Price Spreads | |
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The LME Markets Reinforce the Copper Story | |
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Oil Matters in Evaluating the Potential for Inflation | |
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The Trouble with Gold | |
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Changing Rules and Noisy Markets | |
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Deregulating a Good Indicator | |
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The Effect of Deposit-Rate Deregulation on the Relationship between the Yield Curve and Economic Growth | |
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The Treasury Buyback Distorts a Useful Indicator | |
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The Traditional TED Was Not "Too Big to Fail" | |
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Markets Can Get Noisy | |
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Putting the Market Indicators to Work | |
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A Framework for Predicting and Interpreting Economic Events | |
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Investing a Step at a Time | |
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The Yield Spread Provides Early Warning | |
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Reading the Exhibits | |
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Motivating the Use of Aaa Corporate Yields | |
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Industrial Commodity Prices Should Follow the Yield Curve | |
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Credit Spreads Provide Further Evidence | |
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Assumptions about Investing | |
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Market Indicators Prompt Asset Allocation Shifts | |
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The Conflict between Good Policy and Human Nature | |
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Indications of When to Shift Assets | |
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Volatility Can Help You Think about Turning Points | |
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Typical Consumer Behavior Argues for Strategic Discretion | |
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Housing Starts Tell a Similar Story | |
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A Framework, Not a Final Answer | |
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Glossary | |
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Index | |